AMERICA'S ACUPUNCTURE
POINTS PART 1:
Striking the US where it
hurts By Victor N Corpus
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A noted Chinese
theorist on modern warfare, Chang Mengxiong,
compared China's form of fighting to "a Chinese
boxer with a keen
knowledge of vital body
points who can bring an opponent to his
knees with a minimum of
movements". It is like key acupuncture points in
ancient Chinese medicine. Puncture one vital point
and the whole anatomy is affected. If America ever
goes to war with China, say, over Taiwan, then
America should be prepared for the following
"acupuncture points" in its anatomy to be
"punctured". Each of the vital points can bring
America to its knees with a minimum of effort.
I Electro-magnetic Pulse (EMP)
attack China and Russia are two potential
US adversaries that have the capability for this
kind of attack. An EMP attack can either come from
an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a
submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), a
long-range cruise missile, or an orbiting
satellite armed with a nuclear or non-nuclear EMP
warhead. A nuclear burst of one (or more) megaton
some 400 kilometers over central United States
(Omaha, Nebraska) can blanket the whole
continental US with electro-magnetic pulse in less
than one second.
An EMP attack will damage
all electrical grids on the US mainland. It will
disable computers and other similar electronic
devices with microchips. Most businesses and
industries will shut down. The entire US economy
will practically grind to a halt. Satellites
within line of sight of the EMP burst will also be
damaged, adversely affecting military command,
control, communications, computers, intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR).
Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles
will be rendered unserviceable in their silos.
Anti-ballistic missile defenses will suffer the
same fate. In short – total blackout. And
American society as we know it will be thrown back
to the Dark Ages.
Of course, the US may
decide to strike first, but China and Russia now
have the means of striking back with
submarine-launched ballistic missiles with the
same or even more devastating results. But knowing
China's strategy of "active defense", when war
with the US becomes imminent, China will surely
not allow itself to be targeted first. It will
seize the initiative as mandated by its doctrine
by striking first.
China has repeatedly
announced that it will not be the first to use
nuclear weapons. But as an old Chinese saying
goes: "There can never be too much deception in
war." If it means the survival of the whole
Chinese nation that is at stake, China will surely
not allow a public statement to tie its hands and
prevent it from seizing the initiative. As another
saying goes: "All is fair in love and war."
2 Cyber attack America is the
most advanced country in the world in the field of
information technology (IT). Practically all of
its industries, manufacturing, business and
finance, telecommunications, key government
services and defense establishment rely heavily on
computers and computer networks.
But this
heavy dependence on computers is a double-edged
sword. It has thrust the US economy and defense
establishment ahead of all other countries; but it
has also created an Achilles' heel that can
potentially bring the superpower to its knees with
a few keystrokes on a dozen or so laptops.
China's new concept of a "people's war"
includes IT warriors coming, not only from its
military more than 2-million strong, but from the
general citizenry of some 1.3 billion people. If
we add the hackers and information warriors from
Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria
and other countries sympathetic to China, the
cyber attack on the US would be formidable indeed.
So, if a major conflict erupts between
China and America, more than a few dozen laptops
will be engaged to hack America's military
establishment; banking system; stock exchange;
defense industries; telecommunication system;
power grids; water system; oil and gas pipeline
system; air traffic and train traffic control
systems; C4ISR system, ballistic missile system,
and other systems that prop up the American way of
life.
America, on the whole, has not
adequately prepared itself for this kind of
attack. Neither has it prepared itself for a
possible EMP attack. Such attacks can bring a
superpower like America to its knees with a
minimum of movement.
3 Interdiction of
US foreign oil supply America is now 75%
dependent on foreign imported oil. About 23.5% of
America's imported oil supply comes from the
Persian Gulf. To cut off this oil supply, Iran can
simply mine the Strait of Hormuz, using
bottom-rising sea mines. It is worthwhile to note
that Iran has the world's fourth-largest inventory
of sea mines, after China, Russia and the US.
Combined with sea mines, Iran can also
block the narrow strait with supersonic cruise
missiles such as Yakhonts, Moskits, Granits and
Brahmos deployed on Abu Musa Island and all along
the rugged and mountainous coastline of Iran
fronting the Persian Gulf. This single action can
bring America to its knees. Not only America but
Japan (which derives 90% of its oil supply) and
Europe (which derives about 60% of its oil supply
from the Persian Gulf ) will be adversely
affected.
In the event of a major conflict
involving superpower America and its allies
(primarily Japan and Britain) on the one hand and
China and its allies (primarily Russia and Iran)
on the other, Iran's role will become
strategically crucial. Iran can totally stop the
flow of oil coming from the Persian Gulf. This is
the main reason why China and Russia are carefully
nurturing intimate economic, cultural, political,
diplomatic and military ties with Iran, which at
one time was condemned by US President George W
Bush as belonging to that "axis of evil", along
with Iraq and North Korea.
This is also
the reason why Iran is so brave in daring the US
to attack it on the nuclear proliferation issue.
Iran knows that it has the power to hurt the US.
Without oil from the Gulf, the war machines of the
US and its principal allies will literally run out
of gas.
A single blow from Iran or China
or Russia, or a combination of the three at the
Strait of Hormuz can paralyze America. In
addition, Chinese and Russian submarines can stop
the flow of oil to the US and Japan by
interdicting oil tanker traffic coming from the
Middle East, Africa and Latin America. On the
other hand, US naval supremacy will have minimal
effect on China's oil supply because it is already
connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will
soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.
One wonders: what will be the price of oil
if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. It will
surely drive oil prices sky high. Prolonged high
oil prices can, in turn, trigger inflation in the
US and a sharp decline of the dollar, possibly
even a dollar free-fall. The collapse of the
dollar will have a serious impact on the entire US
economy.
This brings us to the next
"acupuncture point" in the US anatomy: dollar
vulnerability.
4 Attack on the US
dollar One of the pillars propping up US
superpower status and worldwide economic dominance
is the dollar being accepted as the predominant
reserve currency. Central banks of various
countries have to stock up dollar reserves because
they can only buy their oil requirements and other
major commodities in US dollars.
This US
economic strength, however, is a double-edged
sword and can turn out to be America's economic
Achilles' heel. A run of the US dollar, for
instance, which would cause a dollar free-fall,
can bring the entire US economy toppling down.
What is frightening for the US is the fact
that China, Russia and Iran possess the power to
cause a run on the US dollar and force its
collapse.
China is now the biggest holder
of foreign exchange reserves in the world,
accumulating $941 billion as of June 30 and
expected to exceed a trillion dollars by the end
of 2006 - a first in world history. A decision by
China to shift a major portion of its reserve to
the euro or the yen or gold could trigger other
central banks to follow suit. Nobody would want to
be left behind holding a bagfull of dollars
rapidly turning worthless. The herd psychology
would be very difficult to control in this case
because national economic survival would be at
stake.
This global herd psychology
motivated by the survival instinct will be
strongly reinforced by the latent anger of many
countries in the Middle East, Eurasia, Southeast
Asia, Africa and Latin America that silently abhor
the pugnacious arrogance displayed by the lone
Superpower in the exercise of its unilateral and
militaristic foreign policies. They will just be
too happy to dump the dollar and watch the lone
Superpower squirm and collapse.
The danger
of the dollar collapsing is reinforced by the
mounting US current account deficit, which
sky-rocketed to $900 billion at an annual rate in
the fourth quarter of 2005. This figure is 7% of
US gross domestic product (GDP), the largest in US
history. The current account deficit reflects the
imbalance of US imports to its exports. The large
imbalance shows that the US economy is losing its
competitiveness, with US jobs and incomes
suffering as a result.
These record
deficits in external trade and current accounts
mean that the US has to borrow from foreign
lenders (mostly Japan and China) $900 billion
annually or nearly $2.5 billion every single day
to finance the gap between payments and receipts
from the rest of the world. In financial year
2005, $352 billion was spent on interest payment
of national debt alone - a national debt that has
ballooned to $8.5 trillion as of August 24.
The International Monetary Fund has
warned: "The US is on course to increase its net
external liabilities to around 40% of its GDP
within the next few years - an unprecedented level
of external debt for a large industrial country."
The picture of the US federal budget
deficit is equally grim. Dennis Cauchon, writing
for USA Today said:
The federal government keeps two
sets of books. The set the government promotes
to the public has a healthier bottom line: a
$318 billion deficit in 2005. The set the
government doesn't talk about is the audited
financial statement produced by the government's
accountants following standard accounting rules.
It reports a more ominous financial picture: a
$760 billion deficit for 2005. If social
security and medicare were included - as the
board that sets accounting rules is considering
- the federal deficit would have been $3.5
trillion. Congress has written its own
accounting rules - which would be illegal for a
corporation to use because they ignore important
costs such as the growing expense of retirement
benefits for civil servants and military
personnel. Last year, the audited statement
produced by the accountants said the government
ran a deficit equal to $6,700 for every American
household. The number given to the public put
the deficit at $2,800 per household ... The
audited financial statement - prepared by the
Treasury Department - reveals a federal
government in far worse financial shape than
official budget reports indicate, a USA Today
analysis found. The government has run a deficit
of $2.9 trillion since 1997, according to the
audited number. The official deficit since then
is just $729 billion. The difference is equal to
an entire year's worth of federal spending.
The huge US current account and trade
deficits, the mounting external debt and the
ever-increasing federal budget deficits are clear
signs of an economy on the edge. They have dragged
the dollar to the brink of the precipice. Such a
state of economic affairs cannot be sustained for
long, and the stability of the dollar is put in
grave danger. One push and the dollar will plunge
into free-fall. And that push can come from China,
Russia or Iran, whom superpower America has been
pushing and bullying all along.
We have
seen what China can do. How can Russia or Iran, in
turn, cause a dollar downfall? On September 2,
2003, Russia and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement
on oil and gas cooperation. Russia and Saudi
Arabia have agreed "to exercise joint control over
the dynamics of prices for raw materials on
foreign markets". The two biggest oil and gas
producers, in cooperation, say, with Iran, could
control oil production and sales to keep the price
of oil relatively high. Sustained high oil prices,
in turn, could trigger a high inflation rate in
the US and put extreme pressure on the already
weak dollar to trigger a more rapid decline.
Russia is now the world's biggest energy
supplier, surpassing Saudi Arabia in energy
exports measured in barrel oil equivalent or boe
(13.3 million boe per day for Russia vs 10 million
boe per day for Saudi Arabia). Russia has the
biggest gas reserves in the world. Iran, on the
other hand, runs second in the world to Russia in
gas reserves, and also ranks among the top oil
producers. If and when either Russia or Iran, or
both, shift away from a rapidly declining dollar
in energy transactions, many oil producers will
follow suit. These include Venezuela, Indonesia,
Norway, Sudan, Nigeria and the Central Asian
Republics.
There is a good chance that
even Saudi Arabia and the other oil-exporting
countries in the Middle East may follow suit. They
wouldn't want to be left with fast-shrinking
dollars when the shift from petro-dollar to
euro-dollar occurs. Again, the herd psychology
will come into play, and the US will eventually be
left with a dollar that is practically worthless.
Considering the strong anti-American sentiments in
the world caused by American unilateralism,
especially in the Middle East, a concerted effort
to dump the dollar in favor of the euro becomes
even more plausible.
When the dollar was
removed from the gold standard in August 1971, the
dollar gained its strength through its use as the
currency of choice in oil transactions. Once the
dollar is rejected in favor of the euro or another
currency for global oil transactions, the dollar
will rapidly lose its value and central banks all
over the world will be racing to diversify to
other currencies. The shift from petro-dollar to
petro-euro will have a devastating effect on the
dollar. It could cause the dollar to collapse; and
the whole US economy crushing down with it - a
scene reminiscent of the collapse of the Twin
Towers on September 11, 2001. But this one will be
a thousand times more devastating.
A
successful assault on the US dollar will make
America crawl on its knees with a minimum of
movements. And this assault can come from China,
Russia or Iran - or a combination of the three -
if they ever decide that they have had enough of
US bullying.
5 Diplomatic isolation In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed from
its own weight, the US emerged as the sole
superpower in the world. At that crucial period,
it would have been a great opportunity for the US
to establish its global leadership and dominance
worldwide. With the world's biggest economy, its
control of international financial institutions,
its huge lead in science and technology (specially
information technology) and its unequaled military
might, America could have seized the moment to
establish a truly American Century.
But in
the critical years after 1991, America had to make
a choice between two divergent approaches to the
use of its almost unlimited power: soft power or
hard power. The exercise of soft power would have
seen America leading the world in the fight
against poverty, disease, drugs, environmental
degradation, global warming and other ills
plaguing humankind.
It would have pushed
America in leading the move to address the debt
burden of poor, undeveloped or developing
countries; promoting distance learning in remote
rural areas to empower the poor economically by
providing them access to quality education; and
helped poor countries in Asia, Africa and Latin
America build highways, railways, ports, airports,
hospitals, schools and telecommunication systems.
Unfortunately, such was not to be. If
there was any effort at the exercise of soft power
at all, it was minimal. In fact, it is not America
which is practicing soft power in diplomacy but a
rising power in the East - China. China has been
busy in the past decade or so exercising soft
power in almost all countries in Africa, Latin
America, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia
and the Middle East, winning most of the countries
in these regions to its side. Through the use of
soft power, China has created a de facto global
united front under its silent, low-key leadership.
The US, on the other hand, decided to
employ mainly hard power in the exercise of its
global power. It adapted the policy of
unilateralism and militarism in its foreign
policy. It discarded the United Nations and even
the advice of close allies. It unilaterally
discarded signed international treaties (such as
the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty). It adapted the
policy of regime change and preventive war. It led
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the
78-day bombing of Serbia purportedly for
"humanitarian" reasons. It invaded Afghanistan and
Iraq without UN sanctions and against the advice
of key European allies like France and Germany.
The US-led war in Iraq was a tactical
victory for the US initially, but has resulted in
strategic defeat overall. The Iraq war caused the
US to lose its principal allies in Europe and be
isolated, despised and hated in many parts of the
world. Without too many friends and allies, the US
is likened to an "emperor with no clothes".
So in a major conflict between America and
China, isolated America cannot possibly win
against a global united front led by China and
Russia.
This brings us to the question of
alliances, another "acupuncture point" in the
anatomy of the superpower, which will be addressed
in the second part of this report.
Tomorrow, Part 2: Faced with a
China-Russia-Iran triumvirate
Victor N Corpus is a
retired brigadier general of the Armed Forces of
the Philippines (AFP); former chief of
the Intelligence Service, AFP; and holds a master's degree
in public administration from the Kennedy School
of Government, Harvard University.
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Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
