The geometry of Sino-Indian
ties By Jing-dong Yuan
Chinese President Hu Jintao's current
visit to India is apparently aimed at warming his
country's relations with New Delhi. However, there
are still thorny obstacles to overcome for the
betterment of political ties. In addition to
border disputes and historical distrust, the two
countries' bilateral ties are conditioned by the
China-India-Pakistan and China-India-US triangular
relationships.
Hu arrived in India on
Monday to begin a three-day visit that will close
a highly taunted "Year of China-India Friendship".
But as
the world is becoming
increasingly engrossed by the rise of "Chindia"
marked by Asia's two rising powers' phenomenal
economic growth and political clout, how Beijing
and New Delhi manage their bilateral relationship
will be critical for regional and global peace and
prosperity in the coming years.
Hu's is
the first such high-level visit in a decade, a
decade that has experienced rapid expansion of
ties in political, economic and security spheres,
with only a short hiatus of 1998-99 when
Sino-Indian relations were estranged in the wake
of Indian nuclear tests and New Delhi's using the
China threat as the justification for them.
On Tuesday, India and China agreed to a
10-point plan to solidify ties, saying there was
enough room to grow together while remaining
sensitive to each other's concerns. The move came
after a meeting between Hu and Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh. One of the points is that the
countries double their trade to $40 billion by
2010.
The bilateral relationship has been
marked by regular high-level visits, growing
cooperation on a range of international and
regional issues, and the establishment of a
strategic and cooperative partnership for peace
and stability. Perhaps most important was the
decision in 2003 to designate special
representatives in both countries to develop a
political framework within which to seek eventual
resolution of the boundary issue. During Chinese
Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to India last year, the
two sides also signed an agreement of guiding
principles aimed at settling the their boundary
disputes.
The most noticeable progress,
though, has been registered in growing two-way
trade. From a mere US$117 million in 1987,
bilateral trade has grown to $20 billion this
year, with the two countries setting a target of
$50 billion for 2010. Cooperation has also
expanded to include energy, agriculture, education
and technology. In July, the countries reopened
the historical Nathu La Pass that had been close
since the 1962 war to promote border trade
further. Beijing and New Delhi reportedly are also
exploring the possibility of negotiating a
free-trade pact.
The countries have also
made progress in the area of defense cooperation.
Building on the 1993 and 1996 agreements on
maintaining peace and tranquility and developing
confidence-building measures in the military
field, Beijing and New Delhi have in recent years
expanded ties to include port calls, joint
search-and-rescue exercises and defense exchanges.
Last May, the two countries signed a memorandum of
understanding on defense cooperation, an important
sign of an improved bilateral relationship.
Hu's visit will be the crowning event to
mark a decade of steady improvement in bilateral
relations and serve as an impetus for further
strengthening ties between Asia's two emerging
powers. However, the substance and consolidation
of the improving bilateral relationship will have
to overcome what I term the four Ts - threat
perceptions; territorial disputes; and the two
triangulars, ie, China-India-US and
China-India-Pakistan.
Despite progress in
bilateral relations over the past few years,
mutual suspicions remain. Partly this is due to
the dynamics of security dilemma and structural
conflicts between the two Asian giants. India has
watched China's phenomenal growth in economic and
military areas with both envy and alarm. The very
fact that China continues to lead India on many
indicators of power poses a greater threat than
its military defeat 40 years ago. Likewise,
China is paying close attention to India's growing
military power and its nuclear and missile
developments. Beijing is wary of New Delhi's
eastward strategy of developing greater economic
and military ties with Japan and the countries of
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Unresolved territorial disputes continue
to be a key obstacle to full normalization of
bilateral relations. While both sides agree to a
package settlement format through negotiation to
arrive at a mutually acceptable resolution,
progress remains slow on the specifics after eight
rounds of talks between the two special
representatives.
The recent remark by the
Chinese ambassador to India asserting Beijing's
claims to the entire Arunachal Pradesh state has
sent what the Indian media describe as ripples of
unease, and only highlights the intractable nature
of the border disputes. Clearly, final resolution
of the issue requires not only political decisions
(and courage) at the highest level in both
capitals but also the political skills to sell
such a resolution to their respective domestic
constituencies.
A China-India-US strategic
triangle has emerged in that policymakers are
increasingly aware of and attentive to policies
made in the other two capitals and how these may
affect their own security interests. Within this
complex structure, China is watching closely the
significance and implications of a warming
US-India relationship marked by growing defense
ties and the nuclear deal. The US administration's
efforts to seek a closer relationship with India
are seen by Beijing as using India as a
counterweight against China's rise.
A
stable Sino-Indian relationship requires the
effective management of the delicate
China-India-Pakistan triangle. Beijing has made
greater efforts to address New Delhi's legitimate
concerns over Chinese defense ties with Pakistan.
While China's neutrality during the 1999 Kargil
crisis demonstrates a more balanced Chinese-South
Asia policy, that gesture has yet to translate
into goodwill and confidence on India's part that
the Sino-Pakistani relationship is not targeted at
India. Indian security analysts have called
Chinese policy an effort to engage India to
contain it, citing, for instance, the Chinese role
in helping Pakistan construct the Gwadar Port.
Hu's visit to India could inject optimism
and high expectations for Sino-Indian relations,
but the challenges ahead remain daunting. Leaders
in Beijing and New Delhi are content with the
current status of bilateral relations because they
are stable and provide possibilities for future
developments. But remaining in passivity can only
move bilateral relations so far. Beijing and New
Delhi should work harder to tackle the challenges
mentioned above and move the bilateral
relationship to a higher plateau.
Jing-dong Yuan is research
director of the East Asia non-proliferation
program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies
and associate professor of international policy
studies at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies in California. He is the co-author ofChina and India: Cooperation or Conflict,
2003.
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