China knows its limits in Europe
By Duncan Freeman
BRUSSELS - The recent state visits by
President Hu Jintao to the United Kingdom, Germany
and Spain are the latest steps in a continuing
effort by the Chinese government and its European
counterparts to strengthen their ties, but they
also demonstrate some of the contradictions China
faces in dealing with Europe and its constituent
member states.
Both the European Union and
China have described their relationship as
strategic, although sometimes this seems no more
than a hyperbolic way of saying each considers the other
important. It is perhaps true
that the relationship is more strategic for China
than the EU. The promotion of multipolarity is one
of the key foreign policy aims of the Chinese
government, and the EU is a crucial element in the
policy.
In a multipolar world, a strong EU
would be one of the poles that could
counterbalance the influence of the US. For this
reason careful cultivation of relations with the
EU has been an ongoing process. In many areas, the
EU and China have in fact established strong ties
that go beyond the basic interest in trade and
investment.
Despite progress, relations
with Europe have faced difficulties over the past
year, most notably over the EU embargo on arms
sales to China and also over textile trade. Prior
to Hu's departure, the stage appeared to be set
for a difficult series of meetings, as Foreign
Minister Li Zhaoxing, speaking to journalists in
Beijing, put the case for lifting of the arms
embargo forcefully: "China's position is very
clear. What we are not in favor of and are opposed
to is in fact that this ban involves and reflects
political discrimination. This political
discrimination is not conducive to cooperation, it
is totally useless and should be abandoned. If we
really look at mutual benefit this is what we
should do."
Li's remarks, which were
widely reported in the Western media, seemed to
indicate that Hu would be coming to Europe to make
demands for resolution of outstanding issues
between the EU and China. Yet the comments were
almost entirely ignored in official Chinese
reporting of the meeting with the media, which
focused on the positive aspects of China's
relations with each of the countries Hu was about
to visit.
The message appeared to be that
China would put its view if asked, but was eager
to ensure that the visits were not marred by
public disputes. In fact, at each stage of his
stop, in public at least, Hu seemed intent to
stress that his visit was entirely benign, as was
China's own development. China, he insisted in
speeches, would adhere to a path of peaceful
development, and its emergence represented no
threat.
Since the visits were to the
individual countries, and not at the EU level,
Hu's hosts had a perfectly good excuse to say they
were not an appropriate forum to discuss EU-China
relations. Still, it was impossible to completely
ignore broader questions. In London, Prime
Minister Tony Blair limited himself in public to
saying that the EU attached importance to its
relations with China, and would make further
efforts to address issues of concern to China.
As is well known, the UK government is one
of those most reluctant to move rapidly toward
lifting the arms embargo, although on trade
issues, notably textiles, its stance has been
considerably less protectionist than some of its
European partners. The current Spanish government,
much less close to the US than its predecessor,
may be considered open to adopting a more positive
attitude to China on issues such as the embargo.
When Hu was in Madrid, Spanish Prime Minister Jose
Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said broadly that Spain
would continue to actively press the EU to solve
issues of concern to China at an early date.
It was only in Berlin that the arms
embargo really became an issue, and this was
entirely the result of domestic politics, rather
than the interventions of Hu. The visit of the
Chinese president coincided with the transition
from the Social Democrat Party (SPD) government of
Gerhard Schroeder to the new "grand alliance"
coalition government combining the Christian
Democratic Union (CDU) and the SPD, which will be
headed by the CDU's Angela Merkel. Schroeder
remained chancellor during Hu's visit, and
appeared determined to assert his authority until
the very last minute over policy on China, which
he has spent great effort in cultivating.
Schroeder insisted publicly that Europe should end
the embargo, and that France and Germany should
work toward a "sensible solution".
Merkel
is widely regarded as being far more Atlantacist
in outlook than Schroeder. In almost complete
contradiction of Schroeder's position, the CDU
foreign affairs spokesman stated that lifting the
embargo was not on the agenda of the new
government, and that an improvement in the
human-rights situation and a relaxation of the
Taiwan issue were preconditions for its removal.
Within the confines of focusing on
bilateral matters in each host nation, exchanges
focused on discussion of areas of mutual interest.
In talks with Blair, trade, global security and
the environment were discussed, and the meeting
between Merkel and Hu reportedly focused on energy
and the environment
There was the usual
mixture of business and cultural diplomacy that
accompanies such ceremonial visits. In London, Hu
attended the opening of a major Chinese art
exhibition and in Berlin he attended the laying of
the foundation stone for a Chinese cultural
center.
While Hu was in the UK, business
contracts worth US$1.3 billion were signed for the
sale of Rolls-Royce engines to Air China and the
manufacture of wing parts for Airbus by China
Aviation Industry Corporation 1, and an agreement
was also concluded allowing Lloyd's of London
access to China's insurance market. On the German
leg of his tour a contract was signed for the sale
of 60 high-speed trains to China by Siemens.
Superficially of greater significance was
the "strategic partnership" agreement with Spain.
In fact, this is little more than an agreement to
intensify exchanges in areas such as terrorism,
non-proliferation and UN reform and to expand
economic ties and exchanges in culture, tourism
and education, and is similar to an existing
partnership with the UK, agreed to in 2004.
The one potentially controversial area was
human rights. Public opinion in Europe makes it
impossible to avoid the subject, and it was duly
raised by Hu's hosts. When Hu's predecessor, Jiang
Zemin, visited London on a state visit six years
ago there was considerable controversy, mainly
because British police took heavy-handed action to
stop any protests being visible to Jiang when
proceeding with the Queen to Buckingham Palace.
The action, reportedly at the request of
the Chinese government, only ensured that media
headlines focused on human rights. This time
protests were not interfered with, although they
was studiously ignored by Hu, and the media were
almost totally preoccupied by domestic politics,
Blair having just lost a crucial vote in
parliament on anti-terrorism legislation. On his
other stops, human rights also did not figure
strongly.
One of the difficulties for
China in its relations with Europe, as it has
found over the past year, is that common EU
policies in many areas considered important in
Beijing are often the end result of divergent
views of governments within Europe.
This
can lead to unpredictable outcomes. There is no
guarantee that a European government friendly to
China on one issue will be so on others. To ensure
that EU-China relations continue to develop, China
still needs to cultivate relations with member
states. Relations with individual European
countries are also important in their own right,
since this is where much real business is carried
out.
This is more complex, however, than
playing the Europeans off against each other.
Although European governments will certainly seek
to advance their own interests with China, there
are limits to how far such competition will go in
determining EU policy, which has to be agreed on
collectively.
Hu left Madrid to travel to
South Korea for an important Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) summit this week, where he will
be occupied with relations with the rest of Asia.
He will also play host to President George W Bush
later this month.
China's increasingly
active foreign policy is multifaceted and the EU
will remain a preoccupation. Efforts to cultivate
ties with individual member states will continue.
In December, Premier Wen Jiabao will make a trip
to Europe, visiting France, Portugal, the Czech
Republic and Slovakia.
Even if none of the
big issues were resolved, Hu would probably have
been satisfied with his European tour. China will
continue to make headway in strengthening its
relations with Europe and its member states, but
it may not be able to achieve all that it would
like.
While Europe in general remains
multilateral in outlook, it is not necessarily
multipolar. Although some Europeans may believe
that relations with China could be a substitute
for those with the US, there are in fact a growing
number of voices which call for closer
coordination of EU policy on China with the US.
The traditional alliance across the
Atlantic remains strong, even if it has been
sorely tested in recent years. Given its divisions
and policy preferences, Europe, by its nature and
also by inclination, is unlikely to become a pole
in the world as China may hope.
Duncan Freeman is a writer and
consultant based in Brussels. He can be contacted
at duncanfreeman@skynet.be
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing
.)
