Obama to redefine Asia ties? Not so fast
By Patrick Burns
NEW YORK - For all of president-elect Obama's talk about rebalancing America's
foreign policy, he is expected to offer few fundamental policy changes in Asia.
It's more likely, judging by recent cabinet appointments, that the new
administration will revive existing Asian alliances and bring a fresh
perspective to new and old problems in the region.
Given the economic meltdown and the global shift of economic power eastward,
the Obama team will prioritize the Asian economic powerhouses, especially
China. That's why Obama's first official visit may be to Beijing, as some
experts are
forecasting. The other evidence of a reinvigorated Sino-US economic partnership
is the two unambiguously pro-China voices in his financial team.
Future Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner's experience in Asia covers nearly
the whole continent. He has lived in India, Thailand, China and Japan, speaks
Japanese and Mandarin, and led the Center on Indian Affairs at University of
Pennsylvania. Further, Geithner's top aide, Jeffrey Bader, is a China expert
and national security veteran.
Geithner's background will give him flexibility as he tackles America's
mounting trade deficit with China. He can make an immediate impact at the
future meetings of the Strategic Economic Dialogue. In the next series of
bilateral trade talks, officials in Beijing will appreciate a Mandarin speaker
from the US.
Working closely with Geithner will be Lawrence Summers as the head of the White
House Economic Council. Summers, the brilliant former president of Harvard, is
a staunch supporter of China's currency policy. When others, including
then-senator Obama, complained about the dollar-yuan exchange rate, Summers
urged restraint. He's a popular speaker at economic forums in Hong Kong,
Singapore and India, and was the only American to serve on an exploratory panel
of the Asian Development Bank.
Summers' support of free trade could diffuse anxiety over Obama's protectionist
overtones. And of the dozens of requests being thrust on the new
administration, one from South Korea is that Summers will convince Obama to
ratify the US-South Korea free-trade deal.
Obama's financial team may be looking eastward, but his incoming secretary of
state will have a tougher time making inroads in Asia.
Hillary Clinton has somewhat of a rocky past with China. As first lady, Clinton
shuttled to China to denounce the lack of human rights. And few have forgotten
that she recommended that President George W Bush skip the opening ceremony of
the Beijing Summer Olympic Games in August as a show of solidarity with Tibet.
On top of this, the new secretary of state inherits a laborious task in East
Asia with the unraveling six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program and a
fragile partnership with China at the United Nations.
One of the biggest shake-ups for the next administration could be the approach
to denuclearization. In two years, the six-party talks accomplished little and
strained ties among the parties (Russia, China, Japan, US and North and South
Korea).
The talks have become anathema in Japan, where officials are "expecting some
new change of foreign policy will take place, at least in the issue of nuclear
nonproliferation", Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Yasutoshi Nishimura said
at a press conference this week in New York.
One of the possible US envoys for East Asia, Frank Jannuzi, has already
revealed a new strategy he'll advocate if appointed. Jannuzi, a Korea expert
and senior adviser to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, favors a program
modeled after the Cooperative Threat Reduction used in former Soviet states,
the Korea Times reported.
For Japan, retooling or completely scrapping the six-party talks will partially
atone for Obama's offer to meet with the North Korea leader. Many in Japan
favored Bush's tough talk on Pyongyang, and anxiously await how Clinton will
confront North Korea. With the 60th anniversary of the US-Japan defense
partnership coming up in 2010, a new approach to denuclearization could
catalyze the celebration.
Clinton's work with China will come to the forefront at the UN, where the
increasingly polarized Security Council has featured more than a few clashes
between the US and China. The incoming US ambassador Susan Rice is known for an
ambitious strategy of ending genocide in Africa. But first she'll have to
generate political will with China.
Still, Chinese officials at the UN are optimistic. "I think it's obvious that
the new administration will be much more proactive towards the UN, and overall
there will be more action and cooperation," Chinese Deputy Ambassador Liu
Zhenmin told Asia Times Online.
Another principle interlocutor between Washington and Beijing, and a key
appointment from the Obama camp, is the US ambassador to China. Those rumored
to fill the spot are John L Thornton, chair of the Brookings Institute and
visiting professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing; Susan Shirk, an Asia
Society fellow who served under the Bill Clinton administration, and veteran
diplomat Richard Holbrooke. Holbrooke was assistant secretary of state in
charge of East Asia policy under president Jimmy Carter and worked with China
while serving as UN envoy for Clinton.
With a heavy hitter such as Holbrooke in Asia, the US president could gain
another reputable voice in Beijing. Further help could come from the person
being considered for Director of National Intelligence, Dennis C Blair. He's an
Asia expert, and as the head of the US Pacific Command, he gained valuable
experience dealing with China and Taiwan.
Obama spent several years of his life in Asia. But judging by the cool reaction
to his election in the Asian media, he may have a long way to go to inspire
trust in the region. Nonetheless, Asia is expecting much out of the next
president. The team he has assembled so far just may be poised to deliver.
Patrick Burns is a New York-based journalist and United Nations resident
correspondent.
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