SUN WUKONG Beijing plays it cool over US arms deals
By Wu Zhong, China Editor
HONG KONG - Chinese leaders have repeatedly stressed that Taiwan is the most
sensitive issue in China-United States relations. And US arms sales to what
Beijing calls its "renegade island" have always been a potential tipping point
in the delicate trilateral balance.
In past weeks, however, Beijing has played it decidedly cool. The government
provided little praise for recent reports claiming the George W Bush
administration was halting arms sales to Taiwan, and it refused to react
furiously - as it has always done the past - over subsequent reports that
Washington would resume selling advanced weapons to the island.
A convenient explanation is that Beijing does not want anything to
jeopardize the Summer Olympic Games which start on Friday. In fact, Chinese
officials are particularly happy that President Bush will be present at the
opening ceremony.
But a closer look suggests Beijing's aloof approach may mask much more
important issues.
Conflicting reports
Beijing's coolness over the conflicting reports of US arms sales to Taiwan may
mark a change in its stance on the issue. China's rapid economic and military
expansion and the recent thaw in cross-Taiwan Strait relations may have already
had an impact on relations between the three countries.
Beijing may now recognize that US arms sales to Taiwan are a diplomatic
mainstay - simply a part of life. Washington can play this card any time it
likes, regardless of China's reaction. The indifference Beijing has shown
recently may suggest that a more self-confident China will not dance to the
tune set by Washington. China's strategists may hope that such an approach will
render Washington's arms sales ploy less effective in its alleged plan to
contain a roaring China.
On June 12, the Washington Post reported that senior US officials such as
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen
Hadley were holding up the delivery of 66 F-16 C/D Block 50/52 fighter jets for
Taiwan, possibly until Bush leaves office. Earlier reports from Taiwan,
however, claimed that the Taipei government had privately asked Washington to
delay future arms sales because it was then completing negotiations with
Beijing to open cross-strait direct flights.
Four days later, Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of the US Pacific Command,
indirectly confirmed that the Bush administration had placed a freeze on arms
sales to Taiwan. Keating said policy-makers in the administration "reconciled
Taiwan's military posture, China's current military posture and strategy that
indicates there is no pressing, compelling need for, at the moment, arms sales
to Taiwan".
His statement echoed earlier ones by Tan Chih-lung, the leader of Taiwan's
military delegation in the United States. Taiwan's state-run Central News
Agency reported that, according to Tan, eight congressional notifications of
arms sales were pending in the Department of State, and it remained uncertain
whether the arms procurements could be completed within Bush's term. The
pending items include anti-tank missiles, Apache helicopters, Patriot PAC-3
missile batteries, diesel-powered submarines, P3C anti-submarine aircraft and
sea-launched Harpoon missiles, according to Tan.
But, two days later, when asked to comment on Keating's remarks, spokesman for
the Department of State Sean McCormack reiterated that the US had not changed
its policy on arms sales to Taiwan. "The administration faithfully implements
the Taiwan Relations Act, under which the United States makes available items
necessary for Taiwan to maintain a sufficient defense," McCormack said during a
press briefing. McCormack stressed the policy "is applicable for all US
government agencies, whether it's the Department of Defense, Department of
State or any other part of the US government".
Over the weekend of July 19-20, Wang Jin-pyng, president of Taiwan's
Legislative Yuan (parliament), said in Washington he was fully confident that
the Bush administration would proceed with arms sales to Taiwan after the
Olympics.
Wang said he believed the US State Department would proceed with the arms sales
package that Washington approved in 2001. "The passage of the procurement
package is actually a 'matter of course' since it has been approved by the US
president, its budget had been passed by the legislature and the relevant
preparations are almost all in place," Wang said at a news conference in
Washington.
Wang flew to the US last week after Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou had
reasserted that weaponry for defense purposes was vital to Taiwan's security.
He added that potentially improved ties with Beijing would not halt the
purchase of weapons.
Taiwan's CNA reported last Wednesday that Bush would notify China of the
upcoming arms sales to Taiwan when he attended the opening Games ceremony in
Beijing. Quoting an unnamed source, CNA said Bush would personally tell his
Chinese counterpart President Hu Jintao that Washington would provide Taiwan
with weapons in line with the Taiwan Relations Act, but was likely to delay the
sale until after the Olympics.
The PLA and 'protection money'
Some military analysts in Beijing believe that through contradictory remarks,
Washington may be testing Beijing's reaction in the hopes of concessions on
other issues. Beijing's aloof response may signal a more pragmatic and flexible
approach, according to analysts.
Moreover, cross-strait relations are still in their honeymoon since Ma was
sworn in in May and Beijing may not feel inclined to ruin the mood with futile
protests over US arms sales.
More importantly, China is greatly outpacing Taiwan economically. Taiwan's
gross domestic product was US$410.33 billion in 2007, only 11.4% of China's
US$3.6 trillion. Taiwan's economy is smaller than that of Guangdong (US$447.79
billion in 2007), China's richest province.
The gap will widen in coming years, and increasing weapons spending will only
become a larger burden on Taiwan.
Under such circumstances, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) brass are happy to
see more US arms sales to Taiwan as this gives them an excuse to demand a
bigger defense budget for themselves. "China now can afford an arms race with
Taiwan. The island's economy will collapse first if it wants to lock in such a
race with China," according to an analysts in Beijing.
"Our real concern is US intervention should there be a military conflict across
the Taiwan Strait. Given its small size, no matter how many weapons it buys
from the US, the Taiwanese military could hardly defend itself without the help
of Uncle Sam," a PLA officer said.
Beijing realizes that in this arrangement Taipei must pay a certain amount of
"protection" money to the US in the form of arms purchase and other deals.
Chinese weapons developers may also be hoping the US sells advanced weapons to
Taiwan because it is easier for Beijing to "obtain" US technology through
Taiwan. The two rivals have spied on each other skillfully for many years and
agents commonly infiltrate the other side. "The US is well aware of the
possibility that the technologies in weapons it sells to Taiwan could pass to
China, sooner or later in one way or another, so it never wants to sell its
most advanced weapons to Taiwan," another analyst said.
Also, there is a possibility - as remote as it may be - of the unification of
China and Taiwan. In this scenario, all the weapons on the island would become
PLA property. "Policy makers in Washington are not fools who certainly would
have taken this possibility into consideration when they decide on what weapons
to sell to Taiwan," the analyst says.
In the end, the PLA may view US arms sales to Taiwan not so much as a threat,
but as an opportunity to upgrade itself.
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