HONG KONG - When the Year of the Boar
began more than five months ago with gaudy
fireworks and countless prognostications, not a
single fortune-teller predicted that it would be
marked by price increases that have made pork, a
mainstay of the Chinese diet, unaffordable to the
average person in China.
That, however,
has turned out to be the case. And the cost of
pork, along with other traditional hallmarks of
Chinese culinary
life,
is likely to continue to rise.
Indeed, as
the country's leaders approach this autumn's
all-important 17th National Congress of the
Chinese Communist Party, they might find
themselves more focused on food than statecraft.
Then again, in China, the two can be one in the
same.
Let's not forget that precipitous
hikes in food prices played a part in the 1989
student-led democracy demonstrations, which ended
in the bloody Tiananmen Square crackdown. But that
was then, and this is now. A crisis seems
unlikely, but government officials are clearly
worried about the potential for social unrest.
The Chinese economy steamed ahead in the
second quarter of this year, with annual growth in
gross domestic product reaching an 11-year high of
11.9%. The problem is that inflation hit a
33-month high of 4.4% against a targeted rate of
3%. The bigger problem is that food prices, which
increased by 7.6%, led the charge. The chief
culprit was pork, the price of which has jumped
60% over a year ago. Such steep price hikes are
alarming in a country of 1.3 billion people who
are the No 1 pork consumers in the world.
It is easy to get lost in all the stories
of China's breakneck economic growth and rapid
urbanization and forget that 60% of the population
remains in the countryside, where poverty is rife.
For the newly rich in the cities, rising food
prices are an annoying inconvenience. In rural
China, the cost of food, especially pork, is of
paramount importance.
Even in the cities,
however, there are signs of desperation. A
newspaper in the southern city of Shenzhen, which
borders Hong Kong, recently reported that four
robbers set upon a vendor making his way to market
on a motorcycle, stealing both his bike and the
125 kilograms of pork he was carrying.
"They took the pork because it was more
expensive than the motorcycle," a policeman was
quoted as saying, adding that the motorcycle could
be sold for around US$130, but the pork was worth
more than $400. Fortunately, the thieves were
apprehended. But inflated pork prices are not
the only problem. The cost of other key
commodities is also on the rise. The Beijing News
reported last week that, because of increases in
the price of wheat, rice flour, palm oil and other
ingredients, people will soon be paying up to 40%
more for another Chinese favorite: a bowl of
instant noodles. Fast-food chains have also warned
of impending price increases.
According to
the National Bureau of Statistics, the cost of
eggs has shot up 27.9% since last summer, and the
price of beef and fowl jumped 20.7%. Grain prices
were up 6.4%. And, in announcing all this bad
news, NBS spokesman Li Xiaochao promised no
relief, saying that prices could rise further in
the second half of this year.
Li
attributed soaring pork prices to cost increases
for foodstuffs and transportation, higher wages
for workers in the industry, and narrow profit
margins caused by a supply shortage that has been
exacerbated by a lethal virus called "blue-ear
disease".
The Ministry of Agriculture has
reported 651 outbreaks of the virus, also known as
porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, in
25 provinces so far this year. The disease struck
165,144 pigs, killing 45,546; another 42,728 were
culled. But the ministry's deputy director, Li
Jinxiang, said a new vaccine should reduce
infections starting this month, encouraging
farmers, many of whom have stopped raising pigs,
once again to see pig breeding as a profitable
enterprise.
Moreover, according to the
official Xinhua news agency, no less a figure than
Premier Wen Jiabao has ordered local governments
to offer financial incentives to pig farmers to
increase production.
"Sustainable pig
breeding and reasonable pork prices play an
important role in stabilizing food markets," Wen
told a meeting of the State Council called
specifically to address the politics of pork. "We
should try all sorts of means to motivate farmers
to raise pigs."
No doubt with past student
protests in mind, the Ministry of Education has
begun subsidizing pork consumed on university
campuses, and municipal governments are also now
kicking in to help poor families afford to keep
pork on their tables.
In a real pinch,
China could tap its strategic pork reserves. Yes,
the government has been raising hundreds of
thousands of pigs on farms created with just such
a crisis in mind. The Ministry of Commerce keeps a
national reserve, and many local governments keep
their own stocks.
In the end, the
government believes it has enough measures in
place to appease the restless countryside - where,
ironically, farmers are benefiting little from
rising food costs because of their
disease-stricken pig stocks, lessening demand, and
disparities between wholesale and retail price
increases. The 40% rise in the price of the
cheapest meal in China - instant noodles -
reflects their plight.
Angry food protests
are the last thing Chinese leaders want to see
ahead of October's party congress and next
summer's Beijing Olympics, when the country hopes
to showcase its rich culture and stunning economic
success story on the world stage. Also, of course,
as the world's greatest athletes compete, they
would like to serve up a lot delicious, reasonably
priced Chinese cuisine.
Remember, so
important is food in China that the most common
greeting in Chinese translates as "Have you
eaten?" The answer needs to be a vast, collective
affirmative.
Kent Ewing is a
teacher and writer at Hong Kong International
School. He can be reached at
kewing@hkis.edu.hk.
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