A
death of passing political
importance
By Wu Zhong, China Editor
HONG KONG - The death of Chinese vice premier Huang Ju, the country's No 6
leader in the Communist Party's hierarchy, will have little impact on the
leadership reshuffle in the 17th Party Congress in the autumn. And it is
unlikely that the vacancy in the Standing Committee of the Politburo left by
Huang will be refilled before the congress, which is just a few months away.
The official obituary said Huang "died at 2:03am June 2 in Beijing" but did not
list a cause of death. But he was reportedly to have been suffering from
pancreatic cancer since early last year. He
made his last public appearance at this year's annual session of the People's
National Congress (NPC) in March.
Huang was born in September 1938 in the coastal province of Zhejiang and joined
the Communist Party in 1966. His base was Shanghai, where he climbed through
the ranks and came to the attention of Jiang Zemin, then party boss in the city
and later president of China. Huang himself was Shanghai party secretary from
1995 until 2002, when he was named by Jiang to join the Politburo Standing
Committee in Beijing. Thus Huang was regarded as a protege of Jiang and a key
member of the so-called Shanghai clique.
Last September, President Hu Jintao sacked Chen Liangyu as Shanghai party
secretary and suspended his Politburo membership for suspected corruption. This
has been widely seen as Hu's victory in weakening the influence of the
Shanghai. Chen was a protege of Huang. Ever since then rumors have swirled that
Huang might be toppled in the sweeping corruption investigation in Shanghai.
However, the official obituary called Huang "an excellent member of the Chinese
Communist Party, a long-tested and faithful communist fighter and an
outstanding leader of the party and the state". The obituary was issued by the
CCP Central Committee, the NPC Standing Committee, the State Council and the
National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
(CPPCC). Huang was the highest-ranking Chinese official to die in office since
1976, and a state funeral will be held.
Despite the praise and honor given to Huang, following protocol, analysts say
his political influence had already diminished even before his death, and thus
his passage could hardly upset the upcoming leadership reshuffle in the 17th
Party Congress.
"With the smashing of the Shanghai clique symbolized by Chen's dismissal, plus
his illness, Huang's political life was doomed," said a political scientist in
Beijing. "Even if he lived through the 17th Party Congress, there would be no
chance for him to be elected into the Politburo Standing Committee again. His
longtime illness further weakened his influence. Before his death, Huang had
had little say in the leadership reshuffle in the 17th Party Congress. Hence
his passing will not have an impact on the upcoming party meeting."
Nor will Huang's death interrupt the current operation of the central
government. His responsibilities as the executive vice premier were taken over
by Premier Wen Jiabao and some other vice premiers after he became seriously
ill. "He had not been working for at least a few months already," another
analyst in Beijing said.
And it is very unlikely that Huang's vacancy will be filled before the
congress. "The 17th Party Congress is just several months away, which will
elect a new Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee. There is no urgent need
to fill the vacancy," the political scientist said.
In any case, according to the CCP constitution, the party needs to convene a
plenary session of the Central Committee to re-elect a new member to replace
Huang in the Politburo Standing Committee. It takes some time to prepare for
the convention of a plenary session of the Central Committee. So technically
speaking, it is not worthwhile to re-elect someone to replace Huang just for a
short period.
On the other hand, some vice premier, say Wu Yi or Zeng Peiyan, could be
appointed as executive vice premier until early next year when a new cabinet is
formed, for this is a matter of division of labor in the State Council, or
cabinet, which can be settled more easily.
Coincidentally, the latest issue of The Mirror, a pro-Beijing monthly published
in Hong Kong, says four of the current nine members of the Politburo Standing
Committee will step down and be replaced by new blood.
It does not say which four will leave, but Huang definitely was one of them.
Another two, Wu Guanzheng, 69, and Luo Gan, 72, are the most likely to retire
because of their age. And a fourth member to step down could be either Jia
Qinglin or Li Changchun, though not on account of their age.
Jia Qinglin, 67, who is also chairman of the CPPCC, the country's top political
advisory body, is widely regarded as a close ally of Jiang. Jia was deputy
party chief and then party chief of Fujian province in 1985-96, including the
time of the notorious Yuanhua smuggling case.
Former Yuanhua boss Lai Changxing, a smuggling kingpin now seeking asylum in
Canada, openly admitted he knew Jia's wife well. Whether Jia was personally
involved in the case remains unclear, but at least he could be held accountable
as the then No 1 leader of Fujian.
And in 1996-2002, Jia was hand-picked by Jiang to work as mayor and then party
secretary of Beijing municipality. Now some corruption scandals in Beijing have
been exposed involving Jia's former aides and friends. He thus could be forced
to step down.
Li Changchun, 63, is the party's propaganda czar and currently the youngest
member of the Politburo Standing Committee. If he steps down, it will likely be
because of his health. Rumors have it that Li was found to have early-phase
stomach cancer in early 2005, which has so far been contained after treatment.
If this is true, he is likely to step down, given the lesson from Huang Ju.
In any case, The Mirror says, in preliminary nominations within the party, the
likely candidates to replace the four are Guangdong provincial party secretary
Zhang Dejiang, 60, Hubei provincial party secretary Yu Zhengsheng, 62, Minister
of Public Security Zhou Yongkang, 64, and Liaoning provincial party secretary
Li Keqiang. At present, Li Keqiang is a member of the Central Committee, while
the other three are Politburo members.
The list cannot be immediately confirmed. But Beijing analysts say it is quite
possible because it suggests a power balance for a smooth transition.
"Hu needs to seek a balance of power at the top for a smooth transition," the
political scientist said. "Although he has already gained his authority, he
cannot rely on one faction, say the Chinese Communist Youth League [CYL]
faction, to rule such a huge party and country."
Yu Zhengsheng is one of the princelings. Li Keqiang used to work under Hu in
the CYL Central Committee and is regarded as Hu's close protege and a likely
successor. Zhang Dejiang and Zhou Yongkang are said to have been close to
Jiang, though they may also have changed sides.
If this list is accurate, then Hu would have the majority support in the
Politburo Standing Committee with the support of Wen and Vice President Zeng
Qinghong, who is the leader of the princelings, even if Jiang retains some
influence.
Some of the current 24 Politburo members will retire and some will be promoted
(and Chen Liangyu was disgraced), and the vacancies will be filled by new
personalities.
The Mirror reports that in preliminary nominations within the party, the most
popular candidates for the new Politburo in the 17th Party Congress are as
follows: Xi Jinping, 54, the new Shanghai municipal party secretary and also a
princeling; Liu Yandong, 51, director of the party's Central Department of
United Front Work and also a princeling; Zhang Gaoli, 60, the new Tianjin
municipal party secretary; Bo Xilai, 58, minister of commerce and also a
princeling; Li Yuanchao, 56, Jiangsu provincial party secretary and a CYL
veteran; Wang Yang, 52, Chongqing municipal party secretary and a CYL veteran
and Premier Wen's protege; Wang Qishan, 59, Beijing mayor and a princeling; Ma
Kai, 61, minister in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission;
Meng Jainzhu, 60, Jianxi provincial party secretary.
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