For Sino-US ties, cautious progress
By Jing-dong Yuan
MONTEREY, California - China-United States relations have continued on a
positive trajectory for much of 2007. Several of the institutionalized dialogue
processes address major emerging issues that could derail bilateral ties as
much as they aim to set long-term, strategic and comprehensive objectives for
the countries. Presidents George W Bush and Hu Jintao met again in September
during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting and have kept on
regular communication to exchange views on issues of mutual interests.
The principal framework of Sino-US relations has been established over the past
two years and it now constitutes the five components: summit meetings between
the heads of states,
either during official visits or on the sideline of major international
meetings; the Senior Dialogue that focuses on political, security and strategic
areas; the Strategic Economic Dialogue, which deals with long-term bilateral
economic interests but which also increasingly pays attention to major
international and regional economic trends and developments; the Defense
Consultative Talks, which were initiated during the Bill Clinton
administration; and the US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, the
longest of the bilateral arrangements.
In addition to these key components of the institutionalized US-China dialogue
processes, there have also been increasing bilateral exchange visits and
regular consultation between high-ranking officials from the two countries. All
of these have helped to enhance mutual understanding, dispel misperceptions or
misunderstandings, and strengthened functional cooperation on issues ranging
from anti-terrorism, denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, to regional
stability and energy security. A recent poll of the US and Chinese publics has
yielded largely positive and favorable views of each other, even as concerns
and distrust continue.
Several developments in 2007 deserve particular note. The first and perhaps the
year's most noticeable development or progress in bilateral relations is
Washington and Beijing's growing common interest in the stability of the Taiwan
Strait and their shared concerns over and strongly expressed opposition to
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's plan for a referendum on the island's bid
for United Nations membership under the name of Taiwan. While the Chinese
government on numerous occasions issued the perfunctory - albeit no less
forceful and unequivocal - warnings against Chen's attempt at de jure
independence, what has grabbed the headlines - in Taiwan as well as elsewhere -
is how Washington has responded to the referendum plan.
The official US position remains that it does not support Taiwan independence
and opposes any unilateral acts aimed at changing the current status quo; and
high-ranking US officials, from Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte,
deputy national security advisor and senior Asian director, to Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State Thomas Christensen, and to the chairman of American
Institute in Taiwan, all expressed deep concerns over this potentially
dangerous development and openly voiced opposition to such an action. Indeed,
from perhaps the most pro-Taiwan administration since Washington severed
official ties with Taipei in 1979, the George W Bush administration has become
the most vocal critic of the Chen Shui-bian government.
Second, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates' visit to China in October and the
agreement on establishing the US-China military hotline represents another
major step forward in bilateral political and security relations. For years,
Washington has sought to introduce mechanisms that could facilitate better
military-to-military communication, especially during periods of crisis and
tension, to reduce the potential for military conflicts, as well as to enhance
mutual trust. In addition, the Defense Consultative Talks, and visits by top
military brass of the two countries further consolidate the
military-to-military ties. The US side in particular noted with some
satisfaction the level of reciprocity that the Chinese side has been able to
provide, for instance, during the visit by Admiral Mike Mullen, then the chief
of US naval operations and now chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Third, Washington and Beijing continue cooperation on seeking to resolve the
North Korean nuclear issue. The February 13 joint declaration of the six-party
talks has been followed by Pyongyang taking the necessary steps to begin the
denuclearization process, beginning with the disablement and full declaration
of its entire nuclear weapons program by year's end. Clearly, this latest
development to no small measure can be attributed to the US-China cooperation
and bilateral efforts in ironing out differences to achieve the common goals.
However, while both Washington and Beijing remain satisfied with and confident
in the overall health of bilateral relations and areas for future cooperation,
they both also have to address a number of contentious and emerging issues.
The growing Sino-US economic interdependence has brought tremendous benefits
for both countries but has also generated increasing friction over issues such
as trade balances, currency valuation, intellectual property rights, government
subsidies, market access, among others. In recent months, product safety from
toys to pet food has become the most contentious issue with recalls dominating
the headlines and gravely undermining US consumers' confidence in merchandise
with the label "Made in China".
The issue has become so heated that some US legislators started to place blame
on Chinese manufacturers and even threatened to boycott Chinese-made products.
Beijing has responded by introducing more stringent internal safety checks and
executed the former top food and drug administrator. At the same time, the
Chinese government is warning against politicizing the issue and pointing out
that defects in US product designs are also accountable for the several fatal
incidents that have occurred.
Likewise, the rising US trade deficit, the slow pace with which the exchange
rate of the yuan against the dollar is moving (even though the value of yuan
has risen more than 12% since mid-2005), the perceived and real barriers to
market access, and the continuing piracy and violation of intellectual property
rights, remain unresolved and pose the most serious threat to a healthy and
stable bilateral relationship, in at least two important ways.
One, with the US presidential elections heated up, candidates from both parties
could be tempted to pander voters by blaming China for the economic ills in the
US. And two, the long-term impacts of such impression and perhaps even
retaliation (as some in US Congress would like to do) could only foster
protectionism and economic nationalism in both countries, resulting in
detrimental consequences for both countries.
Strong mutual suspicions remain between the two countries even as Washington
and Beijing cooperate on a wide range of international and regional issues. For
instance, China and the US do not see eye-to-eye on developments in Darfur,
Sudan, Myanmar and the Iranian nuclear issue. Some of the differences may stem
from divergent interests and perspectives, others as a result of variation on
tactics and approaches. Beijing emphasizes the principle of non-interference,
supports international efforts to defuse the crises in Myanmar and Sudan
through working with Yangon and Khartoum, and opposes the arbitrary use of
sanctions.
On Iran, China's interest in securing energy supplies and its suspicion of US
intentions have led Beijing to only reluctantly go along with the two UN
Security Council sanctions but otherwise to favor diplomacy and support the
role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in addressing the issue. The
latest report of the National Intelligence Estimate for all intents and
purposes could only strengthen Chinese argument against the introduction and
adoption of additional sanctions on Iran.
Washington, understandably, is at best not pleased with Beijing's unwillingness
to bear greater responsibility as an important stakeholder in the international
system, and at worst, could perceive its actions as deliberate attempts to
undermine US interests. Washington is especially concerned with regard to
China's growing economic ties with Iran and the political cover that such ties
provide to Teheran, and is clearly annoyed by the recent contract to develop
the Yadavaran oil field signed by the Chinese National Petroleum and Chemical
Corporation. Indeed, Negroponte openly encouraged Beijing to take certain
actions, "including reconsidering investments".
While Gates' October visit and the agreement on the military hotline are
encouraging, Washington and Beijing remain wary of each other's intentions and
activities. The US continues to raise issues on Chinese defense spending,
military transparency and major weapons procurement. The latest spat on
Beijing's denial of US warships' calls at Chinese ports reveals the fragility
of the bilateral military ties, as much as it raises the question among US
military leaders and policy makers alike about the opaqueness of the Chinese
decision-making process and the apparent disarray of mixed signals.
On the other hand, Beijing is upset by the insensitivity with which Washington
handles issues such as the Dalai Lama and military sales to Taiwan. For the
Chinese leadership, Sino-US cooperation and a stable relationship must be based
and built on mutual respect, especially toward issues with which the other side
is most concerned. In this regard, US actions of necessity force China to
respond in ways that could be further interpreted by Washington as unwelcome
and even unfriendly, which cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship.
Fortunately, the Sino-US relationship has matured enough that the overall
framework remains sound and solidly anchored in their shared common interests
in promoting a stable world and regional security, in combating global
terrorism, and in preserving and promoting the international system. What is
most important is that the channels of communication that have been established
over the years have served as the cushion to withstand the setbacks and
provided the forums for both countries to engage in frank and constructive
dialogues. Both have shown sufficient foresight in refraining from embroiling
in tit-for-tat retaliations but rather, in looking for ways that could further
their mutual interests.
The recently concluded 18th US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade
meeting, the third Strategic Economic Dialogue, and the ninth Defense
Consultative Talks have not been detracted by the problems and contentious
issues. On the contrary, the two sides have been able to seize the
opportunities to address some of the issues, reached important accords on some,
and agree to continue discussion on yet others.
On product safety, market access, especially in the financial and service
sectors, US high-tech trade transfers to China, and long-term cooperation on
environment and energy security, the two sides have achieved noticeable
results. The two militaries have agreed to move beyond the USS Kitty Hawk visit
episode and strive for further expansion of bilateral exchanges, including the
initiation of exchanges on strategic nuclear issues during the latest annual
defense talks.
Generally, 2007 was a year of important progress in Sino-US relations but also
revealed major schisms between the two. New challenges lie ahead and will test
the resilience of the bilateral relationship in the next 12 months. However,
over the longer term, the unanswered question will always be if the US will
accept and can accommodate China's rise as a major in the world and whether and
to what extent China will accept the norms and rules of the existing
international order and integrate itself into the international society.
Dr Jing-dong Yuan is director of East Asia Nonproliferation Program at
the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and an Associate Professor
of International Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
