Page 2 of 2 China puts the focus on the
navy By Adam Wolfe
importers share. To this end, China can be
expected to continue pursuing measures to dissuade
US fears of a coming arms race, while still
building a force capable of deterring the United
States from interfering in an attack on Taiwan.
Washington can be expected to react in turn,
cooperating on some aspects of mutual interest,
while continuing to cite China's military buildup
as a reason to upgrade its own systems.
Similarly, China would like to assuage the
fears that its military modernization might raise
in India and Japan. After Japanese
Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe's election last year, China
quickly reversed its position and accepted a state
visit from the new premier. Beijing also used
high-level meetings with New Delhi to highlight
the burgeoning economic ties between their
countries and to play down their continuing border
dispute.
However, while Beijing is
striving to show Washington that it is a
"responsible stakeholder", and that its neighbors
have nothing to fear from China's rise, it
continues to support governments that the US
considers "rogue regimes", and its policy of
isolating Taiwan diplomatically goes on unabated.
Therefore, while it participated in more United
Nations peacekeeping missions in 2006, it also
moved closer to Iran and continued to support
Sudan.
As long as this dual-track policy
persists, Washington, and China's regional rivals,
will continue to watch Beijing's military
modernization with caution. In fact, two days
after the white paper was released, Japan
announced that it had staged a joint navy exercise
with the US in the East China Sea the previous
month based on the scenario that China had invaded
the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.
China's recent defense white paper had a
number of purposes. It sought to dissuade Taiwan
from breaking its "one China" commitments, while
also calming regional fears of a greater military
presence in the neighborhood. It also aimed to
convince Washington that it was not pursuing an
arms race, while at the same time demonstrating
that it was developing the capabilities to deter
US intervention in the Taiwan Strait. None of this
information should come as a surprise, as part of
China's policy on all of these fronts is to pursue
a more transparent military, although many suspect
that there is much more undeclared spending than
accounted for in the report.
While there
is little new in China's white paper, the emphasis
given to the navy, as well as Hu's speech before
its release, is worth noting. China believes that
it will need to develop a blue-water navy to
protect its economic rise. This will allow it to
protect sea lines of communication for the vast
natural resources that it requires to ensure that
its economy continues to grow at its current
level. In some ways, this goal should bring
Washington and Beijing closer. Nevertheless, other
factors will continue to put pressure on their
relationship.
The main obstacle is Taiwan,
but neither party seems inclined to alter the
status quo. Also, China's rise in Asia will
challenge Washington's hegemony there. As such, it
can be expected that the competing goals will
continue to be highlighted in Beijing and
Washington, while their militaries also inch
toward closer relations by focusing on mutual
security concerns.
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