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China according to
the Pentagon
By Ehsan Ahrari
The Pentagon's latest judgment on China's
military preparedness is that "China is facing a
strategic crossroads." In a July 19 report, the US
Department of Defense (DoD) stated that, China is
"focused on preventing Taiwan independence or
trying to compel Taiwan to negotiate a settlement
on Beijing's terms". It is attempting to counter
potential US intervention in cross-Strait crises
by building up "an expanding force of ballistic
missiles, cruise missiles, submarines, advanced
aircraft, and other modern systems".
Given
that the report is vetted by the inter-agency
process, it is rather dull reading compared to
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's June 5
statement in Singapore. He then accused China of
enhancing its ability to project power at a time
when it faced no threat.
It is taken for
granted by now that the Bush administration is
watching China's military modernization with
interest. There is no alarmist element in the DoD
report. America's military preponderance is
unchallenged. But as a rising power, China is
keenly interested in narrowing the power gap
between the two militaries.
A very
important aspect of this report is its discussion
of "direct insight into China's strategy". Though
Chinese culture is rather alien to the United
States, a considerable amount of time has been
spent by America's military institutions in
studying ancient Chinese military philosopher Sun
Tzu's perspectives on winning a war, about the use
of deception in peacetime as well as during war,
the necessity of conducting a successful
information battle, and above all the art of
strategic thinking among China's military leaders,
from Sun Tzu to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
In fact, compared to these last two
leaders, the current leadership of China has not
impressed the American side by its original
thinking in the art of war. Still, as evidenced in
this report, the Pentagon is fully focused on
studying China's strategy. The report states, "...
Chinese strategy, as they define it, is one of
maintaining balance among competing priorities for
national economic development and maintaining the
type of security environment within which such
development can occur".
The report notes
that Chinese leaders, from Deng on, have described
their national development strategy as a quest to
increase "comprehensive national power".
"In peacetime, we can expect China to
pursue economic progress as part of its strategy
to build comprehensive national power. It has
established a goal of doubling by 2010 the size of
its economy in 2000 and raising GDP per capita
($1,250 in 2004) to the levels of an 'intermediate
development country' (roughly $3,400) by 2049."
The report adds, "Chinese leaders value
such progress for its own sake, as well as for the
enhancements to military forces and national power
this progress will allow." On this issue, the
Pentagon goes to the heart of the current economic
competition between the US and China and the vital
linkage of this competition to its military
preparedness. No country knows this linkage better
than the United States, which has mastered it in
order to remain at the top of the hierarchy of
nations.
All rising powers use their
economic revenues to build their military muscle.
Britain and the Netherlands did that in the 18th
century and emerged as major maritime powers. That
in turn enabled them to acquire colonies in
far-off lands. More recently, the United States
built its military power by enhancing its economic
power, especially in the period between the two
world wars, and eventually emerged as the most
durable superpower.
The secret of
America's durability is in its constant attention
to ensuring that its economy remains highly
vibrant. The vibrancy of America's economic sector
depends on the sustained ability of its productive
sectors to remain at the cutting edge of
technological development. That reality is
ensured, inter alia, by constantly spending large
amounts of money on research and development.
According to a recent report of the
American Association for the Advancement of
Science, "The (fiscal year) 2005 budget calls for
a $5.45 billion increase in (research and
development) funding over funds for 2004. But
while the size of the total R&D pie will
remain steady (when adjusted for inflation), a
shift in priorities after 9/11 means that 'Them
that's got shall get/Them that's not shall
lose.'''
It added, "Under the Bush
proposal, defense R&D, which already accounted
for more than 55 percent of the federal
appropriations for research, would have an
additional $4 billion - more than three-quarters
of the total funding increase - added to its
R&D budget. The Pentagon, whose research
budget would then total $69.9 billion, would use
the increase exclusively for weapons development."
In the strategic thinking of Chinese
leaders regarding military modernization, the
resolution of Taiwan figures prominently. The DoD
report states, "Some Chinese military analysts
have expressed the view that control of Taiwan
would enable the PLA [People's Liberation Army]
navy to move its maritime defensive perimeter
further eastward and improve Beijing's ability to
influence regional sea lines of communication.
Conversely, some of these analysts believe, the
political status quo with Taiwan constrains
China's ability to project power."
Still,
China as a rising economic power has much to lose
if it attempts a military resolution of the Taiwan
conflict. The DoD report acknowledges that. It
states, "China is deterred from taking military
action against Taiwan on two levels. It does not
yet possess the military capability to accomplish
with confidence its political objectives on the
island, particularly when confronted with outside
intervention. Beijing is also deterred by the
potential repercussions of any use of force
against Taiwan."
In other words, "China's
leaders recognize that a war could severely retard
economic development." At the same time, China
"must calculate the probability of US intervention
in any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. It views the
United States as having advantages over China in
many scenarios involving the use of military
force".
These annual reports issued by the
Pentagon are important in the sense that they
provide insight into the thinking of America's top
military leaders. No one should conclude from them
that China and the US are on a path to
confrontation.
There is no doubt that,
despite its inordinate preoccupation in conducting
a global war on terrorism, the Bush administration
has never lost sight of a rising China and its
long-term implications for America's own
dominance, not just in the Asia Pacific, but also
around the world.
As America spans the
globe, China is the only country that has the
potential to become a challenger, or even an
adversary, if for no other reason than the simple
fact that it also wishes to be a dominant actor.
As long as both sides pursue a general strategy of
accommodation whenever feasible, and continue to
keep the competitive aspects of their mutual ties
at a manageable level, the world is likely to
remain a safe place.
Ehsan
Ahrari is an independent strategic analyst
based in Alexandria, VA, US. His columns appear
regularly in Asia Times Online. He is also a
regular contributor to the Global Beat Syndicate.
His website: www.ehsanahrari.com.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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