In Bhutan, China and India
collide By Mohan Balaji
As the world's newest democracy, the
Buddhist Kingdom of Bhutan has won praise around
the world. Its recent transformation - from a
century of monarchy to a multi-party democracy -
has all the trappings of cinema: an enlightened
king steps aside for his dashing, Oxford-educated
son who represents a future of peace and
prosperity.
But all's not entirely well in
Shangri-la. Bhutan, sandwiched between two Asian
giants, China and India, is increasingly embroiled
in other nations' realpolitik and has been recently
subjected to military
incursions that are reverberating around the
region. Despite the dazzle of democracy, the
often-cited "gross national happiness" of bucolic
Bhutan is truly at stake.
Delhi and
Beijing are watching the kingdom intensely, and
recent moves suggest that Bhutan may become either
a strategic pawn or a malleable "buffer" zone
between the two expanding powers.
This
month, the Wall Street Journal wrote that King
Jigme Singye Wangchuk, the "Dragon King" who
ascended the throne in 1972 at the age of 16,
"deserves to go down in history as his country's
George Washington, John Adams and Thomas
Jefferson".
In 1998, Wangchuk voluntarily
reduced his powers and declared that Bhutan would
become a constitutional monarchy. He ordered legal
experts to study constitutions of all the world's
great democracies and the final version, which was
mailed to every home in the country, begins with
"We the people". In December 2006, he abdicated
and a year later the first general elections were
held in the country's 20 dzongkhag
(districts). Elections for the lower house of
Parliament commence next month, and in the
foreseeable future the monarch will become a
ceremonial head of state.
The outcome of
the elections will impact India and China, both of
which have strategic footholds in the landlocked
Himalayan kingdom. Bhutan does not have diplomatic
relations with China, the United States, Russia,
the United Kingdom or France. This is possibly
done so Bhutan is not seen as an enemy to China,
these nations all being members of the United
Nations Security Council.
Informal contact
with the US is made through the American Embassy
in New Delhi. As Bhutan is close to India's
restive northeastern states, any sort of negative
development in the Himalayan kingdom is considered
critical to India's strategic interest.
India's relationship with Bhutan is based
on the Perpetual Peace and Friendship agreement
signed in 1949. The pact was tested when Bhutan,
under Indian pressure, launched "Operation All
Clear" to flush out Indian militants operating
inside Bhutan on December 15, 2003. The Bhutanese
army, aided by Indian forces, completed the
operation in January 2004.
There is a fear
of China in Bhutan. There are unresolved border
disputes going back centuries and the issue was
only addressed in Beijing in 1984. Bhutan has
traditional trade relations with Tibet, but Bhutan
closed its northern borders with China after an
influx of Tibetan refugees in 1960. With that the
age-old cross-border trade came to a halt and
there have been no official trade or business
relations with China ever since.
In 1998,
Bhutan and China signed an Agreement to Maintain
Peace and Tranquillity on the Bhutan-China border,
marking the first and only Sino-Bhutanese peace
agreement to this day.
In recent months,
Bhutan's relations with it powerful neighbors have
had a twist. Chinese forces are alleged to have
intruded several times into Bhutanese territory at
the tri-junction with India. Over the past six
months, the Chinese have increasingly made inroads
in the strategically important area. The
incursions into Bhutan are precariously close to
India's "chicken's neck" - the vulnerable Siliguri
Corridor which links the northeast passage.
At the moment, Indian military strength is
depleted in its eastern region as one of the
divisions normally based in the hills of West
Bengal is currently deployed in Kashmir. The other
division, located distantly at Binaguri, would be
ineffective if the Chinese sliced through Bhutan
to sever the Siliguri "neck".
Although the
ruling United Progressive Alliance government
government in India has publicly dismissed these
intrusions as "nothing serious", experts view
these "aggressive" Chinese moves as a deliberate
strategy to put pressure on India and strengthen
China's claims on disputed areas along the "Line
of Actual Control". The Indian army has been
alarmed at the increasing Chinese forays into
Bhutan, which are also close to the strategic
Chumbi Valley - another vital junction between
India, Bhutan and China.
Trouble is
mounting on China's border with Bhutan. The
intrusions of Chinese forces, analysts say, has
more to do with India than Bhutan. The official
statement of Indian army chief General Deepak
Kapoor is that Chinese forays into Bhutan are a
"matter between the two countries". But, in
contradiction, the Indian army recently moved
6,000 troops to the Sino-Indian-Bhutanese junction
from the troubled states of Jammu and Kashmir.
In November 2007, Chinese forces
demolished several unmanned Indian forward posts
near two military bunkers in the border region of
Bhutan's Dolam Valley. This has drastically
distorted the Sino-Bhutanese border at Sikkim and
puts Chinese forces only a few kilometers from
North Bengal's Siliguri Corridor. China has always
laid claim to Dolam and there is rampant suspicion
that it is now extending its claim. So far, India
has treaded softly and has been tight-lipped for
political and diplomatic reasons.
The
Dolam Valley incident has exacerbated fear in
Bhutan. The general feeling is the more Bhutan
proximates itself with India the more it faces
trouble from China. The newly elected government,
from February, will be hard-pressed to remain
equally distance from both the countries.
There is a strong feeling in Thimphu that
Bhutan is becoming a buffer state. The outcome of
the elections will likely determine the future of
the relationship between India, China and Bhutan.
It is believed that China's strategy is to drag
India more and more into a Bhutanese gambit and
benefit by pinning more Indian troops into border
areas. Bhutan stands a great chance of becoming a
tiny pawn in a big game between the two Asian
giants. Mohan Balaji is a print and
broadcast journalist in India.
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