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China on Wednesday successfully launched its first lunar satellite probe as a
prelude to its own eventual walk on the moon and establishment of a lunar
colony.
China's first lunar satellite, Chang'e One, lifted off from a site in
Xichang in Sichuan province as the start of a program to land a space rover on
the moon in 2012 and astronauts by 2020.
China's bold moon gambit is part of a much broader space program that includes
a Mars mission and permanent space station. As the US space program reaches the
nadir of its once proud orbit, it's critical to ask whether China's reach for
the stars poses a strategic military threat.
For its part, China insists it comes to space in peace. This may be true.
Consider the moon. America once walked on its grand stage - and now has simply
walked away.
In contrast, China clearly understands that the moon, together with numerous
asteroids, boast a valuable array of precious metals and raw materials - from
gold and platinum to cobalt and nickel. Successful mining operations in space
would do much to alleviate growing raw material shortages and the pollution
associated with resource extraction.
More broadly, China also clearly understands that many of the conflicts here on
Earth now being fueled by over-population, environmental depredation, resource
depletion, economic failures and the threats of terrorism and nuclear war can
conceivably be neatly resolved by opening up human migration to the moon, space
stations and other solar bodies. For the world's most populous country, the
compelling prospect of migrating to the ultimate open spaces is no small
matter.
The biggest lunar prize in the shorter term, however, may well be realizing
fusion energy's potential. Unlike the false promise of nuclear power, fusion
energy would truly be "too cheap to meter". The key fusion ingredient now
coveted by many physicists is Helium 3 - an extremely rare isotope thought to
be abundant in the lunar regolith.
As the head of China's space program Ouyang Ziyuan has noted: "Each year, three
space shuttle missions could bring enough fuel for all human beings across the
world." He might have added that developing the energy potential of space would
be a death blow to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil cartel
as well as a magic bullet for global warming.
These peaceful promises of space exploration notwithstanding, there is also the
far more serious matter of space militarization. The best evidence of China's
hawkish intentions is its blasting out of the sky one of its own weather
satellites last January. This ASAT test could have only one purpose: developing
a capability to neutralize or destroy the complex web of satellites that make
up the eyes, ears, and brains of the American military.
There is also this worst-case scenario - China's weaponization of space. The
clear and present danger is that China's ambitious space program may simply be
a thinly veiled dual use military platform. In fact, each secretive Shenzhou
spacecraft is fully capable of leaving behind a eight foot by nine foot orbital
module containing a nuclear weapon. Over time, a string of such weapons would
hang like swords of Damocles ready to drop on American cities with virtually no
notice.
On this point, it is crucial to note that unlike conventional inter-continental
ballistic missiles launched from land or sea by powerful rockets, orbital
warheads can simply be "nudged" down with no tell tale boost phase infrared
flare. Already at the top of their trajectory, these avoid a slow ascent phase
and arrive on target quickly and unexpectedly. Consequently, they would be
virtually unstoppable by existing missile defense systems.
In light of these dangers, it is critical that all nations with a capability of
reaching for the stars factor in the China effect. At stake may be nothing less
than the strategic high ground.
Peter Navarro is a business professor at the University of
California-Irvine and author of Coming China Wars -
www.PeterNavarro.com. Greg Autryis a lecturer on business strategy and
entrepreneurship at UCI and working on a book about the Chinese space program.
(Copyright 2007 Peter Navarro.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say.
Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
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