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U-turn politics on EU-China arms
ban
By Axel Berkofsky
BRUSSELS - Long faces in Beijing, but
China will have to be patient, yet again. Or so it
seems after the most recent UK initiative to
postpone the lifting of the European Union
weapons-sales embargo imposed on China in June
1989 after the killing of peaceful demonstrators
in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.
British
Foreign Minister Jack Straw, who some time ago
joined the anti-embargo advocates-in-chief France
and Germany pushing for an end to the EU's arms
ban, seems to be having second thoughts now. This
week he requested a delay on the decision whether
to lift the China arms ban - most observers say it
will eventually be lifted - beyond this June. And
possibly until 2006, British diplomats added,
confirming Brussels analysts' conclusions that
London is determined to avoid a decision during
Britain's upcoming EU presidency, when lifting the
ban would be exceedingly controversial and quite
possibly unpopular at home.
This is the
same United Kingdom that only six weeks ago wanted
"move on" and lift the embargo sooner than later.
Today, unlike the situation just six weeks
ago, China's poor human-rights record and its
refusal to ratify the International Convention on
Political and Civil Rights "are making it rather
difficult to lift the embargo right now", British
officials informed the (rather) confused British
public this week.
To be sure, China's
widely deplored Anti-Secession Law, equipping
Beijing with the legal basis to invade Taiwan
should it move decisively toward independence,
helped to trigger the UK's change of the heart.
China's adoption of the Anti-Secession Law last
week, March 14, had created quite a difficult
political environment, Straw said, seemingly
forgetting that the law did not exactly come out
of the blue. Instead, the law has been on China's
agenda for a number of months and that didn't seem
to matter much in early February when Straw called
for the end of the arms-sales embargo.
This may be the key: The UK will take over
the EU presidency in July, and this week's U-turn
on the embargo, commentators (both supporters and
cynics) agree, falls under
"passing-the-buck-to-others strategies" and
letting others do the "dirty work" of letting EU
members sell arms to China if possible.
France, Germany and other EU members are
keen to sell state-of-the-art military hardware
and technology to China, currently supplied by
Russia, Israel and others.
Currently, Luxembourg holds the EU presidency
and its enthusiasm for placing the embargo issue
on the agenda of the March 22-23 EU Summit was always
lukewarm, at best. Much to Beijing's chagrin, the
issue didn't make it on to the agenda of the
summit at all, despite Beijing's dispatching its
diplomats to the EU Council, European Commission
and European Parliament on a daily basis to lobby
over coffees and lunches for the end of the
embargo.
Chinese Foreign Minister Li
Zhaoxing's visit to Brussels last week did not
lead to a breakthrough on the embargo issue
either. Instead, Li was told by Javier Solana, the
European Union's foreign and security policy
representative, that the EU was "working hard at
finding a solution" while at the same time being
"concerned about some elements of China's
Anti-Secession Law".
Those in the United
States and elsewhere who feared (and made lots of
noise about it) that the embargo would be lifted
this month, however, were in for a (pleasant and
not entirely predictable) surprise because of the
Anti-Secession Law. Prospects of lifting the
embargo did not look good for Beijing since it
became public that China would forge ahead with
the controversial law while at the same requesting
that the EU scrap the embargo ASAP. That kind of
Chinese self-confidence ("arrogance", EU officials
noted), however, turned out to be too much to
swallow, even for the smooth-talking EU leaders
eager to fill the EU-China "strategic partnership"
with genuine content.
The EU Council
(representing the EU member states), joined the
UK's newly minted skepticism about the merits of
lifting the embargo, indicating that this time
Beijing had gone too hard and too far.
"The issue is now more difficult and more
complex, both in substance and as regards the
timeline," Solana's spokeswoman was quoted as
saying in an interview with the Financial Times
this week.
The prospect of postponing the
decision to get rid of the China arms ban is
certainly welcome in the European Commission (the
EU's executive body) as well. Indeed, the
commission recently found itself at a loss as to
how to explaining to the US, the European
Parliament, Amnesty International and the European
public why the EU will get rid of the embargo
despite Chinese human-rights violations,
saber-rattling across the Taiwan Strait - and the
Anti-Secession Law.
Amnesty International,
unlike France and Germany and other China
apologists, maintains that China's human rights
are not getting better but worse. "Harassment and
imprisonment of activists attempting to defend
civil, political and economic rights in China
[are] on the increase, with cases reported in just
the past few weeks," Amnesty wrote in its most
recent report on China (People's Republic of
China: Human Rights Defenders at Risk, December
2004).
The European Commission, too, now
wants (this time for "real", Asia Times Online was
reassured) some answers from Beijing on what will
happen to the hundreds of imprisoned demonstrators
who are "guilty" of asking for free speech and
more democracy 16 years ago. The EU arms-sale code
of conduct - still largely voluntary - says
weapons may not be sold for purposes of aggression
or internal repression.
As in the past,
however, Beijing is unlikely to give in to EU
requests and will not release anyone, calling the
prisoners counter-revolutionaries, traitors,
subversives and a "risk to national security"
instead. Release is a highly sensitive issue
because many leaders in Beijing, both in those in
office and those who are retired but still
influential, played a role in ordering the
violence and imprisonment.
What's more,
China's pressure on the EU to rethink the decision
to put the embargo issue back on to the front
burner, at least, is likely to intensify, Asia
Times Online has learned. Such pressure, however,
can be managed by the EU, Asia Times Online was
told. "It's just a matter of practice," one EU
official confirmed, indicating that Beijing and
the Chinese Mission to the EU won't lose much time
as they work the phones asking for more detailed
"explanations" on the EU's change of heart on the
embargo.
And now even France, avid to
sell arms to Beijing, seems to be caving in,
reportedly revising its "scrap the ban at all
costs" approach. According to Agence
France-Presse, Paris is ready to "compromise" and
has given up insisting on scrapping the arms ban
in June. Italy, Sweden and Belgium joined in and
are "welcoming" the additional time to think about
the pros and cons of equipping China with
additional weapons that could be used against
Taiwan.
Germany, like France an outspoken
supporter of opening the Chinese market to
European weapon manufacturers, has, at least for
now, decided to remain in a "wait-and-see mode".
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, the
Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported, wanted to have a
chat with British Prime Minister Tony Blair during
the EU Summit before joining the EU's political
U-turn on the embargo. Even if Schroeder is still
eager to sell German submarines and tanks to China
sooner rather than later, he is unlikely to push
too hard for the end of the embargo now that
France has seemingly decided to take a break for
reflection from avidly promoting its business ties
with China, come what may.
The Chinese
Foreign Ministry, on the other hand, didn't lose
much time turning to familiar megaphone diplomacy,
calling the arms embargo "political discrimination
not in line with today's reality". Commentators
agree that there is more to come, including the
Chinese request to lift the embargo for the sake
of implementing the as yet imaginary and
essentially undefined EU-China "strategic
partnership".
Although the EU has yet to
confirm officially the expected decision to
postpone a decision on the embargo, Chinese
diplomats are very likely ready to get down to
work "questioning" analysts and journalists on
what it calls the "unfavorable" and "biased"
reporting on China.
Dr Axel
Berkofsky is senior policy analyst at the
Brussels-based European Policy Center. The views
expressed here are his own.
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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