SPEAKING
FREELY China's Pacific strategy
unfurled By Zhang Guihong
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
Two years ago, when
addressing the opening of the first Ministerial
Conference of the China-Pacific Island Countries
Economic Development and Cooperation Forum,
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said, "To foster
friendship and cooperation with the Pacific island
countries is not a diplomatic expedience. Rather,
it is a strategic decision."
He outlined
China's Pacific policy, saying, "China and the
Pacific island countries, both being developing
countries in the Asia Pacific region, have common
interests and meet common
challenges. China is
committed to promoting peace and development
through cooperation, and will continue to
strengthen its friendship and cooperation with the
Pacific island countries on the basis of the 'Five
Principles of Peaceful Coexistence'. The forum
will set a new model for South-South cooperation."
To have a better understanding and
in-depth study of China's Pacific policy, three
questions have to be answered.
Question 1: Why the Pacific is
important for China? The Pacific Island region
(here excluding Australia and New Zealand) covers
20 million square miles of ocean and 117,000
square miles of land area. The area has population
of nearly 8 million among the 14 independent
states. The total GDP of these islands (in
purchasing power parity terms) was approximately
$24 billion in 2006. Although small in total
population and relatively low in economic
development, the Pacific island region is
strategically important for several reasons.
First, the geographic position of the
Pacific is very important for the development of
China's maritime interests. This area is located
at the gateway of the Pacific Ocean from east to
west and south to north. Along with its expanding
interests and influence from land to sea, China
will pay more attention to overseas development.
For example, a number of observatories can be set
up in the Pacific, once foreign relations are
established, which will be important for China's
future satellite and space technologies.
Second, while China has diplomatic
relations with eight Pacific islands countries
(Cook Islands, Fiji, Micronesia, Niue, Papua New
Guinea, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu), Taiwan has six
(Nauru, Palau, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu,
Kiribati, and Marshall Islands), accounting for
one quarter of the total 24 countries with which
Taiwan has diplomatic ties. China has much to do
in this area to check and reverse Taiwan's
diplomatic inroads. Friendly and cooperative
relations between China and all Pacific islands
countries will help with understanding and
acceptance of the "One China" principle at all
government, enterprise and non-governmental
levels.
Third, while two internal major
powers (Australia and New Zealand), and two
external major powers (The United States and
France), have their respective spheres of
influence and provide security and stability for
the Pacific Islanders, China's influence in the
region is mainly diplomatic and economic. China's
engagement in the region has to consider the
interests and concerns of both internal island
countries and external major powers.
Question 2: What are China's interests
and objectives in the Pacific? Some Western
specialists argue that China's main objectives in
the Pacific are to switch diplomatic relations and
to garner influence but not replace the United
States as the regional hegemonic power. Others
argue that China has devised a comprehensive
strategy to take advantage of waning US interest
in the region since the end of the Cold War. Some
add that China has attempted to enhance its
penetration of the region through emigration.
To my understanding, natural resources,
trade and economic cooperation are China's basic
interests and primary objectives in the Pacific,
and therefore the most important motives of
China's active engagement in the region.
The respective economies of China and the
Pacific island countries are mutually
complementary. China has funding and technical
expertise. The island countries are rich in
natural resources. Herein lies huge potential for
bilateral cooperation and China has undertaken a
series of steps to promote this cooperation.
According to the China-Pacific Island Countries
Economic Development and Cooperation Guiding
Framework which was concluded in 2006, China
pledged $375 million in development assistance and
low-interest loans without any political strings
attached.
China promised to provide
enterprises of the Pacific island countries with
favorable loans of about $400 million within three
years, as well as five aid programs. China gave
zero-tariff treatment to the majority of exports
to China from the least developed countries in the
region. China also canceled their debts that
became mature at the end of 2005 and has expressed
interest in a free-trade agreement with Pacific
Island countries. Furthermore, as a dialogue
partner of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), China
has set up the China-PIF Cooperation Fund to help
finance the Pacific Plan designed to promote
regional cooperation.
Questions 3: How will China implement
an effective strategy in the Pacific? First,
long-term relations with mutual trust depend on to
what extent China can help Pacific island
countries from being marginalized because of
economic globalization and to what extent China
can work together with them to deal with threats
such as environmental degradation and the rise of
sea level. Also essential is to what extent China
can assist them to overcome development
difficulties and debt burdens.
Second,
China's active engagement and growing influence in
Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa have
attracted much concern and suspicion from other
major powers. Pacific island countries are located
near the US, Japan and Australia, and have
traditional relations with some European
countries. This situation needs China to emphasize
the importance of major power coordination and act
in an harmonious manner.
Third, it is not
advisable for China cooperate with the Pacific
island countries according to the line of the
Taiwan issue, nor exclude those which have
diplomatic relations with Taiwan. This will divide
the region into two parts and not prove beneficial
to the development of regionalism. In contrast, if
China can provide multilateral assistance for the
Pacific island countries with the region as a
whole to consider, diplomatic relations will be
changed gradually to favor China.
Zhang Guihong is professor of
international relations and deputy director of the
Center for UN Studies at Fudan University in
Shanghai. He can be reached at
(Copyright 2008
Zhang Guihong.)
Speaking Freely is
an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest
writers to have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
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