China card still wild in White
House race By Jing-dong Yuan
MONTEREY, California - During the 1992
presidential campaign in the United States,
Democratic candidate Bill Clinton accused George H
W Bush of "kowtowing to butchers" from Baghdad to
Beijing and vowed to put human rights at the top
of his agenda with China. Eight years later,
Republican candidate George W Bush dismissed
president Clinton's engagement policy toward China
and termed the latter as a strategic competitor of
the US.
Compared to 1992 and 2000, the
2008 presidential primaries have left China more
or less unscathed, so far. The candidates have
focused on issues such as the Iraq war, health
care, the housing slump and the impending economic
recession, among others. But this may change this
summer once both parties have selected their
presidential nominees.
By far the most
serious concern for the two
Democratic
candidates, Senators Hillary Clinton
and Barack Obama, is the impact of China's growing
economy on the US. In a recent speech at George
Washington University, Clinton accused China of
not playing by the rules in the global
marketplace, exporting tainted food and unsafe
toys to America, and manipulating currency. Both
Clinton and Obama were among the Senate sponsors
of a bill last year that threatens punitive duties
on Chinese goods to force Beijing to revaluate the
yuan.
Senator John McCain, the Republican
presidential nominee, advocates a policy of
"hedging" against China's growing global and
regional influence by strengthening US alliances
and maintaining its military presence in East
Asia. McCain challenges Beijing to be more
transparent about its military buildup and pledges
to push China on human right issues. Obama views
China as "neither our enemy nor our friend" and
recognizes that China offers both challenges and
opportunities.
Sino-US relations will
reach a critical juncture in 2008. The
administration of President Hu Jintao and Prime
Minister Wen Jiabao is entering its second term
and a new US president will be elected in
November. While the campaign rhetoric gives some
indication of what the candidates' policy
priorities are, the real impact of the US
presidential elections on the bilateral
relationship may turn out to be different from
what campaign statements suggest.
On the
security front, Washington is obviously watching
China's growing military power closely. The
People's Liberation Army has received another
double-digit increase in defense budget to US$59
billion, a 17.6% rise over last year. The
just-released Department of Defense annual report
on the Chinese military points to the latter's
growing ambitions in space as a potential threat
to US security. Recent reports draw attention to
China's growing maritime power and naval buildup.
The Pentagon report decries lack of transparency
on China's part.
Whether or not China
constitutes a serious threat to US security
remains unresolved. The George W Bush
administration has been making efforts in engaging
China on military matters. High-level visits and
defense consultation have become more frequent and
regularized. The two countries have just agreed to
set up a military hotline and plans for joint
exercises. Meanwhile, Washington continues its
hedging strategy by strengthening ties with its
allies and friends in the region.
Economic
issues will likely be emphasized in presidential
debates in the final months before the November
vote. The Clinton-Obama spat on the North American
Free Trade Agreement would suggest that whomever
the Democratic presidential nominee is, she or he
will blame China for some of the economic ills
that America is suffering: skyrocketing trade
deficits and loss of manufacturing jobs; currency
manipulation; violation of intellectual property
rights; safety of China-made goods. This will
appeal to the party's labor and union bases. The
Bush administration will likely be criticized for
its failure to act tough on China.
But
reality and common sense, not to mention shared
interests, will most likely trump the campaign
rhetoric when the new US president moves into the
White House. The reasons are simple: Washington
stands to hurt itself as much as, or more, than it
hurts Beijing because the relationship is complex,
interdependent and important.
The
complexity arises because Washington and Beijing
have major differences on some issues but share
common interests in others. The latter includes
resolution to the North Korean and Iranian nuclear
issues, cooperation in the "war on terror", and
combating the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction. China is also becoming increasingly
important - and increasingly cooperative - in
addressing other important issues ranging from
climate change to humanitarian intervention in
Darfur, Sudan.
The relationship is also
interdependent. China's economic growth benefits
from and relies on the US market, capital and
technologies. American consumers, on the other
hand, have benefited from low-priced Chinese goods
as well as China's holding of US Treasury bills
that keep interest rates low. Protectionism,
however, will not get the lost manufacturing jobs
back. Instead, Washington should work on demanding
fair treatment from Beijing on market access,
protection of intellectual property, and measures
that leverage the US's comparative advantage.
Sino-US relations are perhaps the most
important bilateral ties in the world today. One
is a fast-rising power; the other the reigning
superpower. Managing such a relationship has never
been easy, but its successful management is
critical for global peace and security. For China,
the next five years will continue to focus on
economic development and equality; demographic
change and environment; efficient governance;
managing the Taiwan issue; and a more active
international role. Beijing may disapprove of some
of Washington's policies, but it has no intention
of challenging America's dominant position.
The US presidential elections offer new
opportunities to debate China policy and chart a
new course for bilateral relations. Rhetoric
notwithstanding - and it could be harsh on China -
one would hope that it will remain as such while
realities and sound judgment carry the day and
guide the new administration in formulating and
executing its China policy.
Dr Jing-dong
Yuan is director of East Asia
Non-proliferation Program at the James Martin
Center for Non-proliferation Studies, and an
associate professor of International Policy
Studies at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies.
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