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3 China's 'fifth generation' leaders
come of age By Cheng Li
general secretary in 2002, have his
own team in the national leadership. Consequently,
Hu should be able to move more aggressively to
reshape China's economic and socio-political
development in line with his own vision and
perceived mandate.
The next
phase It has widely been recognized that in
the 16th Politburo, Hu Jintao has been surrounded
by Jiang Zemin's proteges, known as the "Shanghai
Gang". Six of the nine members of the Politburo
Standing Committee have
pledged their loyalty to Jiang rather than to Hu.
This gravity of power, however, will shift in Hu's
favor after the 17th National Congress. The recent
removal of Chen Liangyu, a Politburo member and
former Shanghai party secretary, reflects Hu's
growing power. The main challenge for the
factional balance of power in China now is how
best to constrain Hu's power.
This
challenge has become even more acute because Vice
President Zeng Qinghong, 68, a political
heavyweight in Chinese politics and a prominent
figure of the Shanghai Gang, may retire after the
17th Party Congress (China Brief, December 6,
2006). Zeng's relationship with Hu is both
competitive and cooperative.
Zeng is
currently in charge of personnel affairs in the
CCP and he may decide to use his own retirement to
set a good example and urge other senior officials
to vacate their seats in favor of younger leaders.
Yet at the same time, Zeng may promote several of
his longtime friends to the new Politburo and its
Standing Committee. Three of Zeng's
confidants, Hubei Party Secretary Yu Zhengsheng,
62, Minister of Public Security Zhou Yongkang, 65,
and Guangdong Party Secretary Zhang Dejiang, 61,
are already in the current Politburo, and one or
two of them may be promoted to the Standing
Committee.
Because of his own background
as the son of a revolutionary veteran, Zeng has
long been seen as a patron of the "princelings"
(children of the high-ranking officials). Zeng may
promote princelings such as Xi Jinping, Ma Kai,
Wang Qishan, Bo Xilai, Zhou Xiaochuan and Hebei
Party Secretary Bai Keming, 64, to the next
Politburo.
Some of Zeng's proteges from
Shanghai who are not princelings, such as Director
of the Central Policy Research Center of the
Central Committee Wang Huning, 52, Jiangxi Party
Secretary Meng Jianzhu, 60, and Han Zheng are also
candidates for membership in the next Politburo or
Secretariat.
All of the leaders who are
close to Zeng will likely seek to prevent the
possibility that Hu-linked tuanpai leaders
will dominate the membership of the next
Politburo. Many of Zeng's proteges have expertise
and experience in economic administration,
especially in finance, banking and foreign trade -
areas in which tuanpai faction leaders are
characteristically weak.
The upcoming 17th
Party Congress will test the political wisdom and
the abilities of top Chinese leaders, such as Hu
and Zeng. But in a far more important sense, it
will serve as a litmus test to determine whether
China is capable of taking further steps toward
institutionalizing norms of leadership transition
and power-sharing. Notes 1.
The youngest member of the current Politburo, Liu
Yunshan, director of the CCP Publicity Department,
was born in July 1947 and thus will be in his
early 60s when the 17th National Congress of the
party convenes this autumn. 2. Wu Yi was
promoted from alternative to full member status at
the previous Politburo. 3. The other six
members are Zeng Qinghong, 68, Zhou Yongkang, 65,
He Guoqiang, 64, Wang Gang, 65, Xu Caihou, 64, and
He Yong, 67. 4. Among the four vice premiers,
Huang Ju, 69, Wu Yi, 68, and Zeng Peiyan, 68, will
likely retire, while Hui Liangyu, 63, is more
likely to stay. Among the five state councilors,
Zhou Yongkang, 65, Cao Gangchuan, 72, Tang
Jiaxuan, 69, Hua Jianmin, 67, and Chen Zhili, 65,
will probably step down and be replaced. Zhou
Yongkang may be promoted to the Standing Committee
to replace Luo Gan. 5. The upcoming two-day
conference "Changes in China's Political
Landscape: The 17th Party Congress and Beyond", to
be held by the John L Thornton China Center at the
Brookings Institution on April 12-13, will examine
various aspects of China's political developments,
including the implications of the coming of age of
the "fifth generation" of Chinese leaders. 6.
This largely depends on the total number of
full-member seats on the Politburo and its
Standing Committee. There is no rule regarding
these numbers and they have fluctuated over time.
7. Among other tuanpai leaders in the
provincial leadership, Shanxi Party Secretary
Zhang Baoshun, 57, Guangxi Party Secretary Liu
Qibao, 54, Shaanxi Governor Yuan Chunqing, 55,
Inner Mongolia Governor Yang Jing, 54, and Tibet
Party Secretary Zhang Qingli, 56, are also
candidates for Politburo membership.
Dr Cheng Li is the William R
Kenan professor of government at Hamilton College
in New York and a visiting fellow at the John L
Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution
in Washington, DC. Li is conducting research on
the fifth generation of leaders, who are expected
to emerge during the 17th Party Congress.
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