China reshuffle sends message to Taiwan
By Fong Tak-ho
HONG KONG - In the run-up to the all-important 17th National Congress of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which is expected to endorse a new central
leadership headed by President Hu Jintao, Beijing has recently also reshuffled
the top brass of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) with younger officers
promoted to replace retired ones.
The new PLA leadership lineup marks the dominant role of Hu Jintao, in his
capacity as chairman of the Central Military
Commission (CMC), the de facto commander-in-chief of all military forces in the
country, in deciding on military personnel. Analysts also said that the new PLA
leadership's top priority is to focus on Taiwan-related affairs.
Following the announcements of major military personnel replacements, the
Congress, beginning on October 15, is also expected to elect a new CMC, along
with a new CCP central committee.
The CMC consists of the party general secretary, who is concurrently CMC
chairman, and three senior generals as vice chairmen, plus members, all of whom
serve in various positions ranging from defense minister and chief of general
staff to director of the General Political Department, head of the General
Logistics Department, and others posts such as the commanders of the air force,
navy and Second Artillery Force, China's missile corps.
It is certain that Hu will continue to be endorsed as chairman of the new CMC
and that he will be elected as party general secretary.
Two incumbent CMC vice chairmen, General Guo Boxiong and General Xu Caihou, are
likely to remain in their same posts in the new CMC. Another CMC vice chairman,
Defense Minister General Cao Guangchuan, is expected to retire because of his
age, 72. General Liang Guanglie, who recently stepped down as chief of general
staff, is tipped to succeed Cao to become CMC vice chairman and defense
minister.
General Li Jinai, who became director of the General Political Department in
September 2004 and a CMC member in November 2002, will continue to serve in the
same capacity. General Jing Zhiyuan, who has been commander of the Second
Artillery Force since January 2003 and a CMC member since September 2004, will
also serve another term in the CMC. Also to serve a second term will be General
Liao Xilong, who has been Director of the General Logistics Department and CMC
member since November 2002.
The post of chief of general staff left by General Liang Guanglie is filled by
Chen Bingde, who has previously been director of the General Armament
Department. The new director of the armament department is said to be General
Chang Wanchuan, who has been Commander of Shenyang Military Area Command since
December 2004.
Recently, the PLA has also promoted Xu Qiliang as Commander of the Air Force,
while General Wu Shengli was named new Commander of the Navy in August 2006.
At least five members of the new CMC lineup have Taiwan-affairs credentials:
both Chen Bingde and Liang Guanglie in the 1990s worked successively as
Commander of Nanjing Military Area Command, which covers and concentrates on
the Taiwan Strait.
Wu Shengli used to be the chief of staff and commander of a navy base in Fujian
province, facing Taiwan across the strait. Both Li Jinai and Jing Zhiyuan are
experts in missile deployment, which would be the opening salvo and a major
force in any potential attack against Taiwan.
Their promotion highlights Beijing’s growing concern with the situation on the
Taiwan Strait. Beijing has become increasingly unhappy with Taiwan President
Chen Shui-bian’s proposed referendum on the island’s UN membership bid, which
Beijing regards as a big step towards de facto independence. Beijing could use
its Anti-Secession Law to justify using force against Taiwan if the island
declares formal independence. Therefore the new military lineup sends a strong
political message.
Provided that the new CMC lineup is rubber-stamped by the 17th Party Congress,
the average age of the PLA's core leadership will be 63.5, which is more or
less the same as the current one, 63.3.
The PLA has made some minor efforts towards rejuvenation in recent years. The
average age of the CMC was 67.85 in 1997. In 1999, the then 57-year-old Hu
Jintao joined the CMC as a vice-chairman, and thus the average age dropped to
67.25. Provided that the potential successor of Hu be appointed to the CMC
within the coming five years, the average age of the CMC is expected to be
younger than it is now.
Coincidentally, three top brass of the expected new CMC lineup are natives of
the eastern coastal province of Shandong, also the home of many PLA generals
including three in the 1997 CMC lineup, Zhang Wannian, Chi Haotian and Wang
Ruilin.
Apart from this, the newly tipped PLA leadership lineup features generals from
various parts of the country. Hu Jintao is from the eastern province of Anhui;
Guo Boxiong is native of the mountainous northeastern province of Shanxi; Liang
Guanglie is from south-central Sichuan province; Xu Caihou from the
northeastern province of Liaoning; Chen Bingde hails from the eastern costal
province of Jiangsu; Liao Xilong is a native of Guizhou province in southwest
China; Chang Wanchuan is from cental China's Henan province; and Wu Shengli's
hometown is in the northern province of Hebei.
Some observers say that Hu has attempted to strike a geographical and factional
balance in the PLA with his new lineup of generals.
In November 1948, the communist troops were re-organized into five field armies
(the first field army, the second field army, the third field army, the fourth
field army and the Northern Chinese field army). Although this system now no
longer exists, some analysts believe its influence, a major source of divisive
factions within the PLA, remains. For instance, Chen Bingde is said to be
closely connected to the first field army-originated generals; Guo Boxiong,
Liao Xiling and Jing Zhiyuan with generals from the second field army; Wu
Shengli with the third army field, and Liang Guanglie is said to be influenced
by the fourth field army generals.
Fong Tak-ho is managing editor of the Chinese version of Asia Time
Online.
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