Page 1 of 2 A year of tragedy and triumph for Beijing By Kent Ewing
HONG KONG - The stunning pyrotechnical display that opened the Summer Olympic
Games in Beijing in August is a fitting image to remember as China closes the
book on 2008. A year that was rocked by trial and tragedy ultimately culminated
in explosive triumph, with Beijing staging what was, by many accounts, the most
successful Olympics ever.
The country reveled in its Olympic glory after the devastating winter storms
with which the year had begun and the far more devastating earthquake that
followed. And there was also lots of pre-Olympic anxiety and doubt as protests
against China's human rights record and stance on Tibet dogged the
international leg of
the Olympic torch relay and athletes worried about competing in Beijing's foul
air.
But the protests mercifully stopped once the torch arrived on Chinese soil, and
the Beijing air magically cleared during the Games, thanks to a special traffic
scheme and massive government-imposed factory shutdowns. After 17 flawlessly
organized days of compelling athletic competition, the international protests
had largely turned to praise. Beijing's official coming-out party had been a
marvelous success, and the Chinese nation and its worldwide diaspora could
breathe a tremendous sigh of relief.
Now, of course, although that grand Olympic memory lives proudly on, it has
been undercut by an economic crisis that began with high-rollers on Wall Street
but may soon threaten social stability among ordinary Chinese.
On December 18, the Communist Party celebrated the 30th anniversary of the
launch of former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms, which have
propelled the country into the first rank of nations and generated double-digit
economic growth in nine of the past 16 years. But China's economic juggernaut
is expected to slow to 7.5% growth next year, a level that authorities worry
could spark social unrest as exports slow, factories close and angry migrant
workers head home with little money and no hope.
Keeping a lid on social upheaval will be the main preoccupation of Chinese
leaders in 2009, which is likely to be a year filled with more trial than
triumph for China. The anniversaries alone that mark next year's calendar
indicate that there should be no shortage of drama and that potential for
crisis is rife.
Consider this: the new year will bring (let's celebrate with more Olympic-style
pyrotechnics) the 60th anniversary of the birth of the People's Republic of
China, but it will also be (let's worry with arrests of dissidents and,
possibly, violent suppression) the 20th anniversary of the June 4 Tiananmen
Square crackdown and the 50th anniversary of the flight of the Dalai Lama,
Tibet's internationally recognized spiritual leader, from his homeland
following its takeover by the Chinese.
While 2009 will not have an Olympic theme, brace yourself nevertheless for more
fireworks - both actual and metaphorical.
The wrath of Mother Nature
China's greatest enemy this past year was not those critics who unleashed a
storm of protests on its Olympic aspirations or the usual crowd of
China-bashers in the US Congress; rather, it was Mother Nature herself, who
lashed the country with its worst winter storms in 50 years and then struck
again in May with a crushing magnitude-8 earthquake centered in Sichuan
province.
A month of snow and ice storms, beginning January 10, left 129 people dead,
destroyed more than 220,000 homes and damaged another 862,000. Death of
livestock and destruction of farmland across the 19 affected provinces were
also extensive. All told, the severe weather caused losses to China's economy
estimated at 111 billion yuan (US$16.2 billion).
But it wasn't just Mother Nature who was at fault last winter. In hindsight, it
is clear that these nasty storms could have been anticipated by meteorologists
and their human and economic costs considerably reduced by a better disaster
management plan. People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers with shovels clearing
snow and ice from some of the country's major highways makes for a nice,
patriotic photograph, but it is not a plan.
In the end, Mother Nature roared and the national infrastructure failed a big
test, with millions of migrant workers, keen to go home for the Lunar New Year
holiday, stranded at rail and bus stations around the country. Let's hope this
winter will not be so bad. But, if it is, the response should go beyond
equipping PLA soldiers with shovels.
The horrible Sichuan earthquake, which struck on May 12 and was the country's
worst natural disaster in 32 years, presented another example of Mother
Nature's wrath and China's lack of preparation. Yes, this was a huge quake,
killing nearly 70,000 people, injuring hundreds of thousands and leaving
millions homeless. But a disproportionate number of those who died were
students in schools (as the quake struck at 2:38pm on a Monday) whose buildings
collapsed on them like so much tofu.
The deaths of many thousands of schoolchildren, like the fireworks that so
powerfully punctuated the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, should also be
seared into the collective memory of China in 2008. Many of them were victims
not just of a ruinous earthquake but also of the rampant corruption that allows
local officials to cheat on building materials for schools and other public
works and pocket the savings from the money they have been allotted.
Angry parents of those children continue to press their case with officials in
Sichuan but are getting nowhere. Meanwhile, reconstruction continues at a
snail's pace, and many remain homeless.
Initially, the quake was seen as an unavoidable natural disaster that, along
with the Olympics, brought people together in a show of national solidarity and
pride, although this time laced with sorrow. At a distance, however, while the
sorrow remains, the tragedy also serves to highlight the human-made disasters
that are a consequence of the deeply corrupt Chinese system of governance.
Public Enemy No. 1
In official proclamations, however, corruption is Public Enemy No. 1 and
openness, efficiency and accountability are the watchwords of today's China.
That certainly was the message that came out of the annual session of the
National People's Congress (NPC) held in March. The NPC created five new super
ministries that are supposed to streamline the country's bloated and corrupt
bureaucracy and speed along much-needed economic, social and environmental
reforms.
Don't hold your breath for dramatic results, but some of the changes should
make a positive difference in China's mammoth state bureaucracy. For example,
upgrading the State Environmental Protection Administration to a cabinet-level
ministry should give the formerly toothless tiger some real power to clean up
the nation's befouled rivers, lakes and air. But it is still not clear if the
agency will be granted a bigger budget and staff to match its new ministry
status. To be effective, it will need both.
For the most part, the other four new super ministries - for transport;
industry and information; human resources and social security; and housing and
urban-rural construction - are empty exercises in organizational restructuring
that raise more questions than they answer. The shake-up does little to address
the culture of greed and corruption that has poisoned the country's politics
and created a growing feeling of inequity and injustice among China's 1.3
billion people.
Super ministries will not create a more just society - that will require real,
people-oriented reform, and such reform can only come about through some form
of democracy leading to a better system of checks and balances on those in
power. Step by step, the Chinese leadership has continued experimenting with
its own vision of democracy, but the experiment proceeds at an exceedingly
cautious pace and the democratic model unfolding is not one that will be
recognized in the West.
Pundits who predicted that China's economic opening-up to capitalism would
inevitably lead to Western-style political reforms have so far been proven dead
wrong. One-party rule is alive and well in China. At the same time, however,
the official Xinhua News Agency reported in July that the Communist Party
leadership is looking to democratize the party by adopting a so-called “tenure
system” that would give real power to traditionally rubber-stamp delegates at
party congresses.
Under this system, the common man and woman would still, of course, be voteless
subjects under party rule, but party elites could engage in real debate over
the country's most pressing issues and, in the end, cast real,
conscience-driven votes. That change would help to balance party
decision-making and check abuses of power.
So the tenure system is a promising development, but it remains to be seen how
effectively it will be implemented. The new China is rich in policy but poor in
implementation. It would be inspiring to see that change, even a little, in
2009.
“One world, one dream”
In the final analysis, forget about everything else - the triumphant Olympic
Games defined China in the past year. Going back to 2001, when the
International Olympic Committee made its controversial selection of China as
host of the 2008 Summer Games, the criticism of that choice was both fierce and
immediate. And it continued for the next seven years, culminating in the
protests that followed the Olympic torch relay around the
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