SHANGHAI - If Pyongyang ignores tough
warnings by China and other countries and goes
ahead with a second nuclear test, Beijing could
likely revoke a military-ally-like treaty with
North Korea to end the "blood and flesh"
friendship with its neighboring country, Chinese
analysts say.
There are also signs that
Beijing has escalated its pressure on Pyongyang
ahead of its reported second nuclear test, as
China has closed three customs offices in
northeastern China that
handle trade with North
Korea.
In July, China and North Korea
celebrated the 45th anniversary of
the "China-DPRK Friendship
and Mutual Collaboration Treaty", which contains a
clause stipulating that each side will help the
other defend against any foreign invasion. That
is, virtually tieing the two countries as military
allies.
But the commitment, especially
from the North Korea side, has been highly
unreliable. Pyongyang stood by idle when China and
the former Soviet Union engaged in military
conflicts in the 1960s.
And now,
particularly in light of North Korea conducting
its nuclear test, the treaty could become a
strategic liability for China should Pyongyang's
moves result in foreign forces becoming involved
on the peninsula. Although the possibility is slim
at this stage, but increasing in the face of North
Korea's defiance, Beijing certainly does not want
to help North Korea in such an eventuality.
Pyongyang's nuclear test caught Beijing by
surprise, prompting a fierce debate among
policymakers about what to do with the "friend",
sources say. One of the options being considered
is for Beijing to use the treaty as leverage to
press Pyongyang to fall into line and return to
the six-party talks on its nuclear program, as all
the other countries involved - China, Russia, the
US, Japan and South Korea - are demanding.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Li
Zhaoxing on Friday. Both sides agreed to make
efforts to bring North Korea back to the
six-nation talks, according to Xinhua News Agency.
Also on Friday, Chinese State Councilor and former
foreign minister, Tang Jiaxuan, told Rice that his
trip to North Korea this week "had not been in
vain".
Tang was sent to deliver a personal
message from President Hu Jintao to Kim Jong-il.
It is unclear whether Tang brought up the treaty
issue when he met Kim. But on Thursday, Foreign
Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao, when asked about
Tang's Pyongyang visit, said the six-party
negotiations remained a valid mechanism in dealing
with North Korea's nuclear issue.
All the
same, China has escalated pressure on North Korea.
Beijing-based Global Times, a sister publication
of the Chinese Communist Party's flagship
newspaper, the People's Daily, reported that China
had closed three customs offices in northeastern
China that handle trade with North Korea.
It said the closures involved border
offices in Donggang and Shanghekou, both in
Liaoning province, and one in the city of Tumen,
in Jilin province. Before the action was taken,
Beijing formally operated four customs points with
North Korea. Now only the customs point of
Dandong, facing the North Korean border city of
Shinuiju across the Yalu River, is open to handle
bilateral trade. Chinese banks are also
reported to have stopped financial transfers to
North Korea under government orders.
Rice's daunting task in her Beijing visit
will be to persuade the "teeth" to the "lips" to
remain intact. The China-North Korea relationship
has often been likened to that of the "teeth and
lips", following a Chinese idiom that says that
when the lips are gone, the teeth feel frigid.
But Rice could also get some advice from
Beijing on the dynamics in play in Kim's regime:
enforcing tough sanctions and even tightening the
squeeze is not the only option.
North
Korea watchers say that the Kim regime is entering
a delicate period of selecting a successor to Dear
Leader Kim. Too much outside pressure would give
leverage to hardliners, and a wait-and-see
approach could therefore be a wiser option.
One school of thought among China's
policymakers argues that the Kim regime has been
isolated for so long that it cannot be "further"
isolated, so, beyond helping hardliners, any
measures will be a waste of time.
Therefore, until such time as a second
nuclear test, Beijing is expected to seek a
balance. On the one hand, it thinks that Pyongyang
needs to be taught a lesson, as China's number two
leader, Wu Bangguo, said this week - that
Pyongyang should be made to pay a "high price".
One the other hand, out of its geopolitical and
strategic concerns, China will make all effort to
avoid a sudden collapse of the North Korea regime.
It is also important to note that North
Korea's test and Iran's nuclear program are
linked. That is, China does not want to show that
it is too harsh on North Korea, while being
conciliatory to Iran. Beijing fears that the
collapse of North Korea would result in millions
of refugees flooding into China. China has begun
to build a fence along its border with North
Korea, but it is highly doubtful if People's
Liberation Army soldiers would open fire on
refugees. Analysts say this is one reason Beijing
has given aid to Pyongyang in recent years.
Since the collapse of the former Soviet
Union in the early 1990s, China has been North
Korea's biggest trade partner and arguably its
closest ally. Trade between the two countries has
skyrocketed in recent years. From 2000 to 2005,
trade jumped from US$488 million to $1.58 billion,
at an annual growth rate of 26.5%.
This
year will see a leap forward as in the first seven
months trade had already reached $900 million. In
2005, China's investment in North Korea totaled
$127.22 million, in the first half of 2006,
investment soared to $86.43 million.
China's investment in North Korea involves
food, electronics, chemicals, drugs and medicine,
light industry, garments, mining and
transportation. Fuel and food account for
two-thirds of China's exports to North Korea. This
raises the question, how does North Korea cover
its $500 million trade deficit with China?
Analysts tend to believe this is the amount of aid
Beijing gives to Pyongyang.
Border trade
plays an important role. Liaoning and Jilin
provinces in northeast China have been busy
expanding and facilitating trade with North Korea.
Hunchun, a small town in Jilin, bordering North
Korea and Russia, plans to launch a project to
build a trilateral free-trade zone.
Scott Zhou is a freelance writer
based in Shanghai.
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