BEIJING - China might be North Korea's
largest trade and economic partner, but
expectations that Beijing would exert influence
over the reclusive regime of North Korean leader
Kim Jong-il and succeed in persuading him to
abandon his nuclear ambitions are misplaced,
observers say.
This is not the least
because of China's own agenda with Pyongyang that
doesn't always dovetail with the goals of the
international community.
After North Korea
launched a series of provocative missiles this
month, and intensified tensions on the Korean
Peninsula, China deployed a high-level diplomatic
mission to Pyongyang and
pledged to do its best
publicly and behind the scenes to resolve the
crisis. Washington has urged Beijing to ratchet up
pressure on Pyongyang - including cutting off its
oil supply and economic aid - to end its missile
tests and return to international nuclear
disarmament talks.
Officially, Beijing
reacted angrily to the tests, which came a week
after Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao added his
voice to those warning Kim not to launch the
missiles. Pyongyang test-fired seven missiles,
including a long-range Taepodong 2, that may have
the capability of reaching the United States,
prompting Japan to seek a United Nations
resolution authorizing sanctions to be imposed.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed
"serious concern" over the events - an indication
of a grave degree of displeasure in Chinese
diplomatic parlance, according to analysts, and
one conveyed to the North for the first time in
relation to a missile test. Nevertheless,
Beijing is unlikely to act harshly. "China will
not put pressure on North Korea - either publicly
or privately, by cutting its financial aid or oil
shipments - because it would hurt its own
relations with North Korea," said Chu Shulong,
professor of international relations at the
Beijing Tshinghua University.
"What
Beijing worries about is that the missile tests
would deprive it of the opportunity to act as a
negotiator at the six-party talks and would lead
to a situation where China would not be able to
help North Korea to avoid sanctions."
While China has initiated and proudly
hosted a series of six-party talks aimed at ending
North Korea's nuclear weapons ambitions, Beijing
has acted in understanding that not hosting such
talks would have been tantamount to leaving the
North Korean issue to be dealt with at the United
Nations Security Council.
For years,
Beijing has tried to prevent referral of its old
ideological ally to the Security Council for fear
that a vote on sanctions on the North over its
nuclear program would see China, which holds a
veto power, overtly pitted against the US and
other Western powers.
This week, China put
forward in the Security Council a non-binding
resolution on Pyongyang's missile provocation, but
asked the vote on sanctions to be delayed while
its visits Pyongyang.
While China and
North Korea's alliance goes back to the communism
heydays of the 1950s, these days Beijing's staunch
support for Kim's anachronistic regime has little
to do with ideology. In recent years, China has
become North Korea's main trading partner and its
biggest investor, contributing the lion's share of
the foreign investment into the North's
floundering economy.
"Beijing is genuine
in wanting to have the Korean peninsula free of
nuclear weapons but Chinese leaders don't
prioritize their objectives," said one Chinese
analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"The North has a lot to offer to China's
economy, such as minerals and untapped water
resources, also cheap labor and available ports.
Beijing wants to have access to all these and in
order to achieve this it needs to support the
current regime."
Not unlike its economic
courtship of Sudan and Iran - two other countries
seen as "rogue regimes" by the US and where
China's presence has provoked international
concern, Beijing is spearheading a revival of
North Korea's decrepit infrastructure and
industries. Analysts speak of US$50 billion worth
of Chinese investment being channeled into the
North's economy.
They say Beijing's
economic foray into the North was decided and
sealed during Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit
to Pyongyang last October and during the
reciprocal visit to China by Kim in January. Kim
was accompanied by Hu on a secretive nine-day tour
of China, which took him to some of the country's
showcases of economic success, such as the
southern economic zone of Shenzhen and the
financial hub of Shanghai.
It is unclear
whether Pyongyang's missiles launch happened
because or despite of Beijing's deal on economic
cooperation with North Korea. "China was opposed
to the tests and unhappy that they happened," Chu
asserts.
A delegation led by Vice Premier
Hui Liangyu is on a five-day visit of North Korea
this week to mark the 45th anniversary of a
bilateral friendship treaty between the two
countries. The group, however, includes also
China's top nuclear weapons negotiator, Wu Dawei,
who leads China's team in the six-nation talks on
persuading the North to end its nuclear program.
"It is time for China to exert its
influence that it does have on North Korea," US
Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns was quoted
as saying this week.
The last round of
six-party talks that included South Korea, Russia,
Japan and the US ended in November without
agreement after the parties had signed a September
2005 declaration calling for a nuclear-free Korean
peninsula.
"It would be really hard for
Beijing to revive the stalled talks," said Shi
Yinhong, political observer with China People's
University in Beijing. "The main difficulty is the
US attitude towards North Korea. After the signing
of the 2005 statement, Washington's acts towards
Pyongyang caught everybody by surprise and caused
those who supported the talks in the North to be
silenced."
Early this year, the US riled
Pyongyang by forcing Macau's Banco Delta Asia to
cease business with North Korea because of
accusations of money laundering and
counterfeiting. Some observers say the latest
series of missiles are aimed at winning
concessions from Washington as Pyongyang's price
for returning to the six-party talks.
North Korea has insisted on holding
bilateral talks with the US - a demand that
Washington has so far resisted, replying it would
negotiate with Pyongyang within the framework of
the six-party talks.
However, Washington's
recent agreement to hold bilateral negotiations
with Iran, which US President George W Bush has
ranked along with North Korea as part of the "axis
of evil", might have ignited hopes that the same
concession would be made for North Korea.
