China needs sharper eyes in space
By Peter J Brown
If China wants to become a dominant space power, it must step up and take a
leading role in providing new Earth observation satellite (EOSAT) technology.
However, the field is crowded and becoming more so, making this a far more
difficult task than previously thought.
China has been slow to make any significant headway in the global satellite
communications market - see
China lost in SE Asian space (Asia Times Online, October 10, 2008) -
and sharing EOSAT technology was sitting at the top of the list when it
outlined its regional "space cooperation" priorities in October 2005. That's
when the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO) Convention was
signed in Beijing by
China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand and
later Turkey.
Just three years later, in early September this year, China launched a 510
kilogram research EOSAT into low Earth orbit, part of a joint project which
involved Thailand, Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia, Bangladesh and South Korea.
Besides enhancing disaster response capabilities in the region, this EOSAT will
be used to monitor and assess natural resources and agricultural trends, among
other things.
Almost immediately after, on October 1, Thailand's Geo-Informatics and Space
Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) announced the successful launch of the
Thailand Earth Observation Satellite (THEOS). This European-built,
Russian-launched satellite has apparently already attracted offers from China,
Japan and Sweden who want to distribute satellite imagery generated by THEOS.
The EOSAT business has changed quickly, becoming almost a long distance phone
call-like system in the process, and EOSAT-generated imagery - apart from
classified military surveillance data - is rapidly bought and sold in very high
resolution across borders. Consumers can access it easily online at very low or
no cost, thanks to ventures likes Google Earth, for example.
For years, well before the emergence of APSCO, China had attempted to gain
ground by expending considerable time and energy in its EOSAT technology
outreach and training activities in Asia, under the auspices of the
Asia-Pacific Multilateral Cooperation on Space Technology and Application
(AP-MCSTA) pact.
China's Beihang University, the AP-MCSTA secretariat, and the China National
Space Administration (CNSA) have jointly sponsored a large number of graduate
students over the past few years. Many from Thailand in particular have studied
in China under its Master Program on Space Technology and Applications, and the
vast majority of these students focused on advanced EOSAT programs which they
can now bring to fruition via THEOS.
In Laos, China plans to soon build a new ground station, and will be providing
other equipment and technical training. This will vastly improve the ability of
Laos to receive and process EOSAT data. Myanmar is another Southeast Asian
country that China has provided with EOSAT technology in the past so Myanmar
could better monitor opium cultivation within its borders, among other things.
One successful Chinese EOSAT initiative early on was the Feng Yun Satellite
Data Broadcasting System, which was overseen by China's Central Meteorological
Administration and is still being used by several Asian countries including
Laos, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand as well as other South and
Central Asian countries.
Elsewhere, in Latin America for example, Brazil has emerged as China's biggest
EOSAT partner. China will launch a new EOSAT for Venezuela - scheduled for 2013
- following Venezuela's failed attempt to buy into Israel's ImageSat project.
Despite all of this activity, China may now be compelled to rethink its EOSAT
strategy, perhaps even shelving many plans altogether in the face of a global
surge in EOSAT-related projects.
In a report on EOSAT trends released this year, Paris-based Euroconsult
estimated that nearly 200 new EOSATs are expected to be launched through 2017.
While established government EOSAT programs overseen by the world's largest
space agencies including NASA, the European Space Agency, France's CNES, and
India's ISRO will maintain their dominant status, their share of total EOSATs
will drop from a high of 77% from the period of 1997 to 2006 to only 36% over
the coming decade.
What stands out is that private companies will be ordering an estimated 29
EOSATs over the next decade which will account for almost one-fifth of total
EOSATs on order - almost six times the number of EOSATs ordered by the private
sector in the prior decade. While these Euroconsult projections may be highly
optimistic and subject to revision, they nevertheless point to an EOSAT market
in transition.
Launch plans for upcoming space tourist flights may well include space
available for low-cost, uninsured and low-weight EOSAT constellation payloads
as a means to enhance their profitability.
Here, the real issue facing China is timing, and whether or not Beijing will
really gain any significant ground in a geopolitical sense by aggressively
pursuing new joint ventures in the EOSAT realm. Any discussion of EOSATs in
general has traditionally touched on the subject of "dual-use" technology, that
is, the fact that any EOSAT project can be quickly and easily adapted for
military surveillance purposes.
However, China's recent experiences, with a devastating earthquake in
particular, suggest that its rapid upgrading of overall disaster preparedness,
response and recovery capabilities has taken on an added sense of urgency. With
this comes the recognition of the need for a closer integration of EOSAT
technology into all disaster preparedness and emergency management operations.
In other words, EOSATs today are really all about achieving a "triple use"
solution in terms of bonding together multiple civilian GIS (Geographic
Information Systems) and environmental monitoring applications together with
military surveillance and disaster response applications and networks - all on
one satellite.
China cannot dismiss India - and Japan
Despite their relatively low number of satellite launches to date, two other
Asian space agencies, India's ISRO and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
or JAXA, loom large and have many new satellite programs including EOSATs
already in motion.
ISRO in particular is probably what compels Chinese officials to lie awake at
night as they try to figure out how they might aggressively outmaneuver India
and its relatively down-to-earth approach.
Besides having a coastal rocket launch facility already in operation - ISRO's
Satish Dhawan Space Center is far closer to the equator than China's new
facility on Hainan Island - India is making rapid inroads into Southeast Asia,
Africa and other parts of the world, while inking several launch contracts and
satellite deals with the Israelis and Europeans.
Not only is India's prowess in the EOSAT realm attracting considerable
attention, but India has already undertaken ambitious satellite-based distance
education and telemedicine projects covering vast rural areas. India is the
first country to launch the dedicated distance learning satellites known as
EDUSAT, and is demonstrating that it can be an effective integrator of
terrestrial networks and satellite infrastructures after working its way
through a somewhat painful learning curve.
Even if China figures out an effective way to neutralize or at least spoil
India's efforts to woo new customers, China will have to keep pace with the
European Space Agency's expansive plans for a new Global Monitoring for
Environment and Security (GMES) system. a multi-EOSAT constellation with a
price tag of well over $3 billion, along with a long list of other EOSAT
contenders like DigitalGlobe and GeoEye in the US, Canada's RadarSats and
perhaps even Germany's SARLupes, to name a few.
The one wildcard in this mix, however, remains the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. Was
this single event so powerful that it dismantled China's EOSAT strategy which
was undergoing major modification as a result of all the EOSAT-related trends
mentioned previously?
Perhaps not, but doors that were already starting to open prior to the
earthquake are now suddenly opening even wider at the Center for Earth
Observation and Digital Earth of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. And China has
recently joined with the US, Europeans and South Africans on the Group on Earth
Observations' executive committee which is addressing new strategies for
environmental monitoring and EOSAT deployments.
CNSA is a longstanding member of the International Charter of Space and Major
Disasters which deploys EOSATs over disaster zones, and CNSA supports
activities undertaken by the UN Platform for Space-based Information for
Disaster Management and Emergency Response or SPIDER, along with other
organizations.
The 2008 earthquake, which followed right after the devastating cyclone in
Myanmar, simply gave China a better reason to see these and other related
EOSAT-driven projects in a new light.
China has not abandoned its dreams for APSCO and it will never cease in its
efforts to devise new small and even nano-satellite technologies. Nor will it
ever be ready or willing to abandon military surveillance projects of all
kinds. China's ongoing and hugely successful space technology espionage
campaign in both the US and Europe has major military space ramifications, and
it will persist. That said, the global EOSAT race is now different in
character, and, China's priorities and aspirations in this regard will likely
have to change over the coming decade.
Peter J Brown, a Maine-based satellite specialist, writes frequently
about satellite industry trends and developments in Asia.
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