TAIPEI - Hours after former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian concluded his
final term in office on May 20, prosecutors launched an investigation against
him in an alleged corruption scandal involving his wife.
In the same week, Chen, 57, was accused by Taiwan's defense minister of staging
his own 2004 assassination attempt to win sympathy votes on the eve of his
re-election. Chen's wife Wu Shu-chen, whose embezzlement trial is ongoing, was
barred from leaving the country. All this comes after Chen's son-in-law was
convicted of insider trading, and several of Chen's close aides indicted on
corruption.
No one would have thought in 2000, when Chen was first elected, that things
would come to this. Voters then saw Chen, from the
now-opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), as a breath of fresh air
compared to the authoritarian Kuomintang (KMT) government which had ruled the
island since 1949 after losing a civil war in mainland China.
After all, Chen was a child of sugarcane farmers who earned a scholarship to a
top university and eventually cut his teeth as a defense attorney for
pro-democracy activists. Later, he became mayor of Taipei and president. Chen
was seen as a native son who did well for himself; an embodiment of the hopes
of many on this island of 23 million for a clean government that would be
responsive to the needs of the people.
To the West, at least initially, he was the poor "little guy", the defender of
democratic Taiwan's sovereignty against giant communist China.
But today, as Taiwan ushers in President Ma Ying-jeou from the KMT, the legacy
and future of Chen is clouded with doubt. Critics, and there are many, blame
him for a lagging economy, a failed policy toward China and strained relations
with Taiwan's most important ally, the United States. Supporters say he did his
best, and the failures are not his alone.
However, even critics concede that Chen has made significant impacts, some
still unnoticed, that will have a lasting influence on the island. One
little-noted example is the unintended consequences of his ability to
antagonize China.
Last week, Taiwan and China held talks for the first time after eight years of
silence under Chen. The summit was the first ever between the Taiwanese ruling
party (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party. As a result, Beijing seems close
to giving the green light on cross-strait direct weekend chartered flights and
the island's tourism bureau is scurrying to prepare for an expected influx of
Chinese tourists.
Still, few are mentioning Chen's indirect role in helping to bring this about.
"Without Chen Shui-bian, perhaps China wouldn't have easily undergone this
change," said Kou Chien-wen, a political scientist and cross-strait relations
expert at National Chengchi University in Taipei, who is also a critic of Chen.
Not only did Chen refuse to acknowledge the "One China policy" - under which
China defines Taiwan as a part of its territory - he also rejected the 1992
Consensus, in which both sides agreed there is one China, although with the
caveat that each side can define that as it wishes. Chen devoted much of his
two four-year terms - the maximum a Taiwanese president can serve - to pushing
for a Taiwanese identity separate from China. Beijing continues to consider the
island part of its territory awaiting reunification.
By frequently insisting that Taiwan is an independent state, seeking accession
to the United Nations under the name Taiwan instead of the Republic of China,
and trying to change the constitution to do away with references to China, Chen
made Beijing realize the danger of a pro-independence president ruling the
island. In many ways, he convinced China to work with its former arch enemy -
the KMT - which, according to analysts, is not against eventual unification.
"Since the DPP came into power in Taiwan, China has lowered its requirements,
demands and expectations from the KMT," said Kou.
Beijing now only requires the current Taiwanese government to acknowledge the
1992 Consensus, and rarely mentions reunification, preferring to talk about
improving ties instead.
"China is afraid that if the DPP rises again, then someone like Chen Shui-bian
will come into power again and China will have headaches that it will have to
invest time and effort into solving," said Kou. "Their current goal isn't
reunification ... They have much more important tasks to deal with. As long as
Taiwan doesn't formally declare independence, they are happy. Their belief is:
'Once I'm stronger, then it'll be harder for Taiwan to run away, so I'm not in
a hurry'."
The public's focus on Chen has, however, centered on the negative aspects of
his eight-year rule. Chen's obsession with inching towards independence, his
inability to boost economic growth and the corruption scandals involving his
family and aides are widely seen as the reasons for his party's major losses in
the January 12 legislative elections and the March 22 presidential election.
During Chen's rule, Taiwan's economy grew by an average 3.7% annually, less
than half of the rate during his predecessors' terms. Unemployment rose from
2.9% in 2000, to 3.9% last year. He's blamed for marginalizing Taiwan's
economy, partly by restricting investments to and from China, restricting
Chinese tourists and students and irking Beijing to a point where the island
could not reap the benefits of its neighbor's rapid growth.
Chen's pro-independence stance also upset the United States, which prefers the
status quo.
Approval ratings for Chen fell from 79%, in his first month as president in
2000, to 21% when he left office, according to a survey by United Daily News.
"He didn't take care of the economy. He closed the door to China ... All he
cared about was independence, but independence is not that simple to achieve,"
said Renee Lin, a 23-year-old Taipei resident.
Unable, or perhaps afraid, to truly assert Taiwan's independence, Chen resorted
to cosmetic gestures: freezing the funds of the Unification Committee and
erasing references of Taiwan's historical links to China by renaming public
places and state-owned companies to eliminate references to China.
Although some believe Chen wasted money in the renaming campaign, there are few
plans to change the names back, except for that of the postal service and
stamps.
Supporters say Chen's difficulties - namely in handling the economy and China -
cannot be blamed entirely on him.
"Beijing made up its mind not to trust Chen, so they simply waited for him to
step down," said Hsu Yung-ming, a political science professor and expert on the
DPP at Soochow University in Taipei. "Actually in those eight years Chen wanted
to find a way to improve relations with China."
Chen had proposed talks with China and sent many envoys, including academics,
on low-profile visits to China, according to Hsu.
Despite his "creeping independence", as Beijing called it, Chen opened the
"Three Mini Links", which enabled direct transportation between Taiwan's
outlying islands and cities in southeast China's Fujian province.
With a large number of manufacturers and investors moving to China, Taiwan's
economy naturally faced difficulties, Chen defenders said, adding that the
opposition-controlled legislature was also uncooperative. But detractors
believe Chen could have done more to bridge partisan divisions and lift the
economy.
Other analysts argue that in Chen's entire political career, not just his
presidency, he helped bring about significant changes that improved Taiwan.
"Actually he's done a lot for Taiwanese society ... but people have short
memories," said Shane Lee, a politics and law professor at the Institute of
Taiwan Studies in Chang Jung Christian University in southern Taiwan's Tainan
City, Chen's hometown and key support base.
As a legislator, he exposed scandals in the government. As Taipei mayor, he
fostered respect among civil servants for the people, requiring government
clerks who face the public to lower their desks.
"He changed people's concept about government. Since he became mayor, people
started to believe that public servants are supposed to serve them, even the
police, whom they feared in the past," Lee said.
As president, Chen oversaw the successful completion of several major
infrastructure projects, including the High Speed Rail, the Snow Mountain
Tunnel, as well as the science park in central Taiwan's Taichung City. One of
his most popular initiatives was paying the elderly a monthly stipend.
But DPP insiders said Chen's personality was one of his downfalls. Chen was too
obsessed with control and changed premiers many times, partly for fear they
would threaten his position, said one former senior DPP official, who declined
to be named. Six premiers served during Chen's eight-year tenure. This caused
discontinuity in policies, the official said. Chen also tended to promote
officials based on favoritism, analysts said.
"I don't think he's such a big policy administrator. He thinks from a political
angle, not a policy angle," said the official.
But many agree that perhaps Chen's most far-reaching legacy is raising
Taiwanese people's consciousness about their national identity. Before Chen
came to power in 2000, only 30% of island residents identified themselves as
Taiwanese, now more than 70% do, according to surveys. "A large part of this
should be attributed to him," said Lee.
Although some people found his frequent use of Taiyu, the dialect spoken
by the majority Taiwanese whose ancestors came from China's Fujian province
centuries ago, as alienating to other ethnic groups, others found it
empowering.
"Only until Chen Shui-bian's administration came into power did the government
promote being proud of your history, your heritage ... It was out of respect,
not divisiveness," Lee said.
Taiyu, as well as other ethnic and indigenous dialects, were banned in
schools and work places under the KMT, which promoted Mandarin.
After Chen became president, Taiyu as well as other dialects like Hakka
and other indigenous dialects, became widely taught in schools where local
cultures were promoted. Some groups even obtained government funding for their
own TV station.
"If the KMT had continued to stay in power, Taiwan's consciousness would not be
brought up," Lee said.
But despite the divergent opinions on his shortcomings and accomplishments,
Chen's future still hangs in the balance.
Chen's wife has been indicted for allegedly using fake invoices to get
reimbursement totaling NT$14.8 million (US$485,000) from a presidential fund
intended for foreign diplomacy. Chen was protected by presidential impunity
prior to leaving office, but has subsequently denied any wrongdoing by himself
or his family. He argues that there was no reason to take the money as he had
voluntarily cut his salary in half during his time in office.
Public opinion polls show a large number of people want to see him investigated
and punished if found guilty. Tens of thousands of people protested in the
streets for weeks against corruption in 2006, many were demanding Chen's
resignation.
As prosecutors prepare their case against Chen, analysts caution that a trial
could further destabilize the already fractious political scene in Taiwan.
While 58% of voters voted for Ma, around 41% voted for Hsieh in the March
presidential race. "If Chen is prosecuted, it will open up a can of worms,"
said Lee.
Supporters of Chen will likely consider a conviction unfair because the KMT was
notorious for corruption during its half-century rule in Taiwan.
"Try him? They'd better not. The KMT was 10 times more corrupt," said Chen
Yu-hung, a Taipei cab driver, who reflects the view of the significant number
of Chen fans, especially blue-collar workers.
Analysts believe that even if Chen is convicted, Ma should pardon him to
protect the respectability of the presidency.
Since leaving office, Chen has kept a low profile, other than having a lawyer
file a defamation suit against the defense minister for accusing him of setting
up his own assassination attempt.
An investigation into that mysterious incident on March 19, 2004, which
occurred when Chen was campaigning in Tainan, is also expected to be re-opened
by the current KMT government. A bullet grazed Chen's stomach, but he was
released from hospital the same day. His administration had claimed a Tainan
man critical of Chen - and later found drowned - was the gunman, but the man's
family denies this. Chen was re-elected by a margin of less than 30,000 votes.
And despite his present silence, few expect the outspoken Chen to remain silent
for long.
With his strong convictions on Taiwan's sovereignty, analysts believe there
could be a role for him as a watchdog on the KMT's negotiations with China,
especially looking for signs that Taiwan may be compromising its independence.
Partly due to Chen, Taiwanese people are strongly against being absorbed by
China, although the public also learned - through Chen's mistakes - the
importance of not antagonizing China, especially when it needs its neighbor's
economic muscle to strengthen the island's economy.
"Taiwanese people's desire to not be controlled by China is very strong," said
Kou.
Cindy Sui is a freelance journalist based in Taipei.
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