US-China military ties warm with hotline
By Jing-dong Yuan
MONTEREY, California - United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' visit
to China this week, his first since assuming office in January, has achieved
some tangible results. However, for US-China military ties to develop,
Washington and Beijing will have to engage in further dialogue, dispel
misperceptions and develop strategies for mutual understanding and common
interests.
One of the most important achievements during Gates' visit was the announcement
of the establishment of a military hotline, although no specifics were provided
on when and how it will
operate. But this is certainly a clear demonstration from the two militaries
that they want to strengthen communication and to have a mechanism in place to
enhance crisis management.
For the United States, this is a major step forward. Washington has for years
sought the establishment of such a hotline, but Beijing has demurred, either
due to lack of experience in dealing with such an arrangement with a foreign
military or due to no interest by the Chinese military.
With China's growing military capabilities and the expansion of its activities
into the maritime and aerial space beyond its coastlines, the potential for
encounters between the two militaries increases. Over the years, a number of
incidents have occurred, with the 2001 mid-air collision of a US spy plane and
a Chinese fighter aircraft the most serious, setting back bilateral military
relations for years.
Gates' visit also serves to highlight the mutual interest in maintaining
stability in the Taiwan Strait, with the US commitment to the One-China policy
and opposition to any unilateral change to the status quo and Beijing's
entreaty that the Taiwan issue should remain the most important and sensitive
one in Sino-US relations.
Prior to Gates' visit, the Pentagon released a statement that likened the Chen
Shui-bian government's proposed referendum on membership of the United Nations
as a referendum on independence. Gates himself reportedly reassured Chinese
President Hu Jintao that the US government is "categorically" opposed to Taiwan
independence.
A third achievement relates to the Iran issue. Gates appealed to his hosts for
greater Chinese cooperation in curbing Teheran's nuclear program, arguing that
this serves China's interests in protecting stability in the Gulf and its
energy security. US officials suggested after the meetings that they were
"pleased with the quality of the discussion about Iran".
Indeed, while Beijing makes no commitment on any new sanctions on Iran, it did
call on Iran to heed rising international concerns over its nuclear program and
work with the international community to defuse the pending crisis through
dialogue and diplomatic means.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman at a regular news conference "demanded
that Iran positively respond and pay attention to international concerns and
calls", urging Teheran to "adopt a flexible attitude" regarding the resolution
of the impasse. The tone has been noticeably direct.
Finally, the US and Chinese militaries also agreed to conduct joint naval
exercises at an appropriate time, to promote exchanges of military students and
to open Chinese archives to help account for American soldiers still listed as
missing from the Korean War more than half a century ago.
However, Gates' visit also reveals the limitation of bilateral military ties.
There are still lingering suspicions and major differences. One is US concern
over the lack of military transparency in terms of defense spending, weapons
procurement, military modernization and strategic intent on the part of China.
There are questions about the exact amounts of China's defense budgets,
officially listed at US$45 billion, but generally perceived as much higher.
Nor did Gates get any satisfactory explanation of China's anti-satellite test
in January, which demonstrates to the US military the People's Liberation
Army's interest in developing asymmetrical capabilities in response to American
military superiority. Related to the potential competition in space
weaponization are also US concerns and speculations regarding Chinese hacking,
or cyber interference.
From Beijing's perspective, continuing US military sales to Taiwan remain a
serious issue as they are seen as undermining Chinese interests in national
unity and sovereignty. What concerns China is the wrong message that could be
conveyed to pro-independence elements in Taiwan.
China is also suspicious of US strategic intentions in the region. Taiwan
aside, Beijing sees Washington's efforts in strengthening its military
alliances, deploying missile defense systems and an emerging arch of
encirclement from the northeast all the way to Central Asia, as unstated but
clearly hedging strategies against China.
Sino-US military relations have experienced ups and downs since the mid-1980s
and have more or less reflected the overall political relationship between the
countries. In this context, the countries should congratulate themselves on
what they have been able to achieve during Gates' visit, but should remain
sanguine that there is still much to work on.
Dr Jing-dong Yuan is director of the East Asia Non-proliferation Program
at the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies and an associate
professor of International Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies.
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