News of Wen's retirement shot down
By Poon Siu-tao
HONG KONG - In a very unusual move, Beijing has reacted promptly to dismiss an
overseas report that Premier Wen Jiabao, No 3 leader in the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) hierarchy, has declined to taken a second term, saying he has had
enough with the heavy workload after five years.
This shows how sensitive the issues are relating to reshuffle of the top
Chinese leadership ahead of the 17th National Congress of the CCP. On the other
hand, Beijing's prompt dismissal of the
report seems to suggest strongly that Wen will take another five-year term as
premier after he completes his first term next March.
Last weekend, Japan's Kyodo news agency quoted unidentified sources as saying
Wen felt that five years of running the country was enough for him, but he
would continue sitting in the nine-member Standing Committee of the Politburo
after the 17th Party Congress and was likely to take the post as chairman of
the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the country's
parliament. But the report also conceded that because there was no strong
contender to succeed him, Wen might have to stay on as premier.
In the past, Beijing has remained silent on overseas reports about its senior
leaders. So the government's prompt reaction this time is extraordinary, though
maybe not so surprising.
On Monday, a spokesman for Foreign Minister Liu Jianchao told reporters, "I
doubt that news." Liu, who is also head of the ministry's Information
Department, summoned Kyodo's representatives in Beijing to slam the report as
"fabricated" and "utterly irresponsible".
The Kyodo report came at a very sensitive moment. In a few months, the 17th
Party Congress is to convene to decide on a sweeping reshuffle of China's
central leadership. It has been widely expected that Wen, now a close ally of
President Hu Jintao, will remain in the power core. Hence the Kyodo report
naturally invited speculation whether the popular premier really wants to quit.
According to the Kyodo report, Wen told his intimate aides that the workload of
the premiership was so heavy that he could only sleep four hours a day, so a
single five-year term was enough for him.
At this point, it is not certain whether Wen ever said such words or they were
fabricated by his political rivals for their own interests. Nor is it known
whether, if he did actually say the words, he seriously meant them or just
occasionally vented his feelings in private given the enormous pressures of his
job. After all, he is a human being, in spite of his rank.
In any case, such complaints could be easily used as a leverage against him in
the 17th Party Congress. The CCP power center apparently does not want to see
its reshuffle plan be influenced by rumors. Hence the prompt reaction from the
Foreign Ministry, which could have been instructed by Wen himself.
Being premier of China, a country with 1.3 billion people, is never easy, and
there is no way Wen would have underestimated it before taking the job. And
some of his policies have offended some interest groups within and outside the
CCP. It is thus not strange that he has been constantly confronted with
pressures, particularly from those inside the party's upper echelons, who are
unhappy with his reform-minded policies.
Wen has pushed two major policies since he became premier in March 2003. The
first is the macroeconomic-control policy since early 2004 to cool down the
country's overheating economy, which has met strong resistance form local-level
bureaucrats. Lately, speculation is pushing up both the stock markets and the
real-estate sector, further inflating the market bubbles. It seems that the CCP
leadership has yet to reach a consensus on how to achieve a soft landing for
the economy. Under such circumstances, the premier occupies a hot seat.
Wen's other big move is to facilitate development in agriculture to boost
prosperity in rural villages and among farmers, as well as to enforce his
people-first administration. In the past four years, the government has devoted
greater attention to agriculture than in the past two decades. Beijing has not
only abolished taxes on agriculture, but also granted subsidies to grain
growers since the beginning of this year.
All these measures show that Premier Wen is determined to spend more resources
on rural development, so as to lay down a foundation for China's sustainable
development, which some high-ranking leaders apparently oppose - particularly
the previous generation of core leaders who had long played down rural issues.
Although Wen has been under pressure from his rivals and critics, the chance of
his quitting his job is very slim. Those who know Wen well say the premier,
gentle and cultivated in appearance, is tough in character and highly
responsible. Bowing out of power and leaving poor farmers at the mercy of
urban-biased policies again may be the last thing Wen would like to do at this
moment. So it can be presumed that should the premier resign later, the
decision would not be made out of his own free will.
In addition, the upcoming power transition in the 17th Party Congress does not
allow Wen to quit on short notice. Executive vice premier Huang Ju died last
week. Two of the remaining three vice premiers, Wu Yi and Zeng Peiyan, are
already 69 years old and bound to retire next year.
The only vice premier likely to stay is Hui Liangyu, 63, who is known for his
so-so educational background, working capability and performance. Under such
circumstances, Wen's departure would deal a heavy blow to a smooth succession
of the cabinet, and this is a situation that the CCP, which puts political and
social stability above everything else, will try to avoid.
At present, China's economic situation is getting ever more complicated, with
social conflicts intensifying as various interest groups work behind the scenes
hoping to bend central government policies to serve their own interests. But
among the high-ranking officials, only a few are of Wen's caliber. If Wen
leaves office at this crucial time, his efforts in pushing macro-control and
helping the disadvantaged may achieve little or nothing.
For those reasons, the odds are that the incumbent premier will not exit the
next government. And Beijing's prompt dismissal of the Kyodo report seems to
suggest this strongly. Maybe this is the answer Kyodo was trying to get by
dispatching the weekend news story.
From another perspective, however, the hearsay-based report has also shown that
the power struggle inside the CCP top caste is intensifying and increasingly
coming to the surface as the party congress draws near. Various factions may
deliberately spread rumors to smear their rivals or test reactions.
Poon Siu-tao is a freelance writer for the Chinese edition of Asia Times
Online.
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