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Anti-Japan protests may
signal power struggle
By Bennett
Richardson
TOKYO - Anti-Japan violence,
statements and other developments in China suggest
the recent political situation in Beijing has been
less stable than outward appearances indicate and
that a hidden power struggle may have occurred
during the past few weeks of unrest.
State-run newspapers in China have
recently suggested that the anti-Japan riots
across the country are part of a plot to
destabilize the Chinese leadership, and have taken
pains to emphasize the conciliatory tone of
Chinese President Hu Jintao during a recent
meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi on the sidelines of the Asia-Africa summit
in Jakarta.
The official Xinhua news
agency reported that Hu made an unusually
accommodating "apology to the past leaders of both
countries" for the recent breakdown in relations
when he met with Koizumi. Analysts say this sharp
contrast with the harsh criticism of Japan by
officials in mid-April suggests a schism exists
between the upper levels of political leadership
in Beijing, who are seeking warmer ties with
Japan, and other elements in the Communist Party
who wish to keep Tokyo at a distance.
"Past mass demonstrations have always had
a political power struggle element to them," says
Ryosei Kokubun, director of the Institute of East
Asian Studies at Keio University in Tokyo. He says
that a similar crisis could be occurring within
the Chinese government: on the one side, with Hu
and and his ally Premier Wen Jibao, and on the
other, less progressive elements within the party
who encouraged the anti-Japan riots as a method of
causing social unrest.
"I don't think the
current leadership of Hu and Wen is really that
strong or secure," Kokubun says. He points to a
reversal in position on Japan policy by Wen from
March to April this year. Following the National
People's Congress in March, Wen laid out three
highly accommodative conditions for future
relations with Japan. He said that future
relations with Tokyo ought to be based on more
political exchange at the top levels, joint
strategic research on bilateral relations, and
dealing with the differing interpretations of
regional history.
This approach, more
amiable than in the past, may have angered
anti-Japanese elements in the Communist Party who
then set about disseminating a "very sophisticated
level" of anti-Japanese propaganda on the
Internet, well beyond the ability of average
Chinese citizens, and mobilizing local party
chapters to orchestrate the recent demonstrations,
says Kokubun.
"Many people observed
that Premier Wen drastically changed his position
in April once the protests began," the
Japanese expert says. "This could be a reflection of
the intra-party situation and an attempt to
stop powerful anti-Japan groups within the party
from trying to escalate the unrest." Xinhua
news reports that Hu is now stressing the need
for "both countries" to appropriately manage ties
as they relate to Asian development and
stability suggest that he and Wen are on the same
wavelength with regard to expanding cooperation with
Japan.
Such an accommodative stance would
also echo surprisingly generous sentiments
expressed at a Japan-China meeting on the
sidelines of an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) summit in Chile last November, when Hu said
he considered both ordinary Japanese citizens as
well as Japanese soldiers to have been victims in
World War II.
"One thing that can be said
with certainty is that there must be a lot of
debate going on [about Japan-related policy]
inside the Chinese government," says Kokubun.
The Chinese government has stepped up its
response to the anti-Japan riots by arresting and
bringing in for questioning dozens of people known
to have participated in the protests. A number of
dissidents attempting to organize another round of
protests for May 4 have also been taken in by
authorities, suggesting that Hu and Wen are now in
the process of reasserting control over wayward
elements in the Communist Party.
Other
moves add credence to the argument that the two
Chinese leaders were actively trying to counter
anti-Japan elements in the period leading up to
the Jakarta meeting with Koizumi. The week before
the meeting, there was a surge in activity on
Chinese government websites, pointing out Japan's
key role in helping build the Chinese economy
since diplomatic relations were established in
1972.
Beijing lost no time in publicizing
an offer from Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka
Machimura to set up a joint study on the
interpretations of regional history - a proposal
designed to address Chinese complaints over the
sanitized treatment of Japanese actions in China
during the war in some Japanese school textbooks -
made despite politically powerful nationalist
historian groups in Japan. Chinese officials also
cited the interdependence of the nations'
economies in directives against unauthorized
demonstrations, saying that boycotting Japanese
goods would only hurt Chinese workers.
Economists estimate that about 10% of
China's gross domestic product (GDP) is generated
by Japanese business activity in the country. The
recent protests have been described as being over
everything from school textbooks that whitewash
the Japanese Imperial Army's wartime rampage
through Asia, to disputed islands in the South
China Sea, to a squabble over gas drilling rights
- all of which remain unresolved after Hu and
Koizumi's meeting in Jakarta.
While that
top-level political exchange between Japanese and
Chinese leaders has helped to slightly ease
pressure over the short term, the reality is that
most of the problems between the two powers will
take time to work out, says Kokubun. But
leadership in both governments - the bulk of the
Koizumi cabinet in Japan and Hu and Wen in China -
seem to know they have a lot to lose from keeping
their distance. More people are beginning to
realize that the idea of an East Asian community
will make little progress unless Japan and China
can get along.
Media polls show a majority
of Japanese citizens wants Tokyo and Beijing to
talk key issues over more, despite conservative
elements in Japan continuing to stoke Chinese ire
with provocative statements and gestures. The
strongly nationalist Tokyo Governor Shintaro
Ishihara has railed against Chinese expansionist
ambitions in response to the riots, while about 80
lawmakers made an ill-timed visit last week to
Yasukuni Shrine, which commemorates a number of
convicted war criminals along with Japan's World
War II dead.
There is a need for an
integrated trade system, cooperation on resource
development and a stable military relationship
between the two nations, says Kazuhiko Ozawa, a
professor of political science in Tokyo. The recent
deterioration in bilateral relations, he says,
shows that a more formal East Asian Community is
needed to boost economic prosperity and regional
peace in line with the model in Europe.
Bennett Richardson is a
Tokyo-based freelance journalist with a special
interest in Japanese defense policy, politics and
modern history.
(Copyright 2005 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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