China. If you were
to reduce your analysis to a one-or-two-sentence
question or point for these communities, what
would you ask them to think about?
JM: I would ask them to drop
or put aside the prediction that political change
is inevitable and look at the likelihood of the
Chinese system staying as is. I am hoping people
will begin to think about American policy and
China's future with these things
in
mind.
BAS: How would you
respond to those who point toward, as one example,
the gradual transition of Hong Kong's pre-1970
political system and its incremental accommodation
of various reforms with the suggestion that
similar gradual changes are taking place in China,
and will have similar ultimate results?
JM: Two points: it is always
a mistake to draw conclusions comparing Hong Kong
to China, just as it is a mistake to compare China
with Singapore or South Korea, a point I make in
my book. Second, yes, China is allowing small
changes in Hong Kong, but the meaning these
changes have for China is ambiguous at best. You
can see limits to the democratic changes China is
going to allow in Hong Kong.
BAS: Is it, in your mind, a
situation where the sum of the parts of small
changes may not equal the whole of real reform?
JM: Yes.
BAS: It seemed to me that a
sub-text of your book is that the world might be
selling its soul - looking the other way on basic
questions of freedom and liberty - because of the
mutual economic incentives that exist between
China and the world. Is that correct and, if so,
what would such a compromise suggest about US
culture and politics?
JM: I
don't want to get bogged down in language, but I
think "selling its soul" is overstating things.
People who believe that an economic relationship
will result in liberalization can believe this
sincerely, but consequently serve certain business
interests. In a larger sense, this shows the
American belief that the world wants to become
like us and a reluctance on our part to recognize
that a country like China is determined to follow
its own path. People look at China and assume it
will develop just like us.
BAS: If we take your
criticism seriously, what types of changes would
you suggest policymakers look for within China to
indicate which of your scenarios is playing out?
JM: We need to look at the
right to dissent. We need to look at the ability
of organized political opposition to come
together. We need to look at whether judges can be
truly independent of the Communist Party. We need
to look at controls on the press.
BAS: Should the US focus on
holding China accountable to a specific set of
reforms beyond the mandatory World Trade
Organization compliance items and, if so, what
types of reforms do you believe would be most
efficacious at drawing out substantive change
within China?
JM: These
things [business and political change] can run on
their own track. There is a strong and legitimate
interest by American and other - European and
Japanese - countries for China to develop a
predictable rule of law and system for dispute
resolution. It is not hard for China to set up two
tracks of dissent, to focus on the rule of law in
a business sense, but not for individuals.
BAS: As someone quite
provoked by your cautionary analysis, I finished
this book with one looming question: If the
current model of "engagement" and "integration" is
inadequate (two words you want the US to use
carefully), what is the right way to engage China?
JM: I don't have a detailed
five-point answer on what our strategy should be.
"Engagement" as a concept is incredibly important;
of course we should talk to China's leaders, but
as a small "e", not a big "E" of engagement. I
would like to see America start to have a
discussion on what policies we should use and
whether we will be comfortable with the
possibility of an economically powerful one-party
Communist China in 20 years.
Benjamin A Shobert is the
managing director of Teleos Inc
(www.teleos-inc.com), a consulting firm dedicated
to helping Asian businesses bring innovative
technologies into the North American market.
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