If America ever goes to
war with China, Chinese military doctrine suggests
the US should expect attacks on a number of key
points where it is particularly vulnerable - where
a single jab would paralyze the entire nation.
China would aim at targets such as the US
electricity grid, its computer networks, its oil
supply routes, and the dollar. Other vital
"acupuncture" points are outlined below. 1
A powerful triumvirate No one ever imagined
before 1991 that China and Russia would
come
together to form a close-knit alliance
politically, diplomatically and, most important of
all, militarily. For more than three decades
before the break-up of the Soviet Union, China and
the USSR had been bitter rivals, even going into a
shooting war with each other along their common
border.
But now the picture has changed
completely. China and Russia have embraced one
another and help each other ward off the military
advances of the lone superpower in their
respective backyards. In fact, it was a series of
strategic blunders by the superpower that forced
China and Russia into each other's arms. How so?
When the Soviet Union disintegrated in
1991, it would have been the best time for the US
to use soft power to win over Russia into the
Western fold. Russia at that time was an economic
basket case, with the price of oil at $9 per
barrel. But the promises of economic assistance
from the US and Europe proved empty, and the
Russian oligarchs were the main beneficiaries of
relations with the Western powers.
NATO
and EU then slowly advanced eastward, absorbing
many of the countries making up the former Warsaw
Pact alliance. Serbia, a close ally of Russia, was
subjected to 78 days of continuous air
bombardment. Regime changes were instigated by US
and Western-financed non-governmental
organizations in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan -
all former Soviet republics and considered
Russia’s backyard - giving Russia a feeling of
strategic encirclement by the US and its allies.
There was also the invasion of Afghanistan and
Iraq, followed by the establishment of US bases
and deployment of troops in Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan.
These aggressive geopolitical
moves by the US pushed Russia into the waiting
arms of China, which badly needed Russian energy
resources, modern weapon systems and military
technology as a consequence of the US-led arms
embargo imposed after the Tienanmen incident.
Furthermore, China also needed a reliable and
militarily capable ally in Russia because of the
perceived threat of the US.
Reinforcing
this Chinese perception was the outrageously
wanton bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade
by US-led NATO forces in 1999; the spy plane
incident in 2001; the unilateral withdrawal of the
US from the ABM Treaty in 2002; the enhanced
military cooperation between the US and Japan; the
inclusion of Taiwan in the Theater Missile Defense
program.; the setting up of a military base in
Kyrgyzstan which is only some 250 miles from the
Chinese border near Lop Nor, China’s nuclear
testing ground.
Add to that the
announcement of President George W Bush that the
US would come to the aid of Taiwan in the event
that China uses force against it; the sending of
two aircraft carrier battle groups to waters near
Taiwan in 1995-1996; and the naval show of
strength of seven aircraft carrier battle groups
converging off the China coast in August 2004. All
these aggressive moves by superpower America
pushed China to embrace its former bitter rival,
Russia.
Both China and Russia needed a
secure and reliable rear; and both are ideally
positioned to provide it. Moreover, their
strengths ideally complement each other. It must
be borne in mind that both are nuclear powers. The
abundant energy resources of Russia ensures that
China will not run out of gas in a major conflict
- a strategic advantage over the US and its key
allies.
Russia is also supplying China
with many of the modern armaments and military
technology it needs to modernize its defense
sector. This effectively militates against the
arms embargo imposed by the US and the EU on
China. Russia in turn needs the increased trade
with China, China’s financial clout and
assistance, and manufactured goods.
The
coming together of China and Russia was one of the
most earth-shaking geopolitical events of modern
times. Yet hardly anyone noticed the transition
from bitter enemity to a solid geopolitical,
economic, diplomatic and military alliance. The
combined strengths of the two regional powers
surely surpass that of the former Warsaw Pact. If
we add Iran to the equation, we have a triumvirate
that can pose a formidable challenge to the lone
superpower. Iran is the most industrialized and
the most populous nation in the Middle East. It is
second only to Russia in terms of gas resources
and also one of the largest oil producers in the
world. It is also one of the most mountainous
countries in the world, which makes it ideal for
the conduct of asymmetric and guerrilla warfare
against a superior adversary.
Iran borders
both the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, two of
the richest oil and gas regions of the world. Most
importantly, it controls the gateway to the
Persian Gulf - the Strait of Hormuz. Modern
bottom-rising, rocket propelled sea mines and
supersonic cruise missiles deployed along the long
mountainous coastline of Iran, manned by
"invisible" guerrillas, could indefinitely stop
the flow of oil from the Gulf, from which the US
gets 23% of its imported oil.
Japan also
derives 90% of its oil from the Persian Gulf area,
and Europe about 60%. In a major conflict, Iran
can effectively deprive the US war machine and
those of its key allies of much needed energy
supplies.
Imagine the war machine of the
superpower running out of gas. Imagine also a US
economy minus 23% of its imported oil. This 23%
can rise considerably once Chinese and Russian
submarines start sinking US-bound oil tankers. The
triumvirate of China, Russia, and Iran could bring
the US to its knees with a minimum of movement.
2 The US's geopolitical
disadvantage Another "acupuncture point"
in America’s anatomy in the event of a major
conflict with China (and Russia) is its inherent
disadvantage dictated by geography. Being the lone
superpower, any major conventional conflict
involving the US will necessitate its bringing its
forces to bear on its adversaries. This means that
the US must cross the Pacific, Indian, and/or
Atlantic Oceans in order to bring logistics or
troop reinforcements to the battlefield.
In so doing, the US will be crossing
thousands of miles of sea lanes of communication
(SLOC) that can easily become a gauntlet of deadly
Chinese and Russian submarines lying in ambush
with bottom-rising sea mines, supercavitating
rocket torpedoes, and supersonic cruise missiles
that even aircraft carrier battle groups have no
known defense against. Logistic and transport
ships and oil tankers are particularly vulnerable.
The air corridors above these sea lanes
will also be put at great risk by advanced air
defense systems aboard Sovremenny destroyers or
similar types of warships in Chinese and Russian
inventories. In short, the US will be forced by
geography to suffer all the disadvantages of
conducting offensive operations against
adversaries in Eurasia.
Of course, the US
has "forces in being" and "logistics in place" in
numerous military bases scattered around the
world, especially those strategically encircling
China, Russia, and Iran. But when the shooting war
starts, these bases will be the first to be hit by
barrages of short- and medium-range ballistic
missiles and long-range land-attack cruise
missiles armed with electro-magnetic pulse,
anti-radar, thermobaric, and conventional
warheads.
Following the missile barrages,
the remnants of such weakened US military bases
will easily be overwhelmed by blitzkrieg assaults
from Russian and Chinese armored divisions in the
Eurasian mainland. China, for instance, has four
large armored units constantly on standby, poised
to cross the Yili Corridor in Xinjiang province at
a moment’s notice. The US base in Kyrgyzstan near
the Chinese border would not stand a chance.
China, Russia and/or Iran, on the other
hand, will operate on interior lines within the
Eurasian mainland. When they move troops and
logistics to meet any threat on the continent,
they will have relatively secure lines of
communication and logistics, using inland
highways, railways and air transport.
Since the US cannot correct the dictates
of geography, it and its main allies Japan and the
UK will have to live and fight with this
tremendous geopolitical disadvantage. Of course
the US can bypass this geographic obstacle if it
attacks China and Russia with its intercontinental
ballistic missiles, sea-launched ballistic
missiles and strategic bombers in a nuclear first
strike, but China and Russia have the means to
retaliate and obliterate the United States and its
allies as well.
There are some among the
leading neo-conservatives in the US who believe
that a nuclear war is winnable; that there is no
such thing as mutually assured destruction (MAD).
Well, that truly mad way of thinking may well
spell the end of planet earth for all of us.
3 Asymmetric attack Superpower
America is particularly vulnerable to asymmetric
attack. A classic example of asymmetric attack is
the September 11, 2001, attack on America.
Nineteen determined attackers, armed with nothing
but box cutters, succeeded in toppling the twin
towers of the World Trade Center in New York City
and causing the death of some 3,000 Americans.
Notice the asymmetry of casualty ratio as well -
the most lopsided casualty ratio ever recorded in
history.
China, Russia, and Iran also
possess asymmetric weapons that are designed to
neutralize and defeat a superpower like America in
a conventional conflict. Supersonic cruise
missiles now in their inventories can defeat and
sink US aircraft carriers. The same is true for
medium- and short-range ballistic missiles with
independently targetable warheads, extra-large
bottom-rising, rocket-propelled sea mines (EM52s),
and supercavitating rocket torpedoes (SHKVAL or
"Squall"). The US Navy has no known defense
against these weapons.
Iraqi insurgents
are conducting a form of asymmetric warfare. They
use improvised explosive devices, car bombs, booby
traps and landmines against the most modern army
the world has ever seen. The US's huge advantage
in weaponry is negated by the fact that its
soldiers cannot see their adversary. They are
fighting against a "phantom" enemy - an invisible
army.
And how can you win against an enemy
you cannot see? This may be one reason why reports
of massacres of Iraqi civilians by US soldiers
have been increasing lately. But turning
sophisticated weapons against civilians will never
win wars for America. It will only heighten the
rage of the victimized population and increase
suicide bombings against US forces.
Connected to asymmetric warfare is
asynchronous warfare, where the weaker side bides
its time to strike back. And it strikes at a time
and place where the adversary is totally
unprepared.
For example, if the US were to
strike Iran’s underground nuclear facilities with
bunker-busting tactical nuclear warheads, Iran
could bide its time until it develops its own
nuclear weapons. It could then use its Kilo class
submarines, equipped with supersonic "moskit"
cruise missiles armed with Iran’s own nuclear
warheads, to hit New York, or Washington, DC as a
payback to the US for using nuclear weapons
against Iran. Or the Iranians could infiltrate
nuclear scientists into the US, where they would
fabricate a "dirty" bomb to be detonated near the
US Congress, in full session while the president
is making his annual state of the nation address.
The possibilities for asymmetric and
asynchronous warfare are limitless. Various
weapons are available to the asymmetric or
asynchronous attacker. If a simple box cutter
produced such devastating results on September 11,
2001, imagine what chemical or biological weapons
dropped from a private aircraft could do to a
crowded city; or trained hackers attacking the US
banking system and other key infrastructure and
basic services; or man-portable surface-to-air
missiles attacking US airlines taking off or
landing in various airports around the globe; or
non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse weapons hitting
New York City or the US Capitol. No amount of even
the best intelligence in the world can totally
guard against and stop a determined asymmetric
attacker.
4 Attack on US's command and
control C4ISR stands for command, control,
communications, computers, intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance. In a war
situation, C4ISR is a prime target because therein
lies the center of gravity of one's adversary.
Neutralizing C4ISR is like cutting off the head of
a chicken. It can run around in circles for a
while, but will soon collapse and die. The same is
true in warfare.
Having the mightiest and
most modern armed forces in the world, America
prides itself with having the most sophisticated
and advanced C4ISR. US military spy satellites can
gather intelligence data and disseminate it on a
real time basis. US surveillance and
reconnaissance satellites are so sophisticated
that their sensors can detect objects on Earth as
small as one-tenth of a meter in size, from
several hundred miles up. Satellite sensors can
also penetrate clouds and bad weather or see in
the night. Some of these spy satellites can also
monitor radio or telephone conversations.
Aside from communications, intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance, satellites are
also used for navigation, most especially in
guiding ballistic missiles, cruise missiles,
aircraft and other smart weapon systems to their
targets. Without satellite guidance, such "smart"
and precision weapons turn into "dumb" bombs and
directionless missiles.
The advances in
C4ISR are rapidly revolutionizing warfare.
Gathering, processing, disseminating, and acting
on intelligence is now made possible on a
real-time or near real-time basis on a global or
regional level. Because of these developments, a
new war principle is emerging in the modern
battlefield: "If the enemy sees you; you are
dead."
The US is far advanced in its C4ISR
compared with, for instance, China. China cannot
hope to catch up and match the American system
anytime soon. So in order for China to survive in
the event of a major conflict with the US, China
has to resort to asymmetric means. This means that
China has to develop effective means of countering
and neutralizing America’s C4ISR. And that is what
China had been working on for more than two
decades now.
The heart of America’s C4ISR
lies in its technologically sophisticated
satellites. But this seeming strength is also an
Achilles' heel. Neutralize or destroy the key
satellites, and America’s major forces, such as
aircraft carrier battle groups, are blinded,
muted, and decapitated. This concept is part of
China’s strategy for "defeating a superior with an
inferior" called shashaojian, or
"assassin’s mace". It is like the mace kept by
ladies in their bags, which they use when attacked
by a mugger or rapist. They squirt the mace into
the eyes of an attacker to temporarily blind him,
giving the intended victim time to escape.
China now has the capability to identify
and track satellites. And for more than two
decades they have been busy developing
anti-satellite weapons. China has been developing
maneuverable nano-satellites that can neutralize
other satellites. They do their work by
maneuvering near a target satellite and
neutralizing the target by electronic jamming,
electro-magnetic pulse generation, clinging to the
target and physically destroying it, bumping the
target out of orbit, or simply exploding to bring
the target satellite down with it. Such nano
satellites can be launched in batches on demand by
road-mobile DF21 or DF31 booster rockets.
Another anti-satellite weapon in the works
is a land-based laser that blinds the sensitive
sensors of satellites or even destroys them
completely. Of course, if worse comes to worst,
China can always use its weapon of last resort,
destroying adversary satellites with a
high-altitude nuclear burst. But this will only be
used if China has not yet fully developed the
other options when major hostilities start. With
the neutralization of its C4ISR, America would be
like "a blind man trying to catch fish with his
bare hands", to quote Mao Zedong. In short,
America would be brought to its knees.
5 Attack on US aircraft carrier battle
groups Aircraft carrier battle groups are
the mainstay of US military supremacy. They serve
as America’s chief instrument for global power
projection and world dominance. In this category,
the US has no equal. At the moment, the US
maintains a total of 12 aircraft carrier battle
groups. In comparison, China has none.
From June to August 2004, the US, for the
first time in its naval history, conducted an
exercise involving the simultaneous convergence of
seven of its 12 aircraft carrier battle groups to
within striking distance of China’s coast. This
was the biggest and most massive show of force the
world has ever seen. It was to remind China that
if it uses force against Taiwan, China will have
to contend with this kind of response.
It
was mentioned earlier that China’s strategy in
defeating the superior by the inferior is
shashaojian or the "assassin’s mace".
"Mace" is not only a blinding spray; it is also a
meaner and deadlier weapon, a spiked war club of
ancient times used to knock out an adversary with
one blow. The spikes of the modern Chinese mace
may well spell the end for aircraft carriers.
The first of these spikes consists of
medium- and short-range ballistic missiles
(modified and improved DF 21s/CSS-5 and DF 15s)
with terminally guided maneuverable re-entry
vehicles with circular error probability of 10
meters. DF 21s/CSS-5s can hit slow-moving targets
at sea up to 2,500km away.
The second
spike is an array of supersonic and highly
accurate cruise missiles, some with range of 300km
or more, that can be delivered by submarines,
aircraft, surface ships or even common trucks
(which are ideal for use in terrain like that of
Iran along the Persian Gulf). These supersonic
cruise missiles travel at more than twice the
speed of sound (mach 2.5), or faster than a rifle
bullet. They can be armed with conventional,
anti-radiation, thermobaric, or electro-magnetic
pulse warheads, or even nuclear warheads if need
be. The Aegis missile defense system and the
Phalanx Close-in Defense weapons of the US Navy
are ineffective against these supersonic cruise
missiles.
A barrage of these cruise
missiles, followed by land-based intermediate- or
short-range ballistic missiles with terminal
guidance systems, could wreak havoc on an aircraft
carrier battle group. Whether there are seven or
15 carrier battle groups, it will not matter, for
China has enough ballistic and cruise missiles to
destroy them all. Unfortunately for the US and
British navies, they do not have the capacity to
counter a barrage of supersonic cruise missile
followed by a second barrage of ballistic
missiles.
The first and second spikes of
the "assassin’s mace" are sufficient to render the
aircraft carrier battle groups obsolete. But there
is a third spike which is equally dreadful. This
is the deadly SHKVAL or "Squall" rocket torpedo
developed by Russia and passed on to China. It is
like an under-water missile. It weighs 6,000lbs
and travels at 200 knots or 230mph, with a range
of 7,500 yards. It is guided by autopilot and with
its high speed, makes evasive maneuvers by
carriers or nuclear submarines highly difficult.
It is truly a submarine and carrier buster; and
again, the US and its allies have no known defense
against such a supercavitating rocket torpedo.
The "assassin’s mace" has still more
spikes. The fourth spike consists of extra-large,
bottom-rising, rocket-propelled sea mines laid by
submarines along the projected paths of advancing
carrier battle groups. These sea mines are
designed specifically for targeting aircraft
carriers. They can be grouped in clusters so that
they will hit the carriers in barrages.
The final spike of the mace is a fleet of
old fighter aircraft (China has thousands of them)
modified as unmanned combat aerial vehicles fitted
with extra fuel tanks and armed with stand-off
anti-ship missiles. They are also packed with high
explosives so that after firing off their
precision-guided anti-ship missiles on the battle
group, they will then finish their mission by
dive-bombing "kamikaze" style into their targets.
If we now combine the mace as a means of
blinding an adversary and the mace as a spiked war
club, one can see the complete picture of how
China will use the "assassin’s mace" to send
America’s aircraft carrier battle groups into the
dustbin of naval history. Although China does not
possess a single operational aircraft carrier, it
has converted the entire China mainland into a
"virtual aircraft carrier" that is unsinkable and
capable of destroying all the aircraft carrier
battle groups that the US and its allies can
muster.
The sad part for the US Navy is
that even if American leaders and naval theorists
realize the horrible truth that aircraft carriers
have been rendered obsolete in modern warfare by
China’s "assassin’s mace", the navy cannot just
change strategy or discard its carriers. Hundreds
of billions of dollars have been poured into those
weapon systems and hundreds of thousands of jobs
would be affected if such behemoths are turned
into scrap. Besides, even if US Navy authorities
wanted to change strategy, the all-powerful and
influential military-industrial complex lobby
would not allow it.
So, if and when a
major conflict between the US and China occurs,
say over the issue of Taiwan, pity those thousands
of American sailors who are unfortunate enough to
be in one of those aircraft carrier battle groups.
They won't stand a chance.
A challenge
to America The 10 "acupuncture points"
mentioned in this article (See also Part 1: Striking the US where it
hurts) are like a 10-stage riddle. It
is an "assassin's mace" or war club of olden times
with 10 deadly spikes. Any one of those spikes can
bring America to its knees. I therefore throw this
riddle to the think tanks in the Pentagon, to the
US Congress, to the president's men, to US
academe, and to every concerned American.
America is in the last two minutes of the
fourth quarter of the "great game", and it is
behind in points. If America can solve the riddle
in time, it wins the game, it can seize global
leadership, and the 21st century will truly be the
American Century.
On the other hand,
failure to solve the riddle will shake America to
its very foundation and cause this great nation to
collapse - just like that vivid image of the
collapsing Twin Towers familiar to each and every
American. America loses, and it will be down and
out for the rest of this century.
Wake up,
America!
Victor N Corpus is a
retired bridadier general of the Armed Forces of
the Philippines (AFP); former chief of the
Intelligence Service, AFP; and holds a master's
degree in public administration from the Kennedy
School of Government, Harvard University.
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