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WUKONG Balancing act at the party
congress By Wu Zhong, China
Editor
HONG KONG - The Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) will open its 17th National Congress
on October 15, according to a decision made by the
Politburo at a meeting on August 28. But except
for the date, no information about the leadership
reshuffle has been revealed.
On the
surface, the CCP may want to give an impression
that its
new
Central Committee, the Politburo and the Standing
Committee of the Politburo will be
"democratically" elected among themselves, by the
2,217 deputies attending the 17th congress.
In practice, however, such elections are
always pre-arranged in one way or another
according to the CCP's tradition. If the 17th CCP
Congress could be said to be a little bit more
"democratic", it is because it will hold a
more-candidates-than-positions election for the
new Central Committee.
It is said the that
candidates will amount to 5% more than the number
of positions on the decision-making body to be
elected. But the members of the powerful Politburo
and Politburo Standing Committee will still be
voted in from the same number of candidates as
there are posts.
In fact, the long and
short lists for the new Central Committee,
Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee had
already been worked out by CCP leaders at their
informal gatherings in the summer resort of
Beidaihe last month.
Informed sources in
Beijing say at least four of the current eight
members of the Politburo Standing Committee are
very likely to stay in power. They are General
Secretary Hu Jintao, 65, Chairman of the Standing
Committee of the National People's Congress Wu
Bangguo, 66, Premier Wen Jiabao, 65, and Vice
President Zeng Qinghong, 68.
The sources
dismiss an earlier overseas media report saying Wu
Bangguo would step down. They say Wu, though
promoted to the power center from Shanghai, has
never been a key figure of the Shanghai clique.
Instead, he now is a close ally of Hu, both being
natives of Anhui province.
In fact, Wu is
the head of the party's leading group overseeing
all preparations for the 17th CCP Congress. Wen
heads a subgroup overseeing the drafting of the
keynote political report to be delivered by Hu,
while Zeng heads another subgroup overseeing
personnel affairs for the party meeting. Both Wen
and Zeng have to report to Wu on the progress in
their preparatory works for the 17th Party
Congress.
In the CCP's history, figures
active in preparing a party congress would always
remain politically active after the congress.
Given their active roles in preparations for the
congress, these three are most likely to continue
to work under Hu in the Politburo Standing
Committee. And Wu Bangguo is likely to remain the
No 2 leader in the party's hierarchy.
Two
of the other four Politburo Standing Committee
members are definitely to retire because of their
age. They are Wu Guanzheng, 69, who is secretary
of the party's Central Commission for Disciplinary
Inspection, the country's top anti-graft watchdog,
and Luo Gan, 72, who is secretary of the party's
Central Committee of Politics and Law overseeing
the country's law enforcement.
The
youngest member, Li Changchun, 63, who is the
party's propaganda czar, is also likely to step
down because of his health. It is said he was
diagnosed with early-phase of intestinal cancer
several years ago. Medical treatment over the past
years has brought the usually fatal disease under
control.
But the death of Huang Ju shocked
the CCP leadership. Huang, No 6 in the Politburo
Standing Committee and executive vice premier,
died of cancer on June 2, becoming a
highest-ranking Chinese official to die while in
office in 57 years. Apparently, the CCP leadership
does not want to see another Politburo Standing
Committee member possibly die in office. Thus Li
may have been persuaded to retire for a "good
rest".
One of the Beijing sources says Li
may have also done some things that were deemed
"politically incorrect", but he declines to
elaborate.
Despite his relatively young
age, the No 4 member of the current Politburo
Standing Committee, Jia Qinglin, 67, who is also
chairman of the Chinese People's Political
Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country's top
political advisory body, may be forced to step
down at the 17th Party Congress.
Jia, a
protege of former president Jiang Zemin, is said
to have been involved in corruption scandals. He
was deputy party chief and then party chief of
Fujian province in 1985-96, including the time of
the notorious Yuanhua smuggling case. Former
Yuanhua boss Lai Changxing, the smuggling kingpin
now seeking asylum in Canada, openly admitted he
knew Jia's wife well.
Whether Jia was
personally involved in the case remains unclear,
but he could be held accountable as the then No 1
leader of Fujian. Also, he is said to have
involved in irregularities in land
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