China, US delicately juggle
Taiwan By Jing-dong Yuan
MONTEREY, California - Taiwan's bid for
United Nations membership has again been rejected,
action that was hailed by Beijing as a
reaffirmation of the "one China" position and its
claim of sovereignty over the island. However, the
situation remains tenuous.
Taiwan's
attempts for UN membership began in 1993 when the
government of president Lee Teng-hui sought a seat
in the international body under the name of the
Republic of China (ROC). But this time the Chen
Shui-bian administration sought to enter
under the name "Taiwan", a
provocative move that has incurred strong
condemnation and even strong warnings from
Washington. Even the Nationalist (Kuomintang)
party, not to be outdone by Chen, called for its
own referendum to return to the UN under the name
"Republic of China".
These developments
constitute serious challenges to both mainland
China and the administration of US President
George W Bush. For Washington, these are issues of
commitments, priorities, and its relationship with
Beijing.
For obvious reasons, Bush
administration officials are concerned that Chen's
move could provoke China to resort to
"non-peaceful" means under its 2005 Anti-Secession
Law in reaction to what is seen as attempts toward
de jure independence. This in turn raises
questions about US commitments to the defense of
Taiwan under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
However, these commitments are to be
honored only if there is unequivocal and
unprovoked unilateral use of force against Taiwan
by mainland China, not a carte blancheto
Taipei regardless of what it does. Indeed, in
recent years, the Bush administration has on many
occasions stated that it is opposed to any
unilateral change of the status quo by either side
of the Taiwan Strait.
Within this context,
Bush administration officials have become
increasingly worried about Chen's apparent
attempts to change the status quo and issued
several warnings in recent months. US deputy
assistant secretary of state Thomas Christensen,
speaking at the US-Taiwan Business Council this
month, warned Taipei against "needlessly
provocative behavior" and expressed serious US
concerns over the issue of name change in an
upcoming referendum. While affirming US
commitments to and friendship with Taiwan, he also
emphasized that Washington would not "let Taipei
define our position".
That Washington is
so adamant and open on this issue is dictated by
its priorities elsewhere, namely the war on
terrorism and its quagmire in Iraq, and other
strategically more urgent problems such as Iran's
nuclear developments and the situation in the
Middle East. The US can hardly afford being
distracted by another crisis across the Taiwan
Strait. It is therefore annoyed by what it sees as
political posturing, unnecessary provocation, and
potentially harmful actions against US interests.
US reactions to the referendum issue are
also indicative of its changing relationship with
China. The Bush administration came into office
more than six years ago viewing China as a
strategic competitor and determined to strengthen
its alliances in Asia and support Taiwan in an
effort to contain the rise of China. The events of
September 11, 2001, changed that early assessment
and have given Washington a different set of
priorities. The administration has since redefined
its strategic interests and recognizes the need
for closer cooperation with Beijing.
The
Sino-US relationship has evolved into one
characterized as cooperative, constructive and
candid or, to quote President Bush, "complex".
Beijing and Washington cooperate on a whole range
of issues, from the North Korean and Iranian
nuclear challenges, to the environment and global
warming, to the "global war on terrorism". China
and the US have become ever more interdependent
economically, with bilateral trade surpassing
US$300 billion this year.
Both have come
to recognize the importance of handling the
delicate Taiwan issue. Washington seeks to
maintain the status quo so it can stay focused on
its "war on terrorism" and on combating the spread
of weapons of mass destruction. Beijing recognizes
the role that the US can play in reining in
Taiwanese independence even as it continues its
military preparation to deter and respond to such
a scenario.
But Beijing is facing a
serious challenge. It is quite clear that Chen
Shui-bian's referendum plan is largely driven by
Taiwan's election politics as much as by Chen's
own craving for personal legacy. It is also
obvious that despite serious warnings from both
Washington and Beijing, the referendum is most
likely going to take place. How Beijing should
react is a test for the mainland leadership's
acumen as well as resolve.
Handled well,
the impact of the pending crisis could be
absorbed, leaving maximum flexibility without
either losing face or losing tempers. This is
crucial in particular given the pending 2008
Summer Olympic Games and China's international
reputation as a rising power.
For Beijing,
there are three principles to keep in mind. The
first is that Chen's motive for holding the
referendum is to provoke. Overreaction hands Chen
the very prize he seeks. And while the 2005
Anti-Secession Law defines the overall parameter
of what is tolerable and what is not, Beijing
should leave itself open to an extremely flexible
interpretation.
Second, time is on the
mainland's side. The fact that Chen has sought all
kinds of tactics to push the edge of the envelope
concerning de jure independence demonstrates his
frustration over the futility of such attempts and
the fear that such independence is becoming
increasingly elusive for Taiwan. The mainland and
the island have become economically more
dependent, and many Taiwanese business people and
the public in general prefer the status quo to
uncertain and unpredictable change. Indeed,
cross-Strait trade continues to expand; the first
nine months of 2007 have already seen a 13%
increase over the same period last year, and total
two-way trade for 2007 is projected to reach
US$110 billion, with the balance heavily favoring
Taiwan. This is what worries Chen.
Finally, Beijing should be sanguine about
the US role. While Washington is opposed to any
unilateral change of the status quo and hence has
strongly criticized Chen's referendum move, it
does not share completely Beijing's vision for
unification. The US continues to offer arms sales
to Taiwan, with the most recently announced
possible deals worth more than $2.2 billion,
including P-3C Orion anti-submarine patrol
aircraft and SM-2 anti-aircraft missiles. There
are also reports of possible US sales of F-16s to
Taiwan.
Clearly, US interests remain a
Taiwan separated from the mainland. Herein lies
the limitation to what Beijing can expect of
Washington.
Dr Jing-dong Yuan is
director of the East Asia non-proliferation
program at the James Martin Center for
Non-proliferation Studies and associate professor
of international policy studies at the Monterey
Institute of International Studies.
(Copyright 2007 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
