Page 2 of 2 China's role in commercial space on hold
By Peter J Brown
support. We need to unleash the power of the entrepreneurial spirit in the US,
China, and throughout the world."
There are other reasons why the creation of a private space sector in China
should be viewed in a positive light. Andrew Nelson, chief operating officer at
California-based XCOR Aerospace, sees a clear advantage to a vibrant private
sector pursuing reusable launch vehicles versus the expendable launch vehicles
which are typical of government-run space programs.
"[This includes] in the near and mid-term [say the next 5-10 years], the
implementation and development of an improved safety culture and the building
of a record of safety and reliability, while
at the same time, drastically lowering the costs and time line to put things
into orbit," said Nelson, who expects significant changes in the insurance
market for space launches as well.
"Today, it may cost upwards of 30% of the value of the satellite and launch for
insurance coverage. In the future, you will see self insurance or no insurance
on launch due to the small amounts of money it will take to build and launch a
satellite," said Nelson. "Space applications and businesses multiply as costs
come down and reliability and readiness go up."
The Chinese space industry appears to be following a similar path as all major
space programs around the world have followed, ie, it is responding to specific
national priorities with significant government investment, according to
Nelson.
"Once these national priorities are achieved and a period of government
investment is ready to transition to the private sector, it is reasonable to
assume that China’s leaders will more than likely promote commercialization of
the industry just as they have done with many other industries," said Nelson.
Massachusetts-based expert Charles Lurio, who publishes "The Lurio Report"
(www.thelurioreport.com) which covers all aspects of the private space sector,
agrees that China may be quite eager to plunge in when the time is right.
"Surely China, if any nation, can see the potential of such a change. Of
course, it is feasible. One question I have is whether China's government would
allow the development of private rocketry systems," said Lurio. "Or would they
say that they are necessarily a nucleus for weaponry, and should thus be kept
out of private hands?"
Lurio encourages the government of China to give serious consideration to
adapting its national space plans to promote space commercialization.
"The private entities that result will be looking for new markets: those
promise to both require and engender creation of much larger markets for space
access and operational capabilities. That and competition will spur much lower
costs for space access and operations systems that are fundamental to both
private and public goals in space," said Lurio, who added that identifying the
proper measures necessary to increase the awareness level for such
possibilities to unfold in China is a completely different issue.
After all, China has been a contender for decades in providing commercial
launch services via its Long March series of rockets sold by China Great Wall
Industry Corp (CGWIC), a state-run enterprise. In this instance, China is no
doubt adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and curious about any increased role
for privately financed space services in furthering US space policy.
"I suspect that the Chinese are waiting, like all of us, to see if any [of
these new companies] succeed because none of these new companies is carrying
paying payloads," said Derek Webber, Washington DC, director for Spaceport
Associates. "Such activities have not received massive support under the
current existing US administration, except for the COTS program, relying
largely instead on purely private financing. It will be interesting to see how
the new administration under Obama views these possibilities. You can be sure
that the Chinese will be watching this also."
And everyone is watching the fragile state of the world economy closely as
well. This could become a big factor for numerous private space startup
companies going forward.
"Due to the global economic downturn, I am not sure how viable prizes are since
there is not a great deal of venture capital out there, if any, to sustain a
development program," said Gold, who also blames an antiquated US regulatory
scheme as a major contributor to the fact that true space commercialization in
China is simply not feasible at this time.
"Because of my favorite four letter word, I - T - A - R, the [US-created]
International Traffic in Arms Regulations. The ITAR is obsolete,
counterproductive and arrogant, and the only nation whose space capabilities
are retarded by the ITAR is, ironically enough, the US itself," said Gold. "To
be clear, no one is saying that there isn’t a need for export control in regard
to sensitive military systems, but the over-breadth of the ITAR is like trying
to do open heart surgery with a chainsaw."
Gold looks forward to Obama's ITAR-related reform efforts.
"I hope that we will see some changes in the future, both in regard to
cooperating with China and export control reform in general," said Gold.
In 2004, representatives of CGWIC visited the Bigelow Aerospace facility in
Nevada to gain a better understanding of the company's innovative inflatable
space habitat technology.
"Of course, due to ITAR and other issues, we were not able to have much of a
discussion. As a matter of fact, to my knowledge, most of the talk was
basically around export control and other restrictions and whether we thought
any sort of relationship would ever be possible," said Gold. "Of course, the
conclusion was no, and, unless and until the environment changed, there really
was not much use even maintaining contact."
Professor Ling Yan, an international law professor at the China University of
Political Science and Law in Beijing and editor of New Legal Issues of Space
Law which was published in 2006, wrote recently about Chinese space regulations
in the Chinese Journal of International Law. Yan emphasizes that the contract
law of China enacted in 1999 provides the necessary legal framework to support
private sector space ventures. At the same time, China's national space
regulations may require more work and further clarification.
Yan disagrees with critics in the US in particular who constantly say that
there is no such thing as a private sector space industry in China and that all
of China's space activities - including satellite exports - are part of the
Chinese military space program and tightly controlled by the PLA.
"I do not think so. There are some other organizations [in China] involved in
space activities," said Yan, who pointed to several satellite projects carried
out at various institutions including those involving Tsing Hua University,
Harbin University of Technology, Zhejiang University, and the Beijing
University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. "It was reported recently that
Tsing Hua University and Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands will
jointly develop satellites. The Chinese Academy of Sciences has also placed
small satellites in outer space to monitor the environment, and aid in
forecasting disasters."
This activity and the emergence of Team Selene in Shanghai may signal the fact
that despite opinions to the contrary, space commercialization in China is well
underway.
Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine, USA.
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