SPEAKING
FREELY Taiwan's tragic
delusion By Zhiqun Zhu
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Taiwan's
tragedy lies in the fact that despite having almost no
international support for independence, Taiwan's
pro-independence leaders either genuinely or pretend to
believe that out of strategic considerations countries
such as the United States and Japan will lend their help
if Taiwan formally declares independence.
Worse
yet, these politicians continue to mislead many
not-so-well-informed Taiwanese people, especially those
in the south and rural areas, creating a myth that
Taiwan can become a "normal country", permanently
separate from China soon.
When everyone is
taking advantage of the opportunity provided by China's
growth, only Taiwan is trying to disassociate itself
from China. The current Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) regime has been attempting to systematically
delink Taiwan from China by political, economic and
cultural means. The political and cultural atmosphere
has been so poisoned in Taiwan that simply mentioning
unification with China is often considered betrayal of
Taiwan.
While having not changed the status quo
across the Taiwan Strait legally, the DPP government has
on many occasions verbally challenged it. President Chen
Shui-bian's Double-Ten Day (October 10, National Day)
statement that "the Republic of China is Taiwan and
Taiwan is the Republic of China" is a direct challenge
to the status quo and a verbal alteration of the
constitution of the Republic of China (ROC).
Sensing the dire consequences of Taiwanese
independence, top US officials, including President
George W Bush, have reiterated America's policy of "one
China" and non-support for an independent Taiwan. But
the DPP government continues to insist unilaterally that
there is one separate country on each side of the Taiwan
Strait. US Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent
remarks that Taiwan is not independent and that it does
not enjoy sovereignty as a nation are yet another effort
by the US government to curb Taiwan's independence
movement.
Ordinary Americans do not seem to
support Taiwanese independence either. A recent poll by
the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) suggests
that 61% of the respondents were opposed to US military
involvement in a People's Republic of China-Taiwan
conflict, and only 33% would support sending troops to
defend the island. If a conflict were initiated by
Taiwan, probably even fewer Americans would want to shed
their blood to defend an independent Taiwan.
In
the past few months, leaders from Australia, Singapore
and France - all traditional and key allies of the
United States - have openly cautioned Taiwan against
moving toward independence, and have stated clearly that
no country in the region will support Taiwan
independence. Unfortunately, instead of appreciating the
sound advice from other governments, some Taiwanese
politicians have used strong and even vulgar language to
blast all these countries.
If Taiwan's
pro-independence leaders continue to turn a deaf ear to
international concerns, the international community,
especially the United States, should tell Taiwan
unambiguously that Taiwan's pro-independence leadership
will be held responsible for any consequences resulted
from its unilateral change of status quo.
The US
Department of Defense and arms dealers have been
pressuring Taiwan's lawmakers to pass a special budget
plan to finance an US$18 billion arms procurement from
the US. Whatever intentions the United States may have
regarding arms sales to Taiwan, they have often been
misconstrued by some Taiwanese that the US will always
stand by Taiwan in a cross-strait conflict. But there is
no American blank check for Taiwan to fill out.
History shows that the United States only
supports what accords with its own national interests.
Since Taiwanese independence is not in the interests of
the United States, it would be naive to believe that
Uncle Sam is always ready to help a democratic Taiwan
even if Taiwan provokes a cross-strait conflict by
moving toward and formally declaring independence.
The US government, absorbed by the war in Iraq
and the global fight against terror, has worked hard to
keep down tensions across the Taiwan Strait. It is
doubtful that the United States would directly choose
conflict with China over Taiwan, especially in a
cross-strait war triggered by Taiwan's unilateral change
of the status quo. The United States must continue to
promote cross-strait dialogue and state unequivocally to
both sides that only a peaceful outcome acceptable to
people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait will be
supported by Washington. Instead of spending billions of
dollars on purchasing weapons or changing the ROC
constitution, Taiwan should make improving cross-strait
relations a priority.
How to curtail the quest
of some Taiwanese for independence without compromising
Taiwan's democracy and way of life is a challenge for
Taiwan, China, the United States and the international
community as a whole. Realistically speaking, Taiwan's
future lies in China both economically and politically.
The DPP government's attempt to de-emphasize Chinese
history, culture and links is a very short-sighted
strategy. Taiwan cannot and should not lose the golden
opportunity of China's rise. Instead of burning bridges
with China, Taiwan should, as former DPP chairman Hsu
Hsin-liang has suggested, boldly go westward and
collaborate with China during the latter's
modernization. Taiwan can help shape the future of
China. A more prosperous and democratic China with which
Taiwan is closely associated is in the best interest of
the 23 million people of Taiwan. Taiwan's tragedy can
and should be avoided.
Zhiqun Zhu,
PhD, is assistant professor of international political
economy and diplomacy at The International College,
University of Bridgeport, Connecticut.
(Copyright 2004 Zhiqun Zhu.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online
feature that allows guest writers to have their say.
Please click hereif you
are interested in contributing.
