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America's China
problem
By Jing-dong Yuan
China is increasingly the focal point of
American policymakers and strategic analysts.
Despite former secretary of state Colin Powell's
rather upbeat assessment last summer of the
bilateral relationship between the two countries
as being the best since president Richard Nixon's
1972 visit to China, the second George W Bush
administration is constantly echoing congressional
sentiments about the China problem, despite its
avowed commitment to maintain a candid,
cooperative and constructive relationship with
Asia's rising power.
As seen in
Washington, the China problem is manifested in
several areas in which the two countries are
increasingly at odds. Leading the pack is what US
policymakers consider to be Beijing's deliberate
attempt to keep the Chinese currency undervalued.
Pegged to the US dollar since 1994, the
undervalued yuan is blamed as an important
contributor to America's economic ills: growing
trade deficits and the loss of jobs.
Increasingly, American policymakers are
also worried about China's growing power and
expansion of influence at the US's expense. The
soon-to-be released Pentagon report on China's
military power once again characterizes China as a
strategic competitor. Beijing is seen actively
pursuing a regional agenda aimed at excluding
Washington, from the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization to the forthcoming East Asian summit
toward the end of this year. Beijing is seen as
more assertive in East Asia, as evidenced by the
passage of the anti-succession law, which could
see the US involved in military conflict in the
Taiwan Strait.
In addition, China is also
building relationships and consolidating ties in
two regions of US negligence, Africa and the US's
traditional sphere of influence, Latin America.
Indeed, there are warnings that America's "war on
terrorism" and its entanglement in Afghanistan and
Iraq has allowed the unimpeded rise of Chinese
power, which eventually will challenge American
interests regionally and globally.
China
is a growing and significant consumer of many
resources. Its appetite for energy and the needs
for feeding 1.3 billion people are bound to drive
up prices and lead to fierce competition for
limited deposits, reserves and supplies critical
for sustained economic growth and comfortable
lifestyles. Chinese companies are buying stakes
and establishing partnerships in Africa, Central
Asia, Latin America and even Canada.
Even
where the two countries could actually show their
cooperation, Washington is becoming impatient with
Beijing's rather weak handling of the North Korean
nuclear issue. With the kind of economic leverage
that China now has, the US has been expecting
Beijing to apply greater pressure - including
reducing or even cutting off key supplies - on its
wayward client to bring the North back to the
six-party talks, a multilateral arrangement aimed
at defusing and eventually resolving the
peninsula's nuclear impasse.
The above
descriptions are rather alarming to some. But they
could also be misleading, by either exaggerating
or distorting the realities. The Chinese currency
is undervalued. But America's economic ills won't
go away without it addressing some of its
fundamental and structural problems, including
lower saving rates. Chinese exports could well be
replaced by lower-wage countries, just as China
replaced the East Asian "little tigers" a decade
ago.
Beijing's good-neighbor diplomacy,
including the promotion of multilateral security
institutions, is largely driven by its interests
in dispelling "China threat" concerns and
developing stable environments for economic
growth. While it is true that China hopes these
arrangements offer alternatives to US bilateral
military alliances, it would be an exaggeration to
argue that Beijing is deliberately challenging and
balancing against US interests. Except for the
Taiwan issue, Chinese anti-hegemony rhetoric is
just that, and no more. China is not the Soviet
Union during the Cold War.
China's drive
for energy security only highlights its
vulnerability, not its "insidious designs". Given
the size of its population, rate of economic
growth and domestic energy production, it is only
natural that Beijing has an inherent interest in
seeking to secure energy supplies and
diversification. It would be strange and indeed
irresponsible if it did otherwise. America's
interest may be better served in assisting China
to improve its energy efficiency and preservation,
and in developing a partnership to deal with
growing energy demands.
China's approach
to the North Korean nuclear crisis is a reflection
of its security policy, which balances stability,
nuclear proliferation and its relationships with
key powers in the region, including the one with
Pyongyang. Beijing has less leverage than
presumed, does not believe the validity of
sanctions, and cannot understand why Washington
refuses even to talk to Pyongyang
China is
rising. That much is acknowledged and accepted.
But must China be a problem? To borrow a famous
line by an international relations scholar,
anarchy is what states make of it; one can argue
that Washington could make China a problem, and
then formulate its policy accordingly.
But
China is also an opportunity. A prosperous,
responsible China playing a positive role in
dealing with global and regional problems is what
Washington should welcome and encourage. Make
China a partner in peace, prosperity and
responsibility. That would serve America's
fundamental interests and those of the region and
the world at large.
Dr Jing-dong
Yuan is research director for East Asia
Non-Proliferation, Center for Non-Proliferation
Studies and associate professor of International
Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies.
(Copyright 2005
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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