Polls highlight Taiwan's identity
crisis By John J Tkacik Jr
TAIPEI - This Saturday's elections for members
of Taiwan's legislature are likely to continue the
political momentum in Taiwan toward a public consensus
on the island's "national identity" (guojia
rentong). Pollsters at the Taiwan's Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) headquarters told Asia Times
Online that they see a "pretty certain" 113 seats for
the DPP and its allies from the Taiwan Solidarity Union
(TSU). This would give them an absolute but thin
majority in the 225-seat Legislative Yuan. But they also
see wins for six additional "independent" legislators
who are sympathetic to the DPP-TSU agenda. Moreover, by
controlling the presidential office of incumbent Chen
Shui-bian, the DPP potentially can induce the defection
of several Kuomintang (KMT) "nativist" (bentu)
faction members with offers of executive jobs, seats in
the Control Yuan, or state-invested enterprises.
One political observer said if the DPP-led
"pan-green" (after the color of the DPP emblem)
coalition didn't win 125 seats after Saturday's
balloting, he'd buy me dinner. Nonetheless, it is true
that the DPP and TSU are actively working their
constituencies to even out their vote-allotments
(pei-piao) in single-vote, multi-seat districts
in order to maximize the number of legislators they can
elect. And it appears that the KMT pan-blues (after the
color of the KMT emblem) are now trying to cut their
losses by getting several of their candidates to drop
out of the race (known as the qi-bao or the
"abandon-protect" strategy), so that an over-large
number of candidates will not dilute the average voter
support. In short, the DPP pan-greens sound and act as
though they know they are going to win, and the KMT and
the pan-blues sound and act like they are going to lose.
One of the interesting aspects of the current
legislative campaign in Taiwan is how low-keyed it is
compared with the previous legislative campaign in
December 2001. Three years ago, it was round-the-clock
rallies, television ads and general hoo-hah. This time,
Taipei seems strangely subdued, and down-island the
rallies are less frenetic - and less populated.
In Taipei, the campaigning is party-based and
issue-centric. The candidates tout their party ties, and
focus on controversial issues - Taiwan's constitutional
reforms and the tried-and-true guns-'n'-butter debate of
whether the national treasury is better spent on defense
of the nation or on social programs. Paradoxically, the
two major camps have switched sides in the guns-butter
debate, with the "pan-greens" (who now believe they have
a country to defend) clamoring for enhanced national
defenses, and the "pan-blues" (who no longer see
themselves winning the Chinese civil war and would
rather China ruled Taiwan than the Taiwanese), arguing
that no defenses are needed any more.
But
down-island, such as the Changhwa district just south of
Taichung, the campaign seems kinder and gentler. To be
sure, partisan affiliation is important if you're a
green. The campaign flags of the six DPP-TSU candidates
each proudly proclaim his or her party's support. Only
one of the three KMT candidates seems comfortable with
his or her affiliation. The rest are non-committal. One
KMT candidate who spoke to Asia Times Online insisted
that the race in Changhwa revolved around "service to
constituents". Indeed, most of the Changhwa candidates
seemed content to run on the basis of their local
organizations, their personal relations and their
promises to take care of their citizens.
On
paper, there are 19 candidates for Changhwa County's 10
seats. Six minor candidates have already dropped out so
as to boost support for their remaining partisans. The
DPP still has five running (up from four now), and the
TSU has one in the race (up from zero last time). The
KMT has three running, (down from four now), and the
pro-China People First Party (PFP) has one (no change).
According to DPP partisans, all five DPP candidates will
win, as will the TSU man and one pro-green independent.
All three KMT candidates are likely to win, but their
PFP ally will not. One of the KMT candidates was upbeat,
but admitted it would be a tough fight to get the
minimum 40,000 votes to guarantee a seat.
But
the DPP-TSU greens seem to have latched onto a winning
issue in Taiwan's southern marshes - national identity.
While a bit uneasy with the defense spending issue, all
the greens pledged their support for massive
constitutional changes championed by DPP President Chen
Shui-bian. Several of the independents' pamphlets touted
their "native roots" (bentu-gen), proclaimed they
would "work for Changhwa", and one admitted-KMT
candidate, Chen Chieh, carried a flag that said, "Sacred
Ma-Tsu will watch what the people do." (An uncharitable
green supporter explained that KMT vote-buyers make
their voters pledge on an image of the Goddess Ma-Tzu
before giving them a red packet of cash to cast their
secret ballot. A proud devotee of Ma-Tzu is likely to
get a faithful co-religionist vote in Changhwa. Mat-Tzu,
the goddess of the sea, is a supremely important folk
deity in Taiwan.)
If, as the DPP suggests, the
party wins a convincing mandate on Saturday, it will
have profound implications for Taiwan's future - and for
America in Asia. A significant win in the 2004
legislative elections will continue the momentum of the
March 2004 presidential win by the DPP's Chen Shui-bian,
and the 2001 legislative balloting that saw the KMT lose
over half its seats, and the DPP and its allies increase
their presence by over 50%. It establishes that a new
constitution and Taiwan's fast crystallizing "national
identity" are the new mainstream sentiments on Taiwan's
political scene.
It promises to spring US$16.4
billion for defense procurement from the US. It also
presents a dilemma for Washington. Taiwan's
democratically ratified decision to move toward a new
identity will be difficult for policymakers in the the
administration of President George W Bush to resist -
especially in light of the oft-repeated Bush
administration pledge to "support the global expansion
of democracy". It will be much easier for Bush's
Pentagon planners to handle, because they have been
badgering Taiwan to fish-or-cut-bait on its defense
spending ever since the White House approved a $24
billion arms package in April 2001.
Psychologically, it will be very difficult for
the Bush administration to put the brakes on Taiwan's
democracy if, at the same time, it is committed to
arming democratic Taiwan up to its proverbial teeth in
order to defend its independence from communist China.
Very difficult, that is, unless Bush can convince Chen
(and his predecessor and mentor Lee Teng-hui) to
cooperate. And doing that will require an understanding
all around that keeping a lid on Taiwan's aspirations to
independence - until such time as Taiwan can actually
defend itself without US help - is the only way.
John J Tkacik Jr is a resident fellow
in Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation in
Washington, DC. He is a retired officer in the US
Foreign Service who served in Taipei, Beijing, Hong Kong
and Guangzhou and was chief of the China division in the
State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
He has been watching Taiwan politics for 30 years.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales,
syndication and republishing.)
