SPEAKING FREELY
Weakest link in US-China ties endures
By Zhiqun Zhu
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Noting improvements in cross-Taiwan Strait relations since May 2008, Admiral
Timothy Keating, commander of the US Pacific Command which is responsible for
preserving security, stability, freedom and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific
region, remarked recently that he could now sleep well most nights. A direct
result of warming cross-Taiwan Strait relations is that the likelihood of a
US-China military clash over Taiwan has greatly diminished. However, military
relations remain the weakest link in the ever-expanding US-China bilateral
ties.
US-China relations have developed tremendously since the two countries
established formal diplomatic ties 30 years ago on January 1, 1979. Most
notably, the economies have become heavily interdependent and have reached a
point where they have to deal with the global economic downturn together.
Politically, top leaders meet frequently either at each other's capital or on
the sidelines of major multilateral forums. To highlight the importance of
bilateral economic and political relations, the two nations have held strategic
economic dialogue and the US-China Senior Dialogue on political and security
affairs for several years.
Educational and cultural exchanges are also blossoming across the Pacific.
Chinese remain one of the largest international student bodies on US college
campuses, and the number of American students studying or preparing to study in
China has been growing exponentially in recent years.
Chinese laobaixing (ordinary people) have always been enamored with
American culture and society. Barack Obama's election as the first non-white
American president excites many Chinese people as well. American universities
are also taking the lead in housing Confucius Institutes. As of the end of
2008, there are nearly 40 such centers for teaching Chinese language and
culture in the US which are sponsored by the Office of Chinese Language Council
International - or Hanban - in Beijing.
The weakest link
While developments in all these areas are truly encouraging, a glaring weak
link in this dynamic bilateral relationship remains - military ties. It is in
military relations that distrust and suspicion run the deepest between the two
countries. And from China's perspective, continuing US weapons sales to Taiwan
remain the biggest obstacle in bilateral relations as they are seen to
undermine Chinese interests in national unity and sovereignty.
The two militaries experienced several serious incidents in the past decade or
so that almost brought them to direct clashes. From the Taiwan Strait crisis of
1995-96 to the 1999 US bombing of the Chinese Embassy in the former Yugoslavia
and the 2001 air collision of a Chinese fighter jet and a US Navy EP-3
reconnaissance plane near Hainan Island, the two militaries have had a bumpy
relationship.
Even today, in the military establishment of both countries many still consider
the other as the greatest potential enemy and have used it as an easy excuse to
request higher defense budgets. Among others, the US Department of Defense's
annual report to the US Congress on the military power of the People's Republic
of China tends to exaggerate the potential threat from China, whose military
budget has been growing at a double-digit rate in the past decade, ostensibly
in preparation for a Taiwan Strait showdown.
Relations between the two militaries have steadily improved since September
11,2001, as the US shifted its strategic attention to the Middle East. The two
navies unprecedentedly conducted joint search and rescue exercises in 2006 in
the South China Sea.
During his visit to Beijing in early November 2007, US Defense Secretary Robert
Gates and his Chinese counterpart Cao Gangchuan formally agreed to set up a
military hotline. Still, suspicions remain and this volatile military
relationship has not been immune to disruptions in political ties.
At the end of November 2007, for example, the USS Kitty Hawk's scheduled visit
to Hong Kong was rejected by the Chinese government, disappointing soldiers and
sailors onboard and their anxious families who had expected to spend
Thanksgiving with their loved ones in Hong Kong. The military relationship
entered a frosty period again. The Chinese government never gave a clear answer
to the question of why the visit was turned down. Many believe it was in
retaliation for the US Congress awarding the Congressional Gold Medal - the
highest civilian honor - to the Dalai Lama a month earlier.
The two militaries did not resume regular exchanges until March 2008. As
military contacts increase and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) becomes more
confident and more transparent, the US seems to be more understanding of
China's growing military budget. As US Marine Corps commandant General James
Conway commented to Newsweek after his visit to China in April 2008, "China is
a big fish. And I accept any nation, especially with the industrial might and
the economic might that China has, has a reasonable expectation to be able to
protect themselves. I think it's fitting that China has a substantial
military." Many recognize that China's plan to accelerate the pace and scope of
its military has largely been fueled by a possible Taiwan Strait conflict in
which the US is likely to intervene. As cross-Taiwan Strait relations have
stabilized, US concern for such a scenario has eased.
New opportunities
The May 2008 Sichuan earthquake, though tragic, provided an opportunity for the
two militaries to resume high-level contact. After Admiral Keating talked to
Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, deputy chief of the General Staff of the PLA,
through the military hotline, the US Pacific Command dispatched air cargoes to
send rescue equipment and rescue teams to earthquake-hit areas. The US also
provided both commercial and military satellite images of the earthquake region
to China. However, China temporarily suspended military contacts with the US
again in October 2008 in protest over US arms sales to Taiwan valued at US$6.5
billion.
But the current international fight against pirates provides new opportunities
to enhance cooperation and coordination between the two militaries. Pirates
have become extremely active off the African coast since the early 2000s.
Vessels of many countries, including China's, have been attacked by pirates on
the high seas. In 2008 alone, more than 100 ships have been attacked by pirates
off the Somali coast and over 240 sailors held for ransom. According to China's
Foreign Ministry, 20% of Chinese ships passing through the waters near the
Somali coast had been attacked by pirates in the first 11 months of 2008.
In December, as China was preparing to send warships to the Gulf of Aden and
the waters off the Somali coast to fight against piracy and defend China's
commercial ships, the US welcomed Beijing's move and expressed its interest in
cooperating with China.
Keating of the US Pacific Command held out hopes for a revival in military
relations. "I hope the Chinese do [send ships to the Gulf of Aden] and we'll
work closely with them," Keating said during a briefing at the Foreign Press
Center in Washington on December 18. "I think this could be a springboard for a
resumption of dialogue between PLA forces and US Pacific Command forces." He
also revealed that his command had been in touch with other agencies and
military commands to provide information to the PLA Navy should it decide to
deploy warships in the Gulf of Aden.
The year 2009 will certainly be important, as the two great powers continue to
work together to meet the economic and security challenges facing the world.
The US-China relationship has become central to each nation's interests and to
maintaining peace, stability and prosperity in Asia-Pacific and the world. As
the two countries commemorate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of
diplomatic relations, it is high time for them to upgrade military relations,
dispel misunderstanding and deepen cooperation to build long-lasting peace in
the next 30 years and beyond.
Zhiqun Zhu, PhD, is MacArthur Chair in East Asian Politics and Associate
Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bucknell
University in Pennsylvania. He can be reached at zhiqun.zhu@bucknell.edu.
(Copyright 2009 Zhiqun Zhu)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say.
Please click hereif you are interested in contributing.
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