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2 Europe itching to lift China arms
ban By Federico Bordonaro
on the basis of eight criteria
related to human rights, regional stability,
international terrorism, the risk of technology
transfer to "rogue states", and buyers'
technological and military capability.
The
real reason the embargo still lives is, therefore,
the geostrategic balance of power in East and
Southeast Asia, although officially human rights
remains the chief motivation.
Wrong
predictions of arms ban's lifting Europe's
inner divisions in defense policy and strategic
orientations are not only
causing a headache for European and North Atlantic
Treaty Organization decision-makers, but they're
also making it very difficult to predict its
moves.
Within the EU, France (overtly) and
Italy (more discreetly) are favorable to lifting
the arms ban. Paris even declared jointly with
Beijing, during a visit by Chinese President Hu
Jintao on January 28, 2004, that the embargo was
obsolete and that it should be eliminated soon.
After those declarations, which came at
the moment of highest tensions between Paris and
Washington on the Iraq war and on world affairs in
general, many observers predicted that the arms
ban was soon going to be lifted.
However,
the Franco-German strategic combine has lost much
of its cohesion in past years, especially after
Angela Merkel became Germany's new chancellor in
2005. As Germany started its rapprochement with
Washington and London on fundamental global
security matters, the pro-Atlanticist factions in
the EU were reinforced, while France, Belgium,
Spain and Italy experienced difficulties to
promote the idea of a strategically more
autonomous Europe.
Since 2004 Beijing has
repeatedly called for the end of the embargo, but
this January 18, the EU officially committed
itself to holding firm on the arms ban.
While China courted its best friends in
France and Germany, the US also lobbied in Europe
and for the moment, Washington apparently has
succeeded in influencing key decision-makers on
the Old Continent, isolating French President
Jacques Chirac's neo-Gaullists.
Moreover,
notwithstanding France and Germany's good
strategic relations with Russia, especially in the
2002-05 years, Moscow was - and still is - very
pleased with the ban, for obvious reasons.
If China is not allowed to acquire the
most advanced - and expensive - weapon systems
from Europe, it will necessarily choose Russia as
its main arms provider. Moscow thus obtains two
important results: it reinforces its
industrial-military complex financially and
strengthens its strategic ties with Beijing.
As a consequence, the predicted lifting of
the ban hasn't materialized over the past two
years. But Taiwan - just like the US - knows that
the match isn't over yet.
What's
next? Chen Shui-bian's preoccupations,
backed by US and Japan, reveal that the ban's
future remains uncertain. Key events that will
decisively influence any EU decision on the issue
will be France's domestic political changes,
Germany's geopolitical orientations, and the US
ability to promote a renewed trans-Atlantic
strategic community. Meanwhile, Beijing can be
expected to continue its courtship to Europe's
weapons producers.
The world is impatient
to see who will be the new ruler in Paris. Nicolas
Sarkozy, the new right-wing star, is known for
being much more pro-American than was Jacques
Chirac, while the Socialist candidate, Segolene
Royal, is apparently more classically Europeanist,
just like Christian Democrat outsider Francois
Bayrou. However, it is far from certain that a
more Atlanticist French president will renounce
Paris's old dream of a European superpower.
Even if France appears less influential
than before within Europe, one thing is clear. For
the growing European military-industrial complex,
whose main protagonists come from France, Germany,
Italy and Spain, China's military expansion will
remain too big a temptation for not thinking about
lifting the ban.
Note 1.
President Chen Shui-bian meets
visiting delegation from Britain's
RUSI, Office of the President, Republic
of China (Taiwan). Federico Bordonaro
is Europe editor and senior analyst with the
Power and Interest News Report (www.pinr.com), an
organization that utilizes open sources to provide
conflict analysis.
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