HONG
KONG - As the Year of the Pig ends in a winter of
discontent for China, fierce snowstorms have
caused an energy crisis across the country and
brought transport chaos at the same time that
millions of migrant workers are preparing to make
their annual pilgrimage home.
Delays and
shutdowns on the nation’s roads and rail lines
have affected food supplies and will likely push
inflation, which reached an 11-year high of 6.9%
in November, even higher. And, in one of those
cruel jokes of fate, pork prices are leading the
way.
The year has also ended with
increasingly ominous signs of a US recession,
which promises to test the theory of some economists
that
the juggernaut of the Chinese economy has
decoupled from its US counterpart and can weather
any American storm. Those economic optimists may
have jumped the gun.
In other words, things look
bad, real bad, all over. But not to worry: the
Year of the Rat officially begins on February 7,
and all this could change for the better. A new
year on the Chinese calendar always offers new
hope, but the Rat is especially imbued with this
quality of renewal because it is the first of the
12 animal signs in the Chinese zodiac. The Pig
finished the cycle in the last
year, and now it is time to start over with fresh
hopes, dreams and resolutions.
In Hong
Kong, for example, the Walt Disney Co hopes that
the Rat's promise of a fresh start will rub off on
other rodents - namely, Mickey Mouse - and turn
the company's fortunes around after Hong Kong
Disneyland's abysmal performance in the city since
its opening in 2005. The feng shui has been
so bad in Mickey's Hong Kong house that Disney
executives here refuse to even talk about
attendance figures anymore. They hope to find
their voice again under the influence of the Rat.
Likewise, on the mainland, Premier Wen
Jiabao, who oversees the economy, is hoping to see
inflation drop, production rise and the weather
shine on the Summer Olympic Games to be hosted in
Beijing. So far, no Chinese fortune-teller has had
the guts to predict anything but a stellar Olympic
performance for the country, no matter what the
stars, sun and moon may have to say.
As
far as the Olympics go, the central government
controls all aspects of the universe; and the Year
of the Rat must, by edict, be auspicious because
it is also the Year of the Olympics, Beijing's
nervous debut on the 21st-century international
stage. Official propaganda aside, however, the Rat
does offer rewards for people and countries that
take leadership roles.
While for
Westerners rats are vile creatures associated with
sewers and disease, the Chinese believe they have
many positive attributes: they are clever and
agile in the way they dart to snatch food and
avoid enemies, models of sociability because they
move in packs and icons of family unity for their
concern for the brood. In addition, rats are
curious and adaptable. In other words, this
Western outcast has earned a certain status in the
East. Indeed, rats can be pioneers and leaders.
Famous people born under this sign include
Shakespeare, Mozart, Prince Charles and Eminem.
Rats are recognized for their hard work, charisma
and charm. That's why romances tend to abound
during a Rat year.
Behind that charisma
and charm, however, rats can be aggressive,
quick-tempered and downright greedy and
controlling. Their favorite professions range from
espionage to psychiatry to politics to law, and
the evil temptations of gambling, alcohol and
drugs hang over their sign.
In the US,
supporters of Barack Obama, an African-American
senator who is vying for the Democratic Party's
presidential nomination at the height of the
presidential primary season, may take heart in the
fact that their candidate's theme of change is
also this year's zodiac theme. One imagines that
Obama is hoping the Rat's positive energy for
change is behind him.
As a woman, however,
Obama's rival for the Democratic nomination,
Hillary Rodham Clinton, also claims to be a change
agent, despite her ties to the past - namely her
husband, former two-term president Bill Clinton,
whose infamous libido could play a role in the
passion and romance that is associated with Rat
years. We'll see. So far, the former president's
loyalty to his wife has been unflinching and all
of his passion directed in attacks on Obama. Win
or lose, then, the Year of the Rat could be good
for Clinton connubiality - unless, of course, they
lose and their conjugal renewal proves to be more
about regaining the presidency than about love and
marriage.
As for the Democrats' rival
party, the Republicans, the race for the
nomination now boils down to John McCain or Mitt
Romney, but in the general election the Rat says
no to both. After the eight-year Republican
presidency of George W Bush - which has been
defined by the fiasco of the invasion of Iraq, the
failed war on terror and a now looming recession -
the Rat's call for a change of party in the White
House seems irresistible. Americans of all shapes,
sizes, colors and creeds are likely to respond.
When predicting how the coming year will
unfold, soothsayers consider not only the animal
sign but also the five earthly elements that
rotate through the Chinese astrological system:
metal, wood, water, fire and earth. This year's
Rat is represented by earth sitting on top of
water. The earth represents stability, but since
it is sitting on water that stability is weak and
the two elements are in conflict. So watch out:
the foundation of this next year is shaky,
creating a degree of unpredictability. This could
mean anything from a bold surprise in the US
presidential election to a global economic
meltdown.
If things more or less balance
out, however, look for favorable outcomes in
industries that are compatible with water, this
year's dominant element. Earth and metal
industries, then, should do well. These include
property, mining, hotels, insurance, machinery,
computers and health care. Wood industries - such
as forestry, paper, furniture and textiles -
should also cash in. But, since the earth is
floating on water, the Earth's influence is
considered weak, as could be profits in
earth-related industries.
The bad news
this year is for industries associated with water
and fire. As fire is the symbol of financial
markets, this will be a year of cooling down - and
let's hope not melting down - in the investment
world after the sizzling growth of 2006-2007.
Indeed, the final stock-market jolts of the Year
of the Pig have already prepared us for a
downturn. Other fire industries that could be hurt
include electricity, entertainment and airlines.
Because of their association with water, shipping,
beverage and communication companies are also
facing tough times.
So, while the Year of
the Rat promises renewal, in some quarters it may
deliver disappointment. But there is one thing we
can all count on: the Olympics will be a
resounding success. After all, the ultimate
Chinese fortune-teller, the central government,
has decreed it so.
Kent Ewing is
a teacher and writer at Hong Kong International
School. He can be reached at
kewing@hkis.edu.hk.
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year, and now it is time to start over with fresh
hopes, dreams and resolutions. 
