Missile test gives new life to
'China threat' By Antoaneta
Bezlova
BEIJING - China's furtive attitude
regarding its growing military capability has
rekindled an on-off international debate about
whether its military is a paper tiger or a real
power to reckon with in Asia and beyond.
Despite a chorus of concern from Tokyo to
Canberra and Washington over China's
satellite-killing missile test reported by US
intelligence agencies this month - the first such
experiment in more than 20 years - Beijing has
declined to explain the motives
behind the test.
The
test is significant because it shows that China
has now mastered key technology to track and
destroy spy satellites operated by other nations.
Beijing could use this "space control" as leverage
to help project its growing power in the region
and beyond.
The shooting down of an old
weather satellite with a ground-based ballistic
missile took place on January 12, according to US
reports, scattering debris that could potentially
damage other satellites as it remains circling in
orbit for years.
Because of its potential
to ignite an arms race in space, the incident has
sparked a frenzy in the international media.
China's official press, though, carried belated
reports of it, ignoring the controversy.
China's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday
that Beijing had confirmed its recent missile test
to some countries, including the US and Japan, but
that it is against an arms race in space.
US State Department spokesman Sean
McCormack said the Chinese had taken only "baby
steps" thus far toward more openness. He said the
US seeks "greater understanding of exactly what
their intent was" in testing the satellite
destroyer.
"All of this is designed,
really, to avoid any sort of misunderstandings,
not only with the United States, but other
countries around the world," McCormack said.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu
Jianchao told reporters recently: "What I can say
is that as a matter of principle, China opposes
the weaponization of space, and also opposes any
form of arms race."
Security experts
believe China's military is at least two decades
behind those of the US and other Western powers in
terms of technology and ability to coordinate
joint operations of its forces. Beijing has made
clear its intentions of transforming the People's
Liberation Army (PLA) into a modern military force
and has revved up arms purchases to narrow the
gap.
The size of the force has fallen
dramatically, from some 4 million soldiers in the
late 1970s to 2.3 million at the end of 2005.
Defense spending in 2006 totaled US$36.3 billion,
up 14.7% from the year before, meaning it grew
faster than China's booming economy.
While
few dispute the need for China to step up military
expenditure so that its military power reflects
the country's overall growth, what puzzles defense
analysts is Beijing's lack of transparency
surrounding this military rise. US defense
policymakers contend that secrecy shrouds
everything about the PLA - from its annual budget
to its long-term intentions.
The Pentagon
annual report last year asserted that China's
defense spending is two to three times official
Chinese government estimates of $36 billion. It
called on China to share more information about
the state of its army modernization. "Absent
greater transparency, international reactions to
China's military growth will understandably hedge
against these unknowns," the report said.
Beijing dismisses such criticism, saying
the US feels intimidated by China's economic and
military rise and wants to keep it in check. In a
special defense paper published last month,
Beijing argued that "hegemonism and power
politics" were behind the resurrection of "China
threat" worries in recent years.
"A small
number of countries have stirred up a racket about
a 'China threat' and intensified their preventive
strategy against China" in an effort to "hold its
progress in check", the paper said.
Some
defense analysts suggest the sole purpose of the
Pentagon's annual reports on China's military is
to justify the sale of sophisticated weaponry to
Taiwan.
"Because Taipei has stalled on the
US arms-purchase bill now for a long time, the
Pentagon feels annoyed and in need to warn that
the balance of power has shifted in favor of
mainland China," said Jin Yinan, an expert with
the China Defense University.
China claims
the island as part of its territory despite the
fact that Taiwan has been in essence independent
for nearly 60 years. Opposing the pro-independence
forces in Taiwan remains the key aim of the PLA.
The mainland's efforts to build an aircraft
carrier and deploy more short-range missiles along
its east coast are focused on preventing a formal
declaration of Taiwanese independence and on
achieving the ability to take the island by force.
After the satellite-destroying test,
Taiwan questioned Beijing's commitment to keeping
peace in space and said the number of mainland
missiles aimed at the island stood at 900.
"This action is bad for regional
security," cabinet spokesman Cheng Wen-tsang was
quoted as saying on Monday. "This does not fit
with communist China's 'peaceful rise'. They say
one thing and do another."
The different
messages from Beijing's civilian and military
leaders on significant issues such as nuclear
policy are only heightening global concerns about
the ramifications of China's economic and military
rise.
While China's top diplomats have
tried to present the country as a benign power
that, in pointed contrast with the US, is
committed to a multipolar world and has only
goodwill toward other nations, China's military
leaders have been more assertive about Beijing's
need to broaden its strategic reach.
In
the defense white paper last month, Beijing said
it is pursuing a road to "peaceful development"
but stressed that the country's military power
should increase in step with its expanding economy
to protect China's increasingly global interests.
The satellite-killing test comes at a time
when China and the US are debating space nuclear
policy at the United Nations. Last year President
George W Bush signed an order asserting the right
of the US to deny adversaries access to space for
hostile purposes. Beijing's test, which was
carried out without a warning or explanation, has
been received as an indirect challenge to US
supremacy in space.
"We're looking for
greater understanding of exactly what their intent
was, what the specifics were surrounding this
test, as well as any programs they may have to
conduct future such tests," McCormack was quoted
as saying in Washington on Monday.
"The
bottom line is we encourage them to be more
forthcoming, more transparent with respect to not
only this test but also their space program,"
McCormack said.
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