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3 Beijing dips its toes in troubled
waters By Pallavi Aiyar
or recycle it. For industry,
China's water-consumption efficiency is one-tenth
that of developed countries.
Both Liu and
Liebenthal thus agree that the government could
help the situation by introducing market
mechanisms that would create incentives for
consumers to use water more efficiently.
But raising the price of water,
particularly for farmers - given food-
security concerns - is
politically difficult for the government.
Moreover, Ma says that even were the government
able to increase the cost of water without
suffering a negative political fallout, the
measure would leave untackled the real culprit
behind the crisis: pollution.
He has
similar criticisms against what is currently
Beijing's most ambitious solution to the water
problems: the South-North Water Diversion Project.
The project, the largest ever of its kind,
is expected to cost $62 billion by the time of
completion in 2050. Involving the construction of
three 1,280km channels connecting the water-rich
south to the arid north, the project is eventually
expected to divert 44.8 billion cubic meters of
water annually to the population centers of the
north. Large parts of the construction of the
eastern and middle routes are scheduled for
completion by 2010.
"The South-North Water
Diversion can only function as an emergency-relief
project," said Ma. "Even when it's complete it
will only make up a part of the water shortfall in
the north and, given its expense, I doubt whether
it is an economical solution to the problem."
Liu agrees that the grandiose project will
not fix any of the fundamental issues underlying
China's water woes and may even create further
environmental problems of its own, in addition to
necessitating the relocation of 250,000 people.
The planned diversion of water from
southern rivers also has some foreign governments
worried, given that several rivers that originate
in China eventually cross borders and flow into
neighboring nations. Dams along the Mekong River
have thus caused concerns in Cambodia, Laos and
Vietnam. India and Bangladesh are also known to be
keeping a close eye on reports that China may be
planning to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra
River.
China has a long history of linking
development and "progress" with large-scale
engineering projects, such as the Three Gorges
Dam. The country thus boasts about 46% of the
total dams in the world, including 20,000 dams
that are classified as "big".
"But
although there are still some within the Chinese
government who believe you can fix everything
through engineering, overall there is a
realization that this is simply untrue," said Liu.
Ma agrees. "For the current
administration, the priorities are sustainable
development and a more harmonious approach between
man and nature rather than the traditional
dominant notion that nature is simply there for
man to harness," he said.
The reasons for
this change, according to Ma, are in the central
government having realized the linkages among the
water crisis, public health and social stability.
"They cannot afford economically or politically to
ignore the issue anymore."
In March 2006,
China's 11th Five-Year Plan thus set a target of
reducing pollution discharges by 10% in 10 years'
time. Although the pollution-control goals for
2006 were not met, Premier Wen Jiabao announced
this year that he would lead a new task force to
ensure better compliance with targets. Greater
recycling of water and more aggressive treatment
of wastewater is also being promoted. A wastewater
levy was introduced in 2002, followed by a 2003
regulation that raised fines for polluters.
Beijing is also threatening to cut central
government funding to localities that fail to meet
pollution-control targets. Some provinces have
even announced financial incentives of up to 1
million yuan for city officials who prove
effective in combating pollution.
The
central government's efforts have so far met with
mixed results. Asserting Beijing's will on largely
fiscally independent and powerful local
governments is more of a formidable challenge than
often imagined.
But Ma points out that
despite the imperfect way in which the writ of
Beijing is implemented countrywide, the very fact
that Beijing itself is taking serious cognizance
of the water crisis holds out hope.
"I am
optimistic," he said, "because China is still a
very top-down country, and you need support from
the top to achieve anything. That's the first
step, and we now have that."
However,
despite his optimism, Ma cautions that the next
step will be both more difficult and crucial:
increasing transparency and public participation.
While some critics hold that making this
change is impossible without first doing away with
China's one-party political system, Ma believes
that a stronger civil society can emerge even
within the current political context.
"What we really need is to develop the
rule of law, to ensure that the government's own
rules regarding social and environmental impact
assessments are followed before granting
permission to factories or infrastructure
projects," he said. He pointed to NGOs like his
own as well as to a growing domestic media
engagement with environmental issues as proof that
a nascent civil society has already taken root in
China.
While there is room for debating
Ma's position, what is clear is that unless
fundamental policy changes are both made and
implemented, China's aspirations to superpower
status may be thwarted by something as
"commonplace" as water. For the country's
leadership, the management of its water resources
is thus a litmus test, and the manner in which
Beijing tackles this test will determine whether
the country's future will be great, or simply
thirsty.
Pallavi Aiyar is the
China correspondent for The Hindu.
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