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2 Satellite killer really aimed at
Taiwan By Wu Zhong, China
Editor
HONG KONG - Apart from
demonstrating its capability of engaging in a
potential "Star Wars", China's launching of a
ground-based ballistic missile to destroy one of
its own weather satellites two weeks ago was also
intended to deter Taiwan from moving toward
independence.
US intelligence agencies
have said China conducted a successful launch of a
"killer" weapon on January 11, destroying one of
its own satellites orbiting more than 800
kilometers above the Earth with a "kinetic kill
vehicle" launched from a ballistic missile. China
has
so far declined to confirm or deny the report.
This has surprised the international
community as it is the first time that a
ground-based missile has been launched
successfully to destroy an orbiting satellite. In
the past the US used an air-launched missile to
destroy a satellite and the former Soviet Union
downed a satellite from Earth orbit. But earlier
attempts to shoot down a satellite from
ground-based missiles had failed.
It may
not be a mere coincidence that China tested the
anti-satellite weapon just two weeks after its
government published a white paper on national
defense, saying that China's national security
faces "challenges that cannot be ignored".
The biggest challenge to China's national
security and territorial integrity would be a
formal declaration of independence in Taiwan,
especially if backed by the United States.
"The Taiwan authority has adopted a
radical approach toward Taiwan independence ...
posing a serious threat to China's sovereignty and
territorial integrity," the white paper says. "The
United States has repeatedly reiterated it would
uphold the 'one China' policy, opposing Taiwan
independence. But the US continues to sell
advanced military equipment and to strengthen its
military liaison and exchange with Taiwan."
According to China's Anti-Secession Law,
passed in March 2005, China will use military
force against Taiwan if the island formally
declares independence. The US has pledged to help
militarily defend the island from an attack from
the mainland. And Beijing is also concerned that
the US may encourage Japan to assist in any
military action over Taiwan.
The white
paper also warns of the danger of a US-led
strategic realignment in Asia. "The United States
and Japan are strengthening their military
alliance in pursuit of operational integration.
Japan seeks to revise its constitution and
exercise collective self-defense. Its military
posture is becoming more external-oriented. The
DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] has
launched missile tests and conducted a nuclear
test. Thus the situation on the Korean Peninsula
and in Northeast Asia has become more complex and
challenging."
Reading the white paper, one
can easily draw a conclusion that a major aim of
China's military buildup is to prepare for war
against Taiwan, with possible US intervention
taken into consideration.
From this point
of view, it is no surprise to see China's test of
an anti-satellite weapon. According to China's
strategists, the country needs its own "killer"
weapons or tactics to win in an asymmetrical war.
Some analysts in Beijing say that more
surprises of this kind can be expected in the near
future as the hope for a peaceful reunification
with Taiwan becomes increasingly slim given the
current Taiwanese government's pro-independence
stance.
"While Beijing wants to maintain
the status quo on the [Taiwan] Strait, Taiwan
leaders keep taking provocative moves in recent
years to challenge the 'one China' principle," one
analyst said. "[Taiwanese President] Chen
Shui-bian now openly talks about China and Taiwan
being two 'independent countries'. Under such
circumstances, 'peaceful reunification' seems
one-sided wishful thinking."
Before
retiring as chairman of the Central Military
Commission two years ago, former Chinese president
Jiang Zemin appeared to have given up hope for a
peaceful solution of the Taiwan issue, reportedly
saying, "A cross-strait war is inevitable." And
upon his retirement, he reportedly gave a farewell
gift to each CMC member - a statue of Zheng
Chenggong (aka Koxinga), a Ming Dynasty general
who led Chinese troops to take Taiwan back from
the Dutch in 1662.
Over the years,
Beijing's leaders have learned the hard way that
Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party wins
votes by talking up independence and thus
provoking the mainland into retaliating in a way
that hands the DPP a weapon, harping on the "China
threat". Missile tests in the strait also helped
Kuomintang president Lee Teng-hui win re-election
in 1996.
Beijing has learned a lesson and
now acts with more sophistication to avoid direct
confrontation, particularly with the US. In this
sense, the launching of a missile to destroy a
satellite could serve the purpose of deterring
Taiwan without direct provocation.
A
People's Liberation Army source in Beijing said
this month's missile test is a logical development
of China's military
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