SPEAKING FREELY
New tactics on Taiwan
By Yiyi Lu

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BEIJING - When China passed its anti-secession law in March threatening to use "non-peaceful means" to prevent Taiwan from achieving formal independence, it received a mass of negative coverage from world media. Report after report predicted rising tension in the Taiwan Strait, making military conflict that may involve the United States a more imminent danger. Beijing was

Off-shore breeze Chinese President Hu Jintao on Thursday proposed new diplomatic language aimed at ending the state of hostilities between China and Taiwan. In a joint communique issued after a meeting in the Great Hall of the People, Hu and James Soong, a Taiwanese opposition leader, endorsed a new formulation of the mainland government's position that cross-strait talks can begin only after Taiwan acknowledges it is part of "one China". Under the new language, Hu effectively agreed to open talks if Taiwan accepted the principle of "two shores, one China", while acknowledging that the two sides might differ on precisely what those terms meant.

criticized for making a blunder that would only alienate the Taiwanese people further and tarnish its own international image. The European Union, already under enormous pressure from the US over its plan to lift the arms embargo on China, expressed concern over the situation in the Taiwan Strait and delayed the lifting of the embargo.

Less than two months later, Lien Chan, the leader of Taiwan's Nationalist Party (Kuomintang), completed an historic eight-day visit to mainland China. Dubbed "the journey of peace", it culminated in a meeting between Lien and Chinese President Hu Jintao, head of the Community Party. A joint statement was issued declaring that both parties support the 1992 consensus on "one China" and oppose Taiwan's formal independence. Lien's peace journey was immediately followed by another from Taiwan opposition leader James Soong. Soong's People First Party also opposes Taiwan's independence and supports eventual reunification with the mainland. Suddenly, the anti-secession law and the subsequent protest march in Taiwan have been completely overshadowed by talk of peace, reconciliation, and prosperity for a united China.

This seemingly rapid transformation shows how wrong the Western media can be when judging the dynamics of cross-strait relations. Rather than increasing tension between mainland China and Taiwan, the anti-secession law actually allows Beijing to adopt a more flexible and accommodating approach toward Taiwan. In dealing with the island, Beijing has always followed the policy of using both hard and soft tactics. While taking a tough line against diehard separatists, it also tries to win the hearts and minds of ordinary Taiwanese. But many analysts think this strategy has not been very successful. As one Taiwanese researcher once put it, Beijing's hard tactics are not hard enough, whereas the soft ones are not soft enough. As a result, the diehard separatists are not deterred while ordinary Taiwanese are not attracted to Beijing's vision of a unified China.

By passing the anti-secession law and proving its determination to prevent Taiwan's secession at all costs, Beijing has finally made its hard tactics hard enough. Now it can afford to make its soft tactics softer by showing more flexibility in dealing with Taiwan and offering it more incentives, such as greater economic benefits and more opportunities to participate in international activities. Events so far suggest that Beijing's new approach has born fruit. Now rapprochement rather than war between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait seems more likely.

Just as they misjudged the impact of the anti-secession law, Western media have again failed to grasp the full significance of Taiwan's opposition leaders' mainland trips. Although recognizing the historic nature of Lien's visit, the first by a Nationalist leader since the group fled to Taiwan in 1949, media analyses have been doubtful as to how much real improvement in cross-strait relations it can bring. They point out that Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) still refuses to accept the "one China" principle, which Beijing insists is the precondition for any direct dialogue. They also highlight the indignation expressed by pro-independence groups in Taiwan at Lien's visit, speculating that political tension will rise within Taiwan between the pro-unification and pro-independence camps.

While it is true that the ruling DPP has not changed its pro-independence policy, the opposition parties' mainland trips nevertheless mark a historic turning point in cross-strait relations. A fundamental shift has occurred in Taiwan politics. Although pro-unification, the Nationalist Party has been sitting on the fence in terms of its China policy since it lost power to the DPP in 2000. Since then, pro-independence forces have been in the ascendancy in Taiwan, giving rise to a political atmosphere in which almost any suggestion of a peace agreement with Beijing will immediately be denounced as treacherous and an attempt to sell Taiwan to the Communist Party. Lien's trip to the mainland is the result of the Nationalist Party finally coming off the fence and staking its political future on developing closer relationships with the mainland and working toward eventual reunification.

The Nationalist Party and its ally, the People First Party, form a majority opposition in Taiwan's legislature. And it is certain that after the mainland trips by the two party leaders, the tenor of Taiwan politics will be irrevocably changed. Reflecting the sentiment of considerable segments of the Taiwan population, especially the business community, which sees closer economic integration with the mainland as the only way to ensure its future prosperity, the Nationalist Party and its allies will be promoting an alternative vision of Taiwan's future to the population that is in sharp contrast to the one offered by the pro-independence forces.

Policymakers around the world that base their China policy on the assumption that war between mainland China and Taiwan is likely, or even that the status quo in the Taiwan Strait will continue indefinitely, need to fundamentally rethink their strategies. Otherwise governments could see their well-planned policies of containing China fly out the window. Recent events have not only boosted the prospect of peace in the Taiwan Strait, but have also given momentum to the reunification of China and the subsequent change of the geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific. At least the US government has been following these events with a keen interest. And President George W Bush has called up President Hu to discuss the current situation in the strait.

Dr Yiyi Lu is senior research fellow on China at Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, a London-based think-tank.

(Copyright 2005 Yiyi Lu.)

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.