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3 China's 'fifth generation' leaders
come of age By Cheng Li
Just as the US political arena has begun
to heat up in an off-election year, so too has
Chinese politics become even more dynamic as the
country's political clock winds its way toward the
convening of the 17th National Congress of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Since 1977,
the CCP has held a party congress every five
years. The congress has often been an occasion for
change in China's
top
leadership and for new directions in domestic and
foreign policies. Fervent jockeying for power
among various factions on the eve of the party
congress is common.
The 17th National
Congress, which is scheduled to convene this
autumn, will be no exception. More than 60% of the
Central Committee and about half of the Politburo
are expected to vacate their seats for newcomers
at the congress.
An anticipated
large-scale reshuffling While the current
top leaders, including President Hu Jintao and
Premier Wen Jiabao, will most likely remain in
power for another five-year term, the new
Politburo will consist of many newcomers,
especially younger members who are in their 50s.
This should come as no surprise, given
that the average ages of the current members of
the current Standing Committee of the Politburo,
the Politburo, and the Secretariat of the 16th
Central Committee are 67, 66 and 65, respectively.
With no exceptions, all members of these three
leadership bodies are now in their 60s or 70s. [1]
Among the nine members of the Politburo
Standing Committee, at least four - Luo Gan, 72,
Huang Ju, 69, Wu Guanzheng, 69, and Jia Qinglin,
67 - are expected to retire. In addition there are
16 seats in the current Politburo, including an
alternative member and the vacancy left by
disgraced former Shanghai party secretary Chen
Liangyu.
Nine of these 15 Politburo
members (Chen not counted) are also 65 or above,
and they will either be promoted to the Politburo
Standing Committee or retire. Some Politburo
members who are under 65 may also step down. In
fact, all 16 current Politburo members (including
Chen) were first-timers when they were appointed
to this leadership body in 2002. [2] It is
reasonable to anticipate that about 50% of both
the 17th Politburo and its Standing Committee will
be new faces.
Meanwhile, all but Liu
Yunshan, 60, on the seven-member CCP Secretariat
will likely vacate their seats to younger leaders.
[3] Although the leadership of the State Council
will not change until the 11th National People's
Congress next March, the candidates for the top
positions will most likely be decided at the 17th
Party Congress.
Largely because of the age
factor, three of four current vice premiers and
all five state councilors will most likely vacate
their seats through retirement or promotion. [4]
This means that the leadership teams for the
country's economic and financial administration,
foreign policy and military affairs will largely
consist of newcomers after this party congress.
A new team will likely replace current top
economic and financial decision-makers, including
Huang Ju, 69, Wu Yi, 68, Zeng Peiyan, 68, and Hua
Jianmin, 67. The leading candidates are Ma Kai,
minister of the National Development and Reform
Commission, 61; Li Rongrong, minister of the
State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration
Commission, 63; Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the
People's Bank, 59; Bo Xilai, minister of commerce,
58; and Lou Jiwei, deputy secretary general of the
State Council, 57.
Some current provincial
leaders, such as Beijing Mayor Wang Qishan, 59,
Tianjin Mayor Dai Xianglong, 63, Shanghai Mayor
Han Zheng, 53, and Chongqing Party Secretary Wang
Yang, 52, are also among the leading candidates
for posts as vice premiers in charge of economic
and financial matters.
The Central
Committee (CC) will also undergo a large-scale
reshuffling. At present, 68% of the 356 members
(both full and alternatives) of the 16th CC are
more than 60 years old, and among the 198 full
members, 88% are more than 60. Most of them belong
to the so-called "fourth generation" of leaders.
The turnover rate of the Central Committee
has been remarkably high over the past 25 years;
newcomers constituted 60% of the 12th CC in 1982,
68% of the 13th CC in 1987, 57% of the 14th CC in
1992, 63% of the 15th CC in 1997 and 61% of the
16th CC in 2002 (Asian Survey, July/August 2002).
Based on the current age distribution and the
turnover rates at previous party congresses, we
can expect that roughly 60% of the members of the
17th congress will be first-timers.
This
upcoming party congress will likely be the coming
of age of the "fifth generation" of Chinese
leaders, defined as those who were born in the
1950s. The fifth generation of leaders consists of
many "sent-down youth", who are often referred to
as members of "the lost generation" of the
Cultural Revolution.
This generation
differs profoundly from preceding generations in
terms of their formative experiences, educational
credentials, political socialization,
administrative backgrounds, foreign
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