Page 2 of 2 Rumors of a split in China's
elite By David Fullbrook
Shanghai clique who wanted to express
their anger over Chen's purge, or sow discord
between Hu and Zeng, or both.
That in
hindsight appears to be a legacy of Deng Xiaoping
to balance competing forces within the party,
because Hu's power base lies in the Communist
Youth League, a sort of domestic development
agency. The dour Hu has been more concerned with
deprived inland provinces, making a show of
reaching out to hard-up, disaster-stricken, or
sickly peasants, largely ignored by Jiang, a
big-city guy with a passion for karaoke.
Many observers think Hu has been battling
to assert his power
over
the Shanghai clique. This seemingly culminated
last September when Chen Liangyu was purged as
Shanghai party boss on corruption charges.
Yet it is probably not an out-and-out
battle between the two groups. Cheng Li, a
sinologist at Hamilton College, New York, thinks
their emergence marks the beginning of the CCP
dividing into two factions, both competing for the
upper hand but also cooperating to ensure the
unity to maintain stability and the party's grip
on power.
Having been on the defensive
since Jiang retired and suffering the ignominious
loss of Chen, the Shanghai clique is doubtless
lobbying hard for a decent quota of posts in the
new Politburo Hu will unveil at the first plenum
of the 17th Central Committee this year.
Its prospects would appear good. Many able
candidates for Politburo posts are associated with
the Shanghai clique, and Vice President Zeng will
help Hu choose the new members. In any case, if
Li's interpretation holds, Hu needs the Shanghai
clique's cooperation to execute his policies
effectively.
Uncertainty hangs over their prospects,
though, because Politburo members have also
been following the two-term norm. Hu may then want
to fill many of the vacancies with people aligned
with the Youth League's priorities because they
will serve their second term under Hu's successor,
helping to sustain his legacy.
Those due
to retire this autumn served their first term
under Jiang and are mostly seen as associates of
the Shanghai clique. In other words, the leader is
something of a lame duck during his first
administration, with more latitude to change
emphasis rather than course, which is what Hu has
done.
Building support is probably
becoming more difficult because of the CCP's rapid
growth, adding about 5 million members during the
past few years, taking membership beyond 70
million.
Many new members are recruited among
the ranks of entrepreneurs, investors and landowners,
the sort of people the party once aimed
to eliminate. The interests of older members can
hardly be static given the pace of change in society
and the economy, and the increasing expression
of power through money rather than political
ideology.
If the CCP is beginning to factionalize,
then given its growth and changing character
there could well be many smaller interest
groups or soft factions, a mix of ambitious
rising stars and opportunists seeking to
profit one way or another.
However, the
CCP is at pains to present a united front. It is
well aware of the dangers of factionalism, but
there may be little the party overlords can do to
stop it. They have failed spectacularly to purge
the cancer of corruption, now endemic within the
party.
With so much at stake this autumn
and new forces and interests gaining weight, the
politicking and horse-trading will be particularly
acute in the months ahead. While the big upsets,
arguments and disputes that make up political
theater in open societies will remain hidden, the
audience will almost certainly be enjoying a rich
and spicy stream of rumors this year.
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