Beijing profits from Berlin
ties
By Federico Bordonaro
During his meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in May, Chinese
President Hu Jintao said that China regarded its ties with Germany as
"extremely important" and that Beijing was willing to make concerted efforts
with Berlin to "foster an all-round China-EU partnership".
Berlin is not only Beijing's main European trading partner, but it has also
become China's main political partner in Western Europe. As Germany will take
the helm of the EU's rotating
presidency on January 1, China may have a unique opportunity next year to
decisively enhance its economic and strategic relations with Europe.
China's approach to Europe is marked by pragmatism. Since the EU tends to
divide on the most important issues, from the Iraqi war to Iran's nuclear
crisis, from Turkey's accession to the arms embargo on Beijing, China has
chosen to deepen its ties with Germany - and for three good reasons.
First of all, Germany remains Europe's strongest economic player and the EU's
decisive geopolitical pivot. Second, Berlin's cooperation with Beijing
constantly expanded between 1972 (when the two countries established diplomatic
relations) and 2006. And third, Germany will hold the EU presidency in the
first half of 2007.
For Germany, China represents not only a huge market but also a key partner at
the UN, where Germany seeks a seat as permanent member in an enlarged Security
Council.
Hu's desire to make the Sino-German relationship the core of renewed
Sino-European cooperation clearly indicated China's goals and methodology. In
fact, the Sino-German strategic and cooperative partnership is being developed
within the overall framework of China-EU relations. While Sino-European
relations were generally good during 2006, some elements of disturbance
persist.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has praised Berlin's refusal to sell arms to Taiwan.
China also appreciates Germany's firm stance on Tibet. Even Joschka Fischer,
the former foreign minister, reaffirmed Berlin's "One-China policy" in 2003
during his meeting with the Dalai Lama, saying that Tibet was part of the
People's Republic, notwithstanding the fact that Tibet's push for independence
has gained much sympathy in Western Europe.
Europe disappointed Beijing's expectations regarding the proposed lifting of
the arms embargo against China this year. While France believes that the ban is
obsolete, many EU players are sensitive to US pressures and wish to maintain
it, arguing that China may have hegemonic ambitions in East and Southeast Asia
and should thus be contained.
Germany's stance on the arms embargo has traditionally been extremely cautious.
Berlin remains Washington's pivotal ally in Europe, and the new chancellor,
Merkel, firmly believes that Germany cannot afford a deterioration of its
political, diplomatic and strategic ties with the US.
On the other hand, Berlin is France's main strategic partner in Europe and the
co-owner of Europe's defense giant EADS (European Aeronautic Defense and
Space).
However, China doesn't look particularly worried about the failure to lift the
ban, in part because cooperation in high-tech with Europe and technology
transfer continues beyond strictly military projects.
For instance, China's partnership in the satellite-navigation system Galileo,
according to some military analysts, may enable Beijing to dramatically enhance
its defense technology and capabilities even though Galileo remains a civilian
project.
Another controversial issue in Sino-European relations in the past couple of
years was undoubtedly textiles. While the textile and fashion industry in some
EU countries - as in in Italy - has been lobbying for protectionist measures
against Chinese competition and has called for stricter rules on intellectual
property, Germany has taken a more moderate stance, based on a higher level of
confidence in the gradual improvement of Sino-European cooperation on the
issue.
In September 2005, German representatives of the textile and fashion industry
welcomed the agreement which allowed the China-made textile products blocked in
EU ports to be freed. All things considered, Germany has consistently proved to
be China's most reliable EU partner throughout 2006.
Bilateral projects
In her May trip the chancellor stressed Germany's desire to continue the
"One-China" policy and to further develop the China-Germany strategic and
cooperative partnership. Germany and China, she added, "share broad common
interests and could establish cooperation in many fields".
Strong political and diplomatic ties design the framework for economic and
strategic cooperation and the context for comprehensive Euro-Chinese agreements
on a number of issues. The enhancement of China-Germany ties, Wen said during
the summit, "is an established policy of the Chinese government and serves the
common interests of the two countries".
Here are some important projects are already underway:
Infrastructure. Germany will cooperate in building China's
high-speed rail system. Apart from traditional railways, China may also buy
more German magnetic-levitation technology for high-speed trains in the future.
Telecommunications. Deeper business ties in the field will allow
Germany's flourishing telecoms industry to expand in one of the world's most
promising markets. Germany's telecommunication giant Siemens signed a deal with
China's Huawei for expanding third-generation tech solutions.
Technology and standardization. A cooperation agreement was
signed by the director of the German Institute for Standardization, Torsten
Bahke, and Liu Pingjun, administrator of the Standardization Administration of
the People's Republic of China in Berlin. Both parties defined the agreement as
"a strategic partnership that benefits both economies".
Implications for policy and business
The legacy of 2006 is promising for further bilateral cooperation between
Berlin and Beijing. Energy security, energy efficiency and common environmental
policies were proposed by Merkel as new vital fields for cooperation during the
Beijing summit in May.
Both countries enjoy good relations with Russia, the Eurasian energy
superpower, and share the common interest of securing their access to
hydrocarbons while enhancing research and development in renewable energies.
According to energy analysts, China has already become the world's main
investor in renewables, while Germany is one of Europe's champions in the
field. If Merkel's wishes are followed by concrete action, look for renewable
energy to become one of the most interesting sectors for Sino-German
cooperation and investments.
In 2007, Germany will continue to uphold its "One-China" policy and will seek
out China's help to strengthen its demand for a seat in the UN Security
Council.
In Central Asia, both countries will likely court Kazakhstan to improve
Astana's capability to convey its oil resources toward East and West
independently of Russia. Possibly, they will cooperate in joint energy projects
in the region within the EU-China relations framework.
Law enforcement and the struggle against terrorism will be yet another field of
cooperation between the two, and the elaboration of common policies in the
field will likely receive strong support from the EU.
Because of Germany's commitment to the "One-China" policy and because of
Beijing's cautious stance on the weapon embargo issue, the real big challenges
to a smooth and strong development of the Sino-German relations into a
comprehensive EU-China strategic partnership will come from Iran and North
Korea.
China and its European partners have different geostrategic perspectives on the
two nuclear issues, and a different relationship with Washington. Especially in
the unfortunate event of a dramatic worsening of the Iran-US crisis, it is
unlikely that Germany and China will take a common stance on sanctions - let
alone military intervention - against Tehran.
This notwithstanding, it is even more unlikely that such a crisis could
significantly damage the growing economic ties between Berlin and Beijing. All
indicators suggest that China will enjoy Germany's EU presidency.
Federico Bordonaro is senior analyst with the Power and Interest News
Report (www.pinr.com).
