No winners in Taiwan's recall
campaign By Ting-I Tsai
TAIPEI - Taiwanese President Chen
Shui-bian on Tuesday survived an opposition-led
campaign to remove him from office over corruption
scandals and his alleged political incompetence.
Although this put to an end a week-long political
impasse, no one - neither the ruling Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) nor the opposition nor
Chen himself - has emerged victorious.
The
failure to dismiss Chen, analysts believe, won't
change Taiwan's political landscape. While Chen
will remain a lame duck for the remaining two
years of his presidency, the end of the
unprecedented campaign to oust him, on the other
hand, might provide a chance for the DPP and main
opposition Kuomintang
(KMT) to cooperate on passing
some crucial bills in the legislature, analysts
say.
"Unless the opposition initiates a
no-confidence vote against the cabinet, there will
be no major change in the current political
structure until the 2007 legislative elections,"
said Wu Yu-shan, director of the Institute of
Political Science at Academia Sinica, adding that
opposition legislators are concerned about a
possible dismissal before they initiate a
no-confidence vote.
On Tuesday, 119
legislators out of the total 221 voted for Chen's
removal. All of the 119 favorable votes came from
opposition legislators. The ruling DPP's 86
legislators boycotted the voting, while its ally,
the Taiwan Solidarity Union, along with
independent legislators, cast 14 invalid votes.
Although the 119 votes formed a narrow majority,
they fell far short of the two-thirds requirement
needed for the referendum to recall the president
to pass.
Since Taiwan introduced direct
presidential elections in 1996, Chen has become
the first president in Taiwan's history to face
removal proceedings initiated against him.
According to an opinion poll conducted by
the United Daily News after the voting, public
dissatisfaction with Chen and the DPP rose to 66%
and 68% respectively from 63% and 62% previously.
Public dissatisfaction with Ma Ying-jeou, chairman
of the largest opposition party, the KMT,
increased to 58% from 51%. Public dissatisfaction
with James Soong Chu-yu, chairman of the smaller
opposition People First Party (PFP), rose sharply
to 48% from 32% a year ago.
The local
bourse reacted positively, gaining slightly on
Tuesday as investors showed their relief that the
political impasse had come to a peaceful end. But
market analysts suggested political events would
have little bearing on the local stock market for
the time being.
"The market is now looking
forward to the economic development conference on
July 28 and 29 to see what would happen to the
much-talked-about easing of restrictions on
[Taiwanese] investment in mainland China and the
willingness of the government to allow weekend
charter flights" across the Taiwan Strait, said
Peter Sutton, head of research at CLSA Ltd.
After Tuesday's vote, the Presidential
Office issued a statement saying, "In addition to
apologizing to the public that [Chen] himself and
his family had brought about such a great social
cost, he called on all the political parties to
respect the voting result and to actively placate
their supporters in order to restore social
order." Chen also expressed his wish to promote
political consultations and cross-strait peace
talks.
Ma Ying-jeou, however, immediately
turned down Chen's conciliatory offer of talks. Ma
said in a press conference shortly after voting in
the recall motion that Tuesday was "a day of shame
on [Taiwan's] democracy", and the priority for the
DPP was to clean its own house and not hold any
cross-party talks.
The recall campaign
started last month when Chen's son-in-law Chao
Chien-min was arrested on suspicion of insider
trading, and First Lady Wu Shu-chen and Chen's
closest aide Ma Yung-cheng were accused of illegal
financial dealings. While none of the accusations
have been proved and Chen hasn't been directly
linked to any wrongdoing, his opponents insist he
has lost credibility and should resign.
As
part of its campaign, the KMT initiated a
signature campaign early this month, and claimed
it had collected more than 700,000 signatures by
Monday. The campaign has no legal significance.
The recall, analysts said, was more about
an internal power struggle between the KMT and the
PFP. Ma this month showed who was boss by changing
his mind at the last minute on endorsing the
PFP-initiated recall proposal.
Two PFP
legislators, meanwhile, announced they would tear
up their party membership certificates and resume
their KMT association after the recall motion was
voted down on Tuesday.
"The KMT's strategy
has been a mistake, after it decided to endorse
the PFP," said KMT legislator Hsu Chung-hsiung.
"Ma has been hijacked. After the recall aborted,
we hope we [can] stop fighting and provide a
chance for the public to rest." The KMT should
start to pass some legitimate bills, such as the
military budget and livelihood-related bills, he
said.
Some analysts declared that the
recall campaign had seriously damaged the
reputation of Ma, who is likely to run for the
2008 presidential election for the KMT.
DPP legislator Lee Wen-chung has no doubts
that the party will lose in the upcoming three
elections, including the year-end Taipei and
Kaohsiung mayoral elections, the 2007 legislative
elections and the 2008 presidential election.
Another DPP member, who declined to be
identified, warned: "What the DPP needs to worry
about now is how to prevent Chen Shui-bian from
making any more trouble [for the party] ... in the
upcoming two years,"
Ting-I Tsai
is a Taipei-based freelance writer.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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