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2 Taiwan's UN bid risks allies'
ire By Ting-I Tsai
TAIPEI - When Washington in mid-June
openly opposed Taiwan's plan to hold a referendum
on its United Nations membership in the name of
"Taiwan", Taipei immediately chastised Washington,
saying it had no right to interfere in the
island's "domestic affairs".
But for the
United States and possibly other countries, the
issue goes far beyond Taiwan's domestic affairs,
as they fear it could
spark unnecessary tensions
across the Taiwan Strait.
Foreign
countries' disapproval of the referendum proposal
has posed a serious challenge to Taiwan's external
relations, one that may grow bigger as legislative
and presidential elections approach and rhetoric
on the sovereignty issue and the UN referendum
mounts.
Analysts in Washington and Taipei
suggested recently that President Chen Shui-bian's
determination to push through the referendum might
lead the once Taiwan-friendly administration of US
President George W Bush to shift its policy from
"not supporting" Taiwan independence to explicitly
"opposing" it. The move also "will almost
certainly lead to a weaker international position
for Taipei", an analyst in Washington warned.
"First, Washington, Tokyo and other
democratic 'allies' of Taiwan may openly lobby UN
members to vote against Taipei. This would be the
first time the USA has actively moved against
Taiwan in the UN," said Mike Green, former special
assistant to the president for national-security
affairs and senior director for Asian affairs at
the National Security Council. "This will open
opportunities for Beijing to further isolate
Taiwan in international organizations and to
convince key allies of Taipei to switch relations
to Beijing."
Taiwan's government plans to
submit an application for UN membership under the
name "Taiwan" (rather than "Republic of China",
the name under which it held a seat previously) at
the General Assembly in September, ending an
approach that has been in place since 1993 of
requesting that its diplomatic allies initiate the
bid. The new gambit, however, is doomed to certain
failure, as the application would be first
reviewed by the Security Council, where the
People's Republic of China has a permanent seat
and veto power.
The UN General Assembly's
Resolution 2758, adopted in January 1971, could
also obstruct Taiwan's bid, as it has in the past.
According to the resolution, the General Assembly
"decides to restore all its rights to the People's
Republic of China and to recognize the
representatives of its government as the only
legitimate representatives of China to the United
Nations, and to expel forthwith the
representatives of Chiang Kai-shek ..." The
resolution, therefore, has made it impossible for
Taiwan to continue its previous approach of
"returning" to the UN using its official name,
"Republic of China".
UN Secretary General
Ban Ki-moon, furthermore, reportedly interpreted
the resolution as "Taiwan is part of China, and
has no right to apply for anything in the UN."
Supporters of Taiwan's UN bid argue, however, that
the resolution deals only with China's lawful
rights in the UN but ignores Taiwan's legal
status.
Taiwan's ruling Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) plans to hold a
demonstration in support of the UN bid on
September 15, and Chen is reportedly evaluating
the possibility of bringing the case to the
International Court of Justice. The referendum on
the UN - which is still being screened to see if
meets the basic legal requirements - would then be
held next March in conjunction with Taiwan's
presidential election.
The DPP could
present the referendum as a move to expand
Taiwan's diplomatic space in the face of
rejection, but most academics in Washington see it
as an exercise in political cynicism, designed to
capitalize on the failure of Taiwan's UN bid in
September by consolidating voters' anger toward
mainland China.
Harvey Feldman, senior
fellow for Asian studies at the Heritage
Foundation, a co-author of the US Taiwan Relations
Act, and one of the creators of the American
Institute in Taiwan, noted that the idea "is
mostly an attempt to mobilize the [ruling
'pan-green' coalition] base and make sure it
votes. As far as getting into the UN is concerned,
it is an essentially meaningless gesture."
Dennis Hickey, professor of the Missouri
State University's political science department,
echoed Feldman, arguing, "In Washington's view,
domestic politics is driving the Chen
administration to once again engage in provocative
behavior - activities that outrage Beijing - in
order to realize some domestic political gains."
But Hickey added that the referendum may
not have long-term repercussions: "A termination
of American support for Taiwan is not in the cards
- after all, Chen is a lame duck."
Chen
officially expressed his intention to hold a
referendum on Taiwan's UN bid along with next
year's presidential election on
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