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3 China's 'fifth generation' leaders
come of age By Cheng Li
contacts and world views. The
collective characteristics and intra-generational
diversity of the fifth generation of leaders will
likely have a strong impact on the country's
political trajectory and socio-economic policies
in the years to come. [5]
Hu's
successor designated? Rightly or wrongly,
a great deal of public attention will be given to
the issue of Hu Jintao's successor. This is
understandable
because Hu served on the
Politburo Standing Committee for 10 years before
taking the post of general secretary in 2002.
Hu's previous 10-year-long membership on
the Standing Committee not only allowed him to
gain leadership experience in the country's
highest political institution, but also placed him
as the first among equals in the fourth generation
in line to succeed president Jiang Zemin. Based on
this political precedent, it seems necessary for
the Chinese political establishment to identify
Hu's successor during this upcoming congress. With
an adequate "reserve" period near the center of
power, this heir apparent will be able to take
over the top leadership when Hu completes his
second term at the 18th Party Congress in 2012.
Largely because of the current Chinese
obsession with age in elite recruitment, the heir
apparent is unlikely to be chosen from the pool of
current members of the Politburo. The youngest
member of the current Standing Committee, Li
Changchun, is only two years younger than Hu
Jintao, and the youngest current Politburo member,
Liu Yunshan, is only five years younger than Hu.
The CCP's norm of promoting leaders in batches,
within somewhat narrow age brackets, suggests that
Hu's designated successor will most likely be a
new face in the 2007 Politburo.
It is
unclear, however, whether the 17th Party Congress
will select a single younger leader, the "core"
leader of the fifth generation, to be the
successor to Hu or will choose two to four "rising
stars" from that age group to wait in line for
succession to the top posts in the party and the
state. This largely depends on whether or not a
consensus or a willingness to compromise exists
among competing factions, as well as the degree of
confidence that the old guards have regarding the
loyalty and the ability of the newcomers.
In recent years, Chinese public opinion
has been critical of the traditional method of
appointing the heir apparent. Top leaders' recent
rhetoric about the promotion of collective
leadership and inner-party democracy seems to
suggest that they may choose a few leading
candidates from the fifth generation rather than
simply appoint one "core" figure (Wenhuibao, March
12).
It is likely that two to four rising
stars of the fifth generation will be promoted to
the Politburo or the Standing Committee at the
17th Party Congress. [6] These potential
successors will acquire more political capital,
compete with one another, gain further
endorsements from Hu and other top leaders, and
become more familiar to the Chinese public over
the next five years.
In contrast to many
democratic countries, where top politicians may
not have much administrative experience in their
previous careers, China's political rising stars
have usually been on the list of "future leaders",
prepared by the CCP Organization Department, for
15-20 years. Although no one, perhaps not even Hu
Jintao himself, knows which younger leader will
finally be appointed as the general secretary of
the party, the pool of candidates is clear.
As part of the norms of Chinese elite
recruitment, the candidates for top leadership
should be current members or alternatives of the
Central Committee, should have substantial
leadership experience in provincial-level
administration, and should be more or less
acceptable to all current top leaders and
factions.
Among all the candidates, four
leaders - Liaoning Party Secretary Li Keqiang, 52,
Jiangsu Party Secretary Li Yuanchao, 57, Chongqing
Party Secretary Wang Yang, 52, and newly appointed
Shanghai Party Secretary Xi Jinping, 54 - are
apparently the front-runners.
Their
advantages over other potential candidates stem
from their current administrative positions, broad
leadership experiences, strong patron-client ties
and educational credentials. For example, three of
these four rising stars hold advanced degrees in
economics, politics or law; the other holds a
master's degree in economic management. None of
them are entirely new to the Chinese public; all
have served on the vice-provincial and ministerial
levels of leadership for about two decades.
The first three leaders, known as the
tuanpai faction, have advanced their
careers through the vehicle of the Chinese
Communist Youth League. They have been under the
patronage of Hu Jintao ever since the early 1980s
when Hu was in charge of the league. Many other
tuanpai leaders are also poised for
promotion.
Tuanpai leaders
currently occupy one-third of the top provincial
positions (party secretaries and governors) and
about one-fourth of the ministerial posts of the
State Council and directorships of the CCP central
departments. Some of them could potentially be
dark-horse candidates in the race for power at the
17th Party Congress. [7]
With so many of
his tuanpai proteges in line for promotion,
Hu Jintao will, for the first time since he
assumed the post of CCP
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