SUN WUKONG China's year of pomp and vigilance
By Wu Zhong, China Editor
HONG KONG - While the Chinese generally like the number "eight" as it sounds
like the word for "fortune", the number "nine" may prove more significant in
the modern history of China, at least it did during the second half of the 20th
century.
Since 1949 when Mao Zedong proclaimed on Tiananmen Gate the founding of the
People's Republic of China (PRC), many major historical events have occurred in
years marked with the number "nine" at the end. These events will all mark
their decade anniversaries this year.
Decade anniversaries are important in Chinese tradition. Even the
Chinese sage Confucius said of himself: "At 30, I took my stand; at 40, I no
longer had doubts; at 50, I knew the will of the heavens; at 60, my ear was
attuned; at 70, I follow all the desires of my heart without breaking any
rule."
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities will organize grand ceremonies for
some of this year's decade anniversaries, such as the 30th anniversary of
Beijing's proposal for detente with arch rival Taiwan; the 30th anniversary of
the country's establishment of formal diplomatic relations with the United
States; and the 60th birthday of the PRC.
But other more sensitive anniversaries are more likely to unnerve them, such as
the 50th anniversary of the failed Tibetan armed rebellion against Chinese
rule, and the 20th anniversary of the crackdown on protesters in Tiananmen
Square. Chinese authorities will be making every effort to prevent any
commemorative activities for these events.
After the mammoth job of hosting last year's Summer Olympic Games, the agenda
of China's leadership this year, aside from weathering the global financial
crisis, will be dominated by organizing celebrations for the former and
preventing dissent related to the latter.
The first of the auspicious anniversaries was the January 1 marking of the 20th
anniversary of the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan" issued by the Standing
Committee of the Chinese National People's Congress (NPC) on New Year's Day in
1979. It proposed an end to military confrontation and the building of direct
links in trade, shipping and mail across the Taiwan Strait.
The "message" became an epoch-making document for China-Taiwan relations as it
marked a major shift in Beijing's policy from "liberating Taiwan [by force]" to
"peaceful reunification". It was also significant that the message was issued
during the Cold War, when both sides still occasionally engaged in military
confrontations.
In the message, Beijing said it "has already ordered the People's Liberation
Army (PLA) to stop shelling Jinmen [Kinmen] island". It also raised the
proposal for building direct cross-strait links.
Thanks to the efforts of authorities on both sides, direct links like those
called for in the message were eventually achieved at the end of 2008, after
three decades of volatile political ties. But despite the closer economic
exchanges and direct links, two major political issues remain for leaders on
both sides. One is Taiwan's plan to join international organizations, while the
other is the signing of a peace accord and the establishment of a military and
security mutual-trust mechanism.
Chinese President Hu Jintao hopes to make breakthroughs. In a speech at a
function in Beijing marking the 30th anniversary of the NPC message on January
3, Hu said that "reasonable and fair arrangements" for Taiwan's international
activities can be made through cross-strait negotiations as long as "two
Chinas" and "one China one Taiwan" were not created.
On the second issue, he said that both sides could start pragmatic studies on
how to develop their political relations under the current status quo.
Apparently, Hu's ambition is to make more progress toward the goal of "peaceful
reunification" based on what has been achieved in the past three decades.
This year's New Year's Day also marked the 30th anniversary of the
establishment of China-US diplomatic ties. Sino-US relations are the most
important of China's external ties, and their establishment was not only a
landmark event in the two countries' relations, but also marked China's
"opening up" to the world. After 30 years of development, Sino-US relations
have become quite mature, and with Barack Obama soon to be sworn in as the new
US president, Beijing is hoping for further progress.
But this year also marks the 50th anniversary of March 10, 1959, when
supporters of the Dalai Lama started an armed rebellion against Chinese rule in
the Himalayan region which was quickly crushed by the PLA. Fleeing Tibet, the
Dalai Lama and his administration arrived in India on March 31, and have
remained there in exile ever since.
On March 10, 2008, some Tibetan lamas in Lhasa and elsewhere took to the
streets to mark what they called "Uprising Day". Other Tibetans joined them in
the following days with the unrest escalating into riots on March 14, which
attracted wide attention at home and abroad ahead of the Beijing Games. Olympic
flame relays in many Western cities were dogged by Tibetan independence
activists and their supporters.
Tibetans in exile are planning to hold grand commemorate activities this year,
including massive protests. (See
Tibetans in exile still hold their dream, Asia Times Online, December
16, 2008.) Having drawn bitter lessons from last year, Beijing will be more
vigilant and is likely to take wide reaching preventive measures.
The looming anniversary also could partly explain why Beijing was so furious
over French President Nicolas Sarkozy's meeting with the Dalai Lama last month.
(See China plays Tibet
card to the full, Asia Times Online, December 10, 2008).
Given the background, it is interesting to notice an article on the website of
the state-run Xinhua News Agency reporting that Chinese authorities have
decided to station firefighters in major Tibetan temples. The official
explanation is that these temples are wooden structures which could easily
catch fire, but this could easily just be a pretext. In China, firefighters are
also soldiers of the paramilitary People's Armed Police (PAP).
Tibetan lamas are known to be more supportive of the Dalai Lama, and they often
are leaders of pro-Dalai activities in Tibet. Through being stationed in
temples, PAP firefighters could help keep an eye on the lamas and crack down on
any "illegal" activities. In any case, the presence of the PAP soldiers itself
is a deterrence and placing them in Tibetan temples could be regarded as an
early preventive measure by Beijing.
Twenty years on, the June 4 anniversary of the Tiananmen square uprising is
another date the authorities would prefer people forgot. Ahead of the
anniversary, they have already taken measures to crack down on any activity
that could remind people of the event two decades ago.
In November, the authorities put pressure on the publisher of the outspoken
monthly magazine Yanhuang Chunqiu (Annals of Emperors Yan and Huang) to stand
down, after it printed an article praising Zhao Ziyang, the Communist Party
chief who was purged after the June 4 crackdown in 1989 for his sympathies
towards the protesting students at Tiananmen. (See
China's party hardliners want the last word, Asia Times Online,
November 22, 2008.)
On December 8, the authorities arrested dissident writer Liu Xiaobo after he
took part in a high-profile signature campaign that called for more freedoms
and political reform. Liu is a prominent critic of the government who was
imprisoned for 20 months for participating in the Tiananmen pro-democracy
movement.
He was taken by police shortly after "Charter 08", a document calling for
greater civil rights and an end to the political dominance of the Communist
Party, was circulated online to mark International Human Rights Day and the
60th Anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. On the same
night, another prominent signatory of the declaration, Zhang Zuhua, a
constitutional law expert, was detained for 12 hours on suspicion of "inciting
the subversion of state sovereignty".
As of this week, dozens of others across China who have also signed the
declaration have been interrogated by the authorities, according to rights
activists. (See China
kills chickens to frighten monkeys, Asia Times Online, December 20,
2008.)
It can be expected that all dissenting voices and activities will be quashed in
the run-up to the June 4 anniversary.
Last, but not least, there is the 60th birthday of the PRC on October 1.
According to Chinese tradition, the 60th birthday is the most important in
one's life, hence the 60th National Day for the country. In addition to other
national celebrations, Beijing plans to hold a grand military parade at
Tiananmen.
PLA soldiers are now busy practicing parade steps and Hu will review the parade
in his capacity as chairman of the Central Military Commission. This will mark
his political career reaching its apex, as it did for his predecessor Jiang
Zemin when he reviewed the military parade of 1999.
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