With US President George W Bush in essence rendered to lame-duck status and
Republican Party stalwarts such as Donald Rumsfeld missing in action, China has
a unique opportunity to accelerate its path toward becoming the world's second
superpower.
To achieve this objective, it has to placate ruffled feathers in the US
government, implying that it will accept fresh concessions that would impose
significant economic cost. In addition, China will
have to engage the other three horsemen of the apocalypse.
The four horsemen
In a previous article that followed North Korea's nuclear tests, [1] I detailed
the likely roles of the United States (war), North Korea (famine), Pakistan and
Iran (pestilence and death) in an apocalyptic scenario. The key rationale
underpinning that view was the likely continuation of a warlike mentality
pervading the US, which pushes countries such as North Korea and Iran to the
brink.
Indeed, it is not difficult to imagine that either North Korea or Iran (or
both) could gamble desperately on a lack of proportionate response from the US
in choosing to attack that country. While that scenario is unlikely in any
normal society, neither country currently has a government that actually
listens to its people; indeed, North Korea systematically starves its own
people in order to devote all its resources to the maintenance of the Kim
dynasty.
The key limitation for any US counter-strike would be the damage posed to
friendly countries in the vicinity of the intended targets, viz Japan and South
Korea in the case of North Korea, and Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and
Israel in the case of Iran. In this context, I wrote the following:
A
country that cannot stomach civilian losses and is limited from engaging in
massive retribution will essentially have to rethink its strategic paradigm. In
a matter of a few years, America will go back to defending itself domestically
from hostile forces, rather than projecting its power globally. It is the end
of the American century.
An expectation of likely hostilities,
combined with a weak government, will force the US to accelerate its strategic
decline. The vacuum this leaves in the world would be ideally filled by a
number of countries ranging from the Eurozone, Russia and by a long stretch
even India, but the most likely successor would be China.
The first task for China is to understand the likely spoiler role that will be
played by a resurgent Democratic Party in the United States. The biggest worry
by far is that China will become the favorite whipping boy of the US government
and media in the next two years as the agenda for the next elections is laid
out by both parties. I believe that to avoid a significant escalation in US
opposition, China will allow its currency to appreciate by up to 10% every year
starting early next year. I have noted in previous articles [2] that this would
be disastrous for the country's financial sector in the absence of structural
reforms. [3]
To defray this significant financial cost, China will have to show its
strategic gains to its people, which it will do by engaging the other three
horsemen, namely North Korea, Pakistan and Iran.
Handling Kim Jong-il
China 's biggest strategic embarrassment of late has been North Korean leader
Kim Jong-il, whose decision to test a nuclear weapon was most likely done
without consulting Beijing. In the aftermath, China deftly moved itself to the
mainstream, by being the first major power to call for sanctions against North
Korea. The tough talking also worked with North Korea, with Beijing confirming
that Kim's crowd would not contemplate a second nuclear test.
While the overall situation has evolved to China's benefit, the same cannot be
said for how the country will view Kim Jong-il in future. Destabilizing the
equilibrium are also the changed tactics of Japan and South Korea, whose
increased dependence on Beijing is a strategic positive. Thus it can be argued
that it is not in China's interest to stabilize North Korea over the
next three to five years, allowing, for example, a peaceful reunion with South
Korea. Thus Beijing will play the Kim Jong-il card for a while longer,
providing enough economic assistance to keep him in power, while paying lip
service to the concerns voiced by the rest of the world.
Terrible twins
Compared with the task of keeping North Korea on a tight leash, handling
Pakistan and Iran will be relatively simple for Beijing. Here, the
self-preservation instincts of the leadership in the two countries, as against
strategic considerations, play a big part in aiding Beijing.
Pakistan's military leaders can survive indefinitely as long as their populace
sees India as the sole external threat. Given that a rapprochement between
Pakistan and India is strategically impossible, a perpetuation of Pakistan's
regime under Chinese tutelage is a given. As I mentioned above, the withdrawal
of the US from the Asian arena makes it all the more automatic.
Iran is a tougher nut to crack, particularly given the interest shown by
Russia, and the lack of geographical proximity that China enjoys with both
North Korea and Pakistan. Even so, the two countries have been joining hands
recently, as an article in Asia Times Online this week points out. [4] More
than the obvious areas of cooperation such as in natural resources and
technology, Iran also needs to have China on its side to avoid any
over-dependence on Russia, which has in the past proved to be a fickle partner.
An interesting sidelight of the relatively close relations enjoyed by China
with Pakistan and Iran is the fascination it evokes in certain circles,
including The Edge forum
and the Letters
page of Asia Times Online. One correspondent pointed out recently that the
Islamic countries remained good friends of China despite its poor treatment of
Muslim ethnic minorities. It is my duty perhaps to point out that the correct
conjunction in this case is not "despite" but rather "because". Persian, Arab
and Turkish invaders failed to crack imperial China in any way similar to how
they overran India (at least the former two). The memory of defeats has built
into the Muslim psyche a grudging respect for China, much as their memories of
selective victories against the West (such as in Afghanistan) embolden them.
It has also been a standard observation that Beijing cultivates its diplomatic
channels more arduously than any other country; corrupt governments such as
those in Pakistan and Iran are relatively easy targets in front of this
machine.
Other contenders
Putatively, other contenders to fill the strategic vacuum would include the
Eurozone, Russia and India. The first can be dismissed, if not entirely for
demographic reasons, for simple political ones. The United Kingdom, Germany and
France are not likely to see eye to eye on global issues any more than Saudi
Arabia and Iraq are, therefore any attempts to turn an economically lagging
continent into a global superpower would likely produce ridicule. Just think of
all the French jokes you know, and then translate them into all the important
languages in the world.
Russia certainly has the firepower to regain its status as a superpower, but is
demographically destined for extinction sooner than President Vladimir Putin
imagines. Lacking a will to fight is one thing, but lacking one to live
altogether is a completely different matter. That said, Russia will continue to
play a spoiler role for China in years to come. If the Eurozone gains a
sufficient foothold in Russia, in the post-Putin era, it is entirely possible
that the combined entity would pose a significant threat to both the US and
China. Mercifully for the latter, it will be a relatively short reign.
As for India, the potential to perform is only exceeded by the country's record
of disappointments. The current political situation is hardly conducive to
economic growth, let alone any strategic paradigm shifts in external focus that
would necessarily entail strong leadership and a clear understanding of
objectives. It has been said that the entire Congress party leadership cannot
muster a single backbone, let alone any strategic vision. As with Russia, India
can certainly play a spoiler role to China, although its prickly history and
frequent government changes render the job of potential suitors more difficult
than perhaps the trouble is worth.
