Page 2 of 2 China takes on the US - in space
By Alan Boyd
the US and all other potential space combatants, and the Americans do their
best to make sure the others about know it.
A 2004 report titled "Transformation Flight Plan" pulled the curtain right back
on a bewildering high-tech research strategy that left little doubt the
Pentagon wanted complete superiority in space - treaty or no treaty - and was
ready to turn it into a battlefield if necessary.
Crucially, the program proposes a shift from protecting satellites from hostile
attack to developing an offensive capability, including the tracking and
neutralizing of enemy orbiters, and weapons with the ability "to strike ground
targets anywhere in the world from space".
Like much that originates from the Pentagon's research boffins,
the report lapses into fantasy at times. There is something called a
Hypervelocity Rod Bundles project, widely discredited by scientists, that would
fire metal poles from space to targets on Earth. Then there is the sci-fi plan
to dangle giant mirrors below airships to deflect laser beams that could be
used to cripple satellites or block out communications, if they could be
steered to the right location in time.
The US Air Force, which is leading the research thrust, expects to be able to
disrupt space-based communications and early warning systems by 2010 and to
have air-launched missiles that could intercept satellites in low orbit after
2015.
But these targets were drawn up under a strongly pro-ASAT George W Bush
administration that took its inspiration from the strategic vision of defense
secretary Donald Rumsfeld. It will be leaving office in November.
As he was taking up his post in 2001, Rumsfeld laid out his intentions to
escalate the ASAT race while chairing a commission on space and national
security, warning that to do otherwise would risk a "space Pearl Harbor".
Rumsfeld argued that the US needed to "vigorously pursue the capabilities ...
to ensure that the president will have the option to deploy weapons in space".
Congressmen, sitting on both sides of the political spectrum, have been less
enthusiastic. Reluctant to commit money to fantastic weapons that might never
work, they have joined forces in the House Armed Services Committee to slash
hundreds of millions of dollars from missile defense and ASAT research in the
past two years.
Among the scuttled programs was an additional interceptor site in Europe,
research into lasers that would target satellites and funding for a space-based
missile defense interceptor. Allocations for the high-altitude airships were
sharply reduced.
Officially at least, no American president has yet crossed the line and
authorized the deployment of a space weapon, but the day is fast coming when it
may be unavoidable.
Republican presidential candidate John McCain was cast from the same mold as
Rumsfeld on defense issues and will probably keep the cash pot boiling; his
Democratic opponent Barack Obama would need a lot more convincing.
Both may be left with little choice if the Chinese stage any more ASAT tests,
which many security analysts believe simply harden US public opinion and hand
the initiative back to the hawks at the Pentagon.
"Whatever their motivation, there is little doubt it [the 2007] test was a
miscalculation," said an Australian diplomat. "They miscalculated the US
response and of course forfeited the moral high ground after successfully
portraying themselves as the voice of the disarmament movement.
"It's [also] a little hard to ignore China's shipments of missile technology
that impinges upon US strategic interests and might even be adapted for future
ASAT deployment," he said.
The pro-ASAT lobby contends the US cannot sit on its hands while countries like
Syria, Libya, North Korea and Iran, all hostile to American geopolitical
influences, are getting missiles capable of threatening US satellites from
China and Russia. In Asia, feuding neighbors Pakistan and India have also
benefited.
China shipped components for the Fateh-110 missile developed by Iran and also
sold it the Tondar-69, which the PLA had designed as the CSS-8. Pakistan
purchased parts for its Shaheen and Hatf series from the Chinese, as well as
the Ghauri-3.
Beijing has also sanctioned the PLA's defense technology arm to help Iran,
Pakistan and North Korea - and reportedly Syria - establish military targeting
satellites or space launch programs.
Russia supplied components for Iran's Shahab series, shipped the SS-21s used by
both Syria and North Korea, the Scud B used by Libya and the Agri series
deployed by India. The Indians also bought parts for their Prithv series and
Sagarika from Russia.
In addition, the Russians have their Kondor-E military satellite, designed to
guide high-speed supersonic cruise missiles with space-targeting sensors, on
sale on the open market.
India, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan, as well as China, have already produced
or flight-tested missiles with ranges exceeding 2,600 kilometers, easily within
the range of low-orbit satellites.
America satellite defenses have been tested by what Washington terms "unstable
regimes", pointing to the increased vulnerability of orbiters that are vital to
military communications - not to mention the word economy.
The most extreme confirmed attack took place during the second war with Iraq,
when signals transmitted from that country's embassy in Cuba jammed American
commercial communications satellite traffic.
According to defense officials, there have also been sporadic attacks on US
military satellites from ground-based laser systems. Several versions of these
lasers are being exported by both China and Russia.
Citing the incidents, ASAT supporters said these had shifted the space war
debate from the futuristic to the present. The issue had now become one of
vital national security for the Americans.
"The US cannot allow our space assets to be threatened," the commander of the
US Strategic Command, Admiral James O Ellis, warned after the Iraqi attacks.
"We must continue to develop and field space control assets that provide us the
ability to use our space systems when and where we need, while denying that
capability - when necessary - to our adversaries. To avoid significant 21st
century consequences, we must act now to protect and defend America's interests
in space."
Alan Boyd, now based in Sydney, has reported on Asia for more than two
decades.
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