All bets off on Taiwan's
presidential race By Fong
Tak-ho
HONG KONG - Taiwan's opposition
Kuomintang (KMT) party won a landslide victory at
the January 12 legislative elections. But, in a
little more than two months, an even more crucial
challenge is awaiting: the presidential elections
on March 22. Despite growing optimism sparked by
the sweeping victory, it is still too soon to
conclude that KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou will
undoubtedly grab the top post.
There are
reasons for the KMT, the flagship party of the
so-called "pan-blue" camp opposed to Taiwan's
independence, to be
optimistic. The KMT won 81
out of the 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan or
Parliament, compared to 27 for the ruling
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP,
standard-bearer of the pro-independence
"pan-green" camp, has suffered the worst defeat in
elections since its foundation in 1986.
Nevertheless, when taking a closer look at the
election results, pundits caution that the KMT
victory should not be overestimated.
In
the just-concluded legislative elections, 36.9% of
the voters cast their ballots for the DPP.
Compared to the 35.7% support rate the DPP enjoyed
in the 2004 legislative elections, the pan-green
flagship has in fact become even more popular,
despite the minimal margin. Under the new election
system adopted in the just-concluded legislative
elections, only one candidate can win in each
constituency. It turned out that a substantial
number of the DPP candidates were defeated by a
thin margin. This means the voting method has
amplified the magnitude of the KMT's victory.
On the other hand, the KMT, which managed
to garner 51.2% votes, is far from maximizing its
support. In the 1996 presidential election, the
KMT gained 54% of the total votes; in the 2000
president election, the "pan-blue" camp won 59.9%
votes altogether. A split in the party, however,
eventually landed the DPP's Chen Shui-bian the
presidency.
Analysts contended that voters
definitely were not happy with the performance of
the DPP administration, yet they held grudges
against the KMT as well for the endless power
struggles in the legislature that have prevented
anything significant or fruitful being
accomplished over past four years.
In
addition, Taiwanese citizens still have a vivid
memory of how a dramatic event can turn things
around. On March 19, 2004, the eve of the
presidential election, President Chen Shui-bian
and Vice President Annette Lu were shot during a
campaign parade in Tainan. The episode resulted in
a DPP triumph despite many polls before the
election indicating the KMT enjoyed a minor lead.
Apart from this "assassination" claim, the
DPP in the past was also good at exposing
corruption scandals in the run-up to voting,
despite that such claims were always controversial
and sometimes proved wrong.
Last year, the
DPP fiercely attacked the KMT's presidential
candidate Ma Ying-jeou for "embezzling" special
funds for public service, which Ma and many others
senior officials saw as a part of their
legitimized income. The court eventually acquitted
Ma of the charges, but Ma's defense was criticized
as "inconsistent".
For example, Ma
reportedly insisted he used all the funds for
public service and charity but later admitted he
kept some of them for his own use, seeing them as
part of his salary. The admission cast doubts on
his honesty and ability for crisis management.
This was not the only incident that gave Ma's
opponents a chance to question his leadership
qualities. In September 2001, a typhoon caused
widespread flooding in Taipei, when Ma was mayor
of the capital city. When Chen Shui-bian visited
the emergency command center, it was reported that
Ma "was even not there".
Still, it must
not be overlooked that the political atmosphere is
now greatly in favor of Ma. At a time when a spate
of corruption scandals surround Chen Shui-bian,
many voters in Taiwan believe Ma is clean,
attributing the belief to his efforts to crack
down corruption as minister of justice in the
1990s. Besides, Ma is seen as a mild leader who is
opposed to radical political campaigns, and this
is a benefit after Chen's controversial campaign
to denounce the late Taiwanese leader Chiang
Kai-shek. The campaign to denounce Chiang is seen
by many as an insult to millions of mainlanders
who fled to Taiwan with Chiang, after the KMT lost
a civil war on the mainland to the communists in
1949, and have lived there ever since.
On
the other hand, Frank Hsieh, the DPP candidate for
the March presidential race, is definitely
fighting an uphill battle. With the departure of
Chen Shui-bian as chairman of the DPP after his
humiliating defeat last weekend, it is now
show-time for Hsieh. His political career will
come to an end if he fails. By declaring he will
retire from Taiwan's politics should he lose,
Frank Hsieh has staked everything on a single
throw.
As suggested by the legislative
elections, the "pan-blue" camp now enjoys a lead
of 1.5 million or 15% more votes than the DPP,
which means the "pan-green" camp must persuade
about 800,000 or 8% of the voters to change their
mind if they are to win the March election.
Theoretically, this is not impossible, but when
taking into account the very limited time
available, the mission is arguably extremely
unlikely.
Now, two chances will increase
the opportunity for Hsieh to accomplish his
difficult task: the arrangement for the Lunar New
Year cross-strait chartered flights and the battle
against inflation.
For political reasons,
there are no direct flights between Taiwan and
mainland China. During the Lunar New Year,
however, authorities in Taipei and Beijing have in
the past arranged cross-strait direct flights
during the peak traffic season. In the past few
years, the arrangement has been criticized as not
flexible enough and the period too short.
This time, under the pressure of Hsieh,
the DPP administration will probably allow the
chartered flights to be arranged at more frequent
intervals, most likely three flights during a
week, and for an extended time.
Hsieh's
campaign team will also try to persuade the DPP to
adopt price controls over skyrocketing oil costs
and escalating inflation. The DPP wants to
demonstrate that it cares about the livelihoods of
grassroots citizens, in contrast to Ma's policies
of market economics.
Another card Hsieh
will play is the importance of checks and
balances. With the "pan-blue" camp now holding
three quarters of the legislative seats, they can
easily recall the president or amend the
constitution as they wish. However, this can also
easily backfire because the legislature and the
executive branch of the government have already
been locked in a four-year impasse and many voters
want the political struggle to give way for
economic development. To lobby for more support,
Hsieh has already promised that he will seek
majority support for the premier candidate in the
legislature, although this is not constitutionally
required.
Hsieh is a veteran who has a
track record of attracting last-minute support
from voters. In 1998, he won the Kaohsiung mayoral
election by a very thin margin after an
audio-tape, which was later proven to be fake,
surfaced about a "sex scandal" involving his KMT
competitor. Kaohsiung citizens held such high
regard for his performance that he easily earned a
second term as mayor in 2002.
In 2006, he
was called by his party to fight a difficult
battle in the mayoral election in Taipei, a
hot-bed of "pan-blue" support. Hsieh managed to
win 40% of the votes, a comparatively "good
result" which surprised many analysts. In the
latest legislative elections, all eight seats from
Taipei went into the KMT's pocket.
Within
the "pan-green" camp, Hsieh is considered a
heavyweight. He also represents their last hope.
As one of the founders of the DPP, it was Hsieh
who coined the name of the party and co-drafted
its constitution in 1986. Hsieh is controversial,
however, for his religious leanings towards a cult
leader who was convicted of fraud.
Furthermore, during Hsieh's tenure as
mayor, Kaohsiung city was plagued by corruption,
specifically in city council elections and a
railway construction project. Although none of
these scandals was directly linked to Hsieh, his
opponents continue to question his determination
to stamp out corruption.
Now, both the
"pan-blue" and "pan-green" camps are looking for
endorsement from an influential moderate figure
who can appeal to the undecided voters: former
Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui. Although Lee is
definitely influential, he is arguably not so
moderate, given his firm pro-independence stance.
As it stands, many uncertainties still
hang over Taiwan's presidential election in march.
The only thing for certain is that the outcome
will be an all-important event in the political
theatre of Greater China.
Fong
Tak-ho is managing editor of the Chinese
version of Asia Times Online.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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